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KoalaBeer

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Posts posted by KoalaBeer

  1. Radars evolving nicely for this front end thump. Surprised I'm forecast to get 12 inches here starting in a few hours but am still under a WWA. Guess it's a duration thing but can't say I've ever seen that before.

    Got to run to the store though, moved this summer and realizing I have no idea were my snow brushes are for the cars.

  2. 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    This is what ENE climo does to snow chances Dec 1 to 4

     

    And people here were complaining about heated walkways at ski areas...imagine they started clearing the parking lots with this thing. 

    Anyways our eventual system is impressive on the west coast, not every day you see a 974mb pressure in OR in November.

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=K4S1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

     

    • Thanks 1
  3. 33 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

    Ha, I doubt it. Heat does not kill more than winter. Accidents and fatalities in vehicles directly related to winter driving alone would probably surpass all heat-related deaths.

    Believe what you want but the statistics don't back it up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave#Mortality

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/26/europes-killer-heat-waves-are-new-norm-death-rates-shouldnt-be/

     

  4. 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

    And a lot of people die in the heat and high dews that you crave. 

    Not to mention with the improved lead time and warnings we have now it thankfully makes it harder to obtain a fatality toll like 78. Heat definitely kills more, but it's a lot harder to put a number on it.

  5. Quite the sever outbreak across OK AND TX ongoing...that Dallas cell :unsure:

     Mesoscale Discussion 2091
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       0908 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
    
       Areas affected...North Dallas Metropolitan Area
    
       Concerning...Tornado Watch 676...
    
       Valid 210208Z - 210245Z
    
       The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 676 continues.
    
       SUMMARY...Tornado is currently ongoing across northern Dallas
       County. The environment is supportive of a strong tornado, with
       additional tornadoes possible downstream in the next hour or so.
    
       DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KFWS reveal an intense
       supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity between
       60 and 65 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on
       recent radar scans. This signature is occurring in an environment
       characterized by STP between 3 and 4. Previous signatures within
       similar environments produced damage-estimated wind speeds from 120
       to 160 mph and a confidence is high for an intense tornado.
    
       ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/21/2019
  6.  
       Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
    
       SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage/tornado threat may develop across
       parts of southern New England this evening. The threat should remain
       below levels needed for watch issuance.
    
       DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
       lower Great Lakes region. A plume of mid-level moisture is located
       across northern New York and New England with a dry slot moving
       northeastward into the Northeast. Ahead of the dry slot, a broad
       area of rainfall is located from eastern New York into southern New
       England. At the surface, a rapidly deepening low is located just
       south of New York City. The RAP is analyzing a corridor of
       instability from near New Jersey extending well offshore.
       Thunderstorms are developing on the northern edge of this
       instability to the south of Long Island. This convection is forecast
       to move north-northeastward across southern New England over the
       next few hours. The WSR-88D VWP show a strong shear profile with 0-6
       km shear near 60 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. In spite of the
       weak instability, the shear environment suggests that the stronger
       cells at the back edge of the rain shield may be able to rotate.
       These cells may become strong enough for a marginal wind damage and
       isolated tornado threat as they move across far southern New England
       this evening.

    84588930-AB83-4C0D-B37A-25EFCAA4BEA9.gif

  7. 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

    26 pages deep, if this were mid winter almost no one would give a hoot. I think we (most of us) are bored and waiting for winter, i know i am.

    To be fair a 975mb low doesn’t cut inland across the state often in winter either. Lack of mixing is inhibiting this from being a more significant event. 

  8. FWIW BOX is going with 35-50 kt gusts on the coastal plain right now. I don't think that's an unreasonable forecast.

    These never seem to work out here in NW Essex county however. I'll pretty much always take the under on these events for wind in these parts. October 29-30 2017 was an exception here though, LWM gusted to 51mph before it stopped reporting. I would guess we had a few 65/70 gusts that night. Surprisingly that event doesn't get talked abut much as it was an interesting setup. Those big pines were snapping all over that night.

     

    SfcMap_09Z_Oct302017.gif

    Oct30Wind.png

    MEthuenWindDamage.jpeg

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