CheeselandSkies

Gonna sit tight in Davis Jct., IL for a little while.

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Found the NOAA one.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=umv

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol same

Tropical Tidbits has a CONUS visible loop. I can't zoom in on the Midwest region but you can see some clearing nosing into NW IL.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=vis_swir

COD visible loop is stuck at 15:16Z (10:16 AM CDT) for some reason, anyone have another good source for satellite?

...at first I thought that recovery wasn't gonna happen.

This is what I meant with my (partially) tounge-in-cheek observation; that predictability of severe weather in the summer is such that even as recently as the overnight hours, today was looking like a wash for severe potential north of I-80 in IL.

The flip side of this of course, is that it makes it near impossible to plan chases/take PTO in advance. For me, it's local enough that I can head out with my 3A-noon shift.

6 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

The details...

...Northern IL/southern WI east to northwest OH/southern lower MI...

   Current MCS continues a general weakening trend based on IR cloud
   tops, radar trends and recent reports. Air mass recovery in the wake
   of the morning convection currently appears plausible, aided by a
   modestly enhanced low-level jet later this afternoon and evening.
   Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/pockets
   of strong MLCAPE this afternoon, and coupled with 40-50 kts of
   deep-layer shear would result in a favorable parameter space for
   supercell development by late afternoon/early evening with all
   severe hazards possible. Will introduce a small 5 percent tornado
   probability area across this region, where forecast sounding
   hodograph structure appears most favorable for low-level
   rotation/tornado potential east of a weak surface low. 

Hmmm...

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

did u screw hole?

That front part of the main echo northwest of the Quad Cities almost looks like a huge supercell with debris ball...almost.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

No more rain for us.

Looks like some stuff is pushing into at least southwest WI after all...we'll see how well it holds together.

Enhanced risk upgrade for wind with the Iowa MCS, looks like a miss south again for I-80 and north.

Models yesterday showing rain/storms over southern WI this morning were completely wrong. The sun's out.

At least it looks good for rain and thunder tomorrow morning. If this MCS were better-timed we'd have greater severe chances, but we'll take what we can get at this point.

Pinning my hopes on the general level of predictability for severe weather in the summer...

12 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Any thoughts on severe potential Tuesday/Wednesday?

Pretty weak north of wherever the second MCS on Wednesday tracks, which as @hawkeye_wx alluded to in another thread, will probably be further south than most of us would like.

Sadly, just the fact that there's a pretty good chance for thunder is better than we've done for most of this year.

Edit: NAM now has even the first MCS going south of the state line Wednesday morning.

7 hours ago, DLMKA said:

If you were in that spot today it would be blocked by a Dollar General.

Yup. Google Street View shows it was there by July of 2018.

16 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Well if it makes you feel any better my 2016 chase season peaked even earlier on March 15th with the Good Hope IL nader lol.

Caught a twilight glimpse of the Trivoli EF2 from the Casey's gas station on the west edge of Hanna City that day. I wanted to stay put and shoot it, or even drive a little north up IL-78 to try and get around the tree line, but my chase partner at the time (who was driving) freaked out a bit and wanted to keep driving east to stay ahead of it. So we let it go in the darkness and never did see it again.

8 hours ago, frostfern said:

Still feels like miss south will be the rule for me with the frontal zone refusing to push north of I-80.  High latitude Greenland block is good for shear/baroclinicity this time of year, but the constantly bad MJO / ENSO phase combo keeps the SE ridge from ever really flexing. 

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking.

Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our season to start and finish.

Actually looking like we might get more rain than expected late this afternoon and tonight...

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Severe thunderstorm warning for a little pop-up hailer.

Timed just perfectly to pour on my 10-minute commute home from work. We'll take what we can get, but these teensy popcorn things ain't gonna make a dent in this drought.

SPC has much of WI highlighted in the Day 4 outlook. They're the professionals, but I'm not really seeing it. NAM/GFS soundings for Wednesday look pretty mediocre. Could be some isolated wind/hail but not worthy of a Day 4 areal highlight IMO.

3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Its annoying not being able to make anything out due to the smoke.  I’m hearing thunder but its so hazy.

Yeah. I thought that was only ever gonna be an issue when trying to chase the Plains with Mexican fire smoke blowing in. 5/20/2019, the updraft base of the supercell that was about to produce the Mangum, OK EF2 crossed US 62 1-2 miles west of me and I couldn't make out any structure whatsoever. Thus I waited too long to move, got caught in the chaser conga line and never did see the tornado.

Still bone @$$ dry in southern WI. Lawns that are not being constantly watered have been brown for several weeks.

Speaking of the devil, random tornado warning for Bureau County, IL. Even if anything were to happen, it'd be totally rain-wrapped.

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

We are gonna have an upcoming month one year with like 10-20 events.

It'll probably happen when we're short-staffed where I work and I can't take any PTO.

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Jelly

I just don't understand how northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin can get a significant severe weather event at the end of March, and then can't buy one for all of May and June.

Visibility here was less than a mile.  AQI 300.

Up to 198.

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