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KoalaBeer

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Posts posted by KoalaBeer

  1. 2 hours ago, vman722 said:

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1130856609847005184

    Some good reading if you're interested in some theory/explanation of the failure modes that led to a lack of a historic outbreak yesterday. Edwards is one of the forecasters that did the 13z outlook so definitely some valuable insight. 

    Found this through a page on the Target Area of Storm Track if anyone is interested in exploring the topic further. Some very interesting points from Jeff Duda discussing the event, one thing that stuck out to me was his discussion of the very deep nearly saturated inflow layer and its impacts along with general severe weather enthusiasts (such as myself) over reliance on the HRRR and the importance of utilizing various tools and different CAM's. Defintiely a thread worth a read. 

    https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2019-05-20-event-tx-ok-ks.30833/page-2

    Really valuable insight thanks for sharing that.

    Also it currently looks like that cell by Mansfield, MO is producing right now according to the TOR warning.

     

    Tornado Warning

    Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Springfield MO
    312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019
    
    MOC067-229-212030-
    /O.COR.KSGF.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-190521T2030Z/
    Douglas MO-Wright MO-
    312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019
    
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
    NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN WRIGHT COUNTIES...
    
    At 311 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Ava, moving
    northeast at 60 mph. At 307 PM CDT there was a public report 2
    northwest of Ava.
    
    HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.
    
    SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.
    
    IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
             shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
             to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
             likely.
    
    Locations impacted include...
    Ava...                            Mansfield...
    Norwood...                        Hartville...
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
    basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
    building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
    a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
    yourself from flying debris.
    
    &&
    
    LAT...LON 3702 9278 3707 9273 3707 9268 3711 9268
          3729 9250 3710 9229 3695 9267
    TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 227DEG 52KT 3705 9269
    
    TORNADO...OBSERVED
    HAIL...1.75IN
    
    $$
    
    Perez
    

     

  2. 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Well yeah there's that too. I'm sure we get our own version of the 'once in 500 ... 10,000' year gig going... One can only wonder what the upper limit really is relative to hillier terrain. 

    The last significant flood spring I can recall was 2010, March. 4-5" inches per coastal storm, three proper, inside of three weeks tends to send creeks and rivers over b-ful. 

    Prior to that ... the 2006 Mother's Day weekend deal in the Merrimack Valley area - I don't know if that particular event really included anywhere else.  Could be wrong but I think that was pretty confined to NE Mass and southern NH associated the Merrimack River getting angry over a cut-off low's inflow channel being aimed right at the White Mountain..  Having graduated from UML, the years I spent there I often wondered if the Pawtucket spill/ledge would ever 'disappear.'  I'd have to revisit the scene 10 years later to see it finally happen... Extraordinary visage... 15 to 20' drop almost level with barely a gravity wave over top-

    Enjoying all the flood talk in here today. 2006 was bad up here. The Spicket river had roads closed everywhere in Methuen/Salem NH. Pretty sure I had a lot of days off of school because the High School was being used as a shelter and the buses couldn't run many of there routes.

    A kid I went to High School with made this video of it. Excuse the overly dramatic music.....

    Incidentally I missed the massive 1,000 year flood in Boulder Colorado in 2013 by only a few days as I was moving back to Mass. I was bummed to not see it as a weather geek but from what my roommates showed me I'm glad at the same time. The house we were living in got hit hard and my room was in the basement which got flooded out.

    On another note anyone notice all the Radars went down on weather.gov? Working fine on my phone on RadarScope however.

     

    Screen Shot 2019-04-29 at 6.12.43 PM.png

  3. 2 hours ago, dendrite said:

    If you don't like the weather in New England wait 5 minutes....

     

    Yeah right. The interior puts us to shame.

    I realized this rather quickly after living in Denver and then Boulder for about 4 years (steamboat for a year as well during there second snowiest winter on record, that was fun.) I remember one day being mid 70's in Denver and the next day a full on blizzard. In a synoptic view though I'm still more interested in Nor'easters and New England weather in general. Those obs out of DIA are just crazy though.

  4. Anyone think this could be a paste job for some and cause some power issues? I can’t shake the thought of March7/8th last year here. 10 inches of  straight man snow up in this area and you can still see the tree damage out there from it today. 

  5. Garbage can catastrophe out there. LWM peak gust is only 48mph so far but things seem to be winding down here. Not to shabby but I was expecting more. Not trying to downplay some of the higher gusts at ORH that were pretty impressive but I think my expectations are set high after Oct 29/30 2017 and the March 2018 paste job that rivaled the damage in the 2008 ice storm here. Really trying to find LWM data for the Oct event with no luck(any help much appreciated.) I think we would have had to gusted to 65-70 with the damage I had in my hood.

  6. 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    Big damage event here first of 4 in 17 /18

     

    3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Lost power for about 12 hours in that event in 2017. 

    I think I was at about a week in West Methuen. No hospitals or even a convenience  store on my grid. To bad that came in the middle of the night. I got some photos somewhere of a line of power poles snapped in two in town I’ll dig up. I don’t expect this too be nearly as damaging. 

  7. Bretton Woods was very firm Monday and it had some dangerous spots, but sticking close the side of the trail was the go to move. Loon Tuesday was a bit better but only stayed over on the Kancamagus Quad as I was demoing next years equipment for work so I can't speak for the rest of the mountain. Speaking with coworkers who stayed on Wednesday it sounds like things were much better. Hopefully they stay mostly snow up there this storm and can maintain conditions because the pack is deep!

  8. Just now, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

    Snowed firmly yet gently through the evening, ended up with ~4" of fairly powdery snow this morning. 

    Ya about the same here. Was surprised they didn't put up a WWA last night for western essex once it became clear we were staying cold and not flipping.

    What's everyone's best guess for timing on the snow squalls later for eastern mass? The gf is thinking of leaving work at 3 to avoid what could be a hairy commute.

  9. That was some insane sleet earlier up here. Not sure I've ever seen it sleet that hard for that long of a duration. At one point it looked as if someone was standing on my roof pouring gallons of sugar off of it. That alone made this event memorable for me. I would love to see what some of the soundings from today looked like around this area. 

  10. Missed out on any squalls today but it's blowing good out there. Seems every bit as windy as when we had that high wind warning up not long ago. I've always been curious as why those warnings bust so much...what's the criteria again for High Wind Warning? Sustained at 40 with gusts to 58 if I remember correct? We never seem to hit that when issued a warning, at least in my location.

  11. As much as I love the idea of a good storm I could do without it next week. How it's easy to forget there are still people up here in Andover/Lawrence without there heat turned back on from the gas explosions. I imagine any storm is just going to be a set back for them completing the work.

    Hopefully the mountains get in on some action later in December because they got a good base up there. Riding conditions on Saturday were phenomenal and I don't think I ever left the trees. We can score here later in the season.

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