CheeselandSkies

I think today merits its own thread at this point.

 

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26 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It will be I-94 and south again unless the MCV that develops can draw the juice back north.

Which is fine by me since I-94 runs right through Madison.

06Z 3K NAM seems to have a little better handle on the current IL stuff (although I think still weaker with it than reality) than the HRRR, and it fires discrete sups in southwestern WI by 22Z.

Not sure why SPC would introduce a 2% region at 1730Z yesterday, only to remove it with the first SWODY1 today.

Did not expect the severe storms in Illinois overnight. Thought if we were going to get anything tonight it would be the northern WI complex diving south.

Dunno if I ever recall seeing 500mb heights exceed 600 dam before, even on a GFS fantasy range forecast. Usually the highest I see is 594.

28 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Wow, just checked 00z and yeah, would be a higher end event for most of the sub. Southeast Wisconsin just absolutely mutilated. Check out some of the UD Helicity Swaths maxing out the scale over Grafton and West Bend. Impressive.

HRRR probably a pretty realistic outcome with the instability in place and the 50kt LLJ punching from the west around dark. Going to be a busy night.

Batten down the palms.

Nothing like a 4/26/91 analog over your house in Wisconsin...in late July.

Convective mode likely won't allow for something like that, but wow.

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

A nice overlap of hot temps and high DP's once again today in Western Illinois.

It's currently 98/82/122 in Macomb.

No heatwave bust there!

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment.

They introduced a 2% in the 1730Z update. MS River at WI/IL line to western third of Lake Erie.

Depending on MCV placement/timing, I could see tomorrow becoming one of those sneaky summer sig events for somewhere in our region. Given the forecast heat, LCL could become an issue, but dewpoints should be in the 70s. This could be a case where a little cloud cover might actually help if you're looking for a chase.

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment.

In addition to that, the 12Z HRRR fires storms in southern WI Friday afternoon/evening, which last night's 00Z (first run to be in range) wasn't doing.

Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment.

18Z NAM at FH054 remains quite interesting for Friday evening at FH054 with very strong low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs, a modest/breakable cap, and >5,000 j/kg MLCAPE in parts of S WI/N IL.

The surface chart appears to depict the reason for these enhanced hodographs as a sort of secondary surface low near the MS river, out ahead of the main one which it depicts over the IA/NE border.

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Full sun popped us to 90/78/104. Will see if the boundary working south can initiate something. 

Would be tempting but it's even more in the heart of the metro than 7/12 was. Got lucky to glimpse the Plato/Elgin twins just before they moved into the zone of solid urban cul-de-sacs/trees/traffic.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1730.html

25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’s a race of time right now.

Potent MCV continues steadily moving east across S WI. The window of opportunity is fairly small, before it moves too far east to be of help for development.

Shall see how it goes here over the next two hours.


.

Overachieved a bit this morning with I think three rounds of severe-warned cells moving through southern Wisconsin. Shouldn't have been a surprise, really. SPC would have done well to leave the slight risk they introduced with the first Day 2 yesterday in place, or at least leave the entire area in a marginal instead of just the eastern half.

Several reports of wind damage, especially in Rock County. Not all of them have made the LSRs on SPC's page, yet.

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

friday evening looking solid

Was about to post on this but then got super busy at work (live severe wx cut-ins among other things).

Interesting tension among first whiff CAM solutions...3K NAM has a rather volatile environment over S WI/N IL at 00Z Friday Saturday, but no convection. FV3 meanwhile has a huge derecho blowing through.

10 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Latest 12z HRDPS showing a look similar to the Chicago double Derecho on June 30, 2014 except further east

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20140630

Ah. That was a classic Lieowa day. I was chasing out there in the 15% hatched / double-digit STP bullseye, but it blew up into an insta-squall.

Southern WI removed from the slight risk on the updated Day 2. Lame, but could see it coming based on the model trends. Amazing how literally everything this year has skipped us, except for 3/31 when I was in Iowa going after the bigger fish ( ).

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That *is* a pretty powerhouse system being depicted on the NAM. Not too often you see tornado-favorable soundings valid for 15Z (10 AM) in this neck of the woods.

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

Very curious to see how Wednesday will unfold.. very good directional shear. DTX and KIWX had some nice updates

Need that system to either slow down or speed up by 12 hours.

Crazy amounts of smoke here at the surface all day today. Must be wild for all the GA planes flying VFR into EAA

Yeah. They said it was mostly gonna stay aloft...
I didn't check a whole lot, but I didn't see an AQI number on my phone today like I did for several consecutive days during the really bad smoke outbreak almost a month ago.

Edit: There is one on there; just saw it tick from 160 to 161.

Yes it's the tail end of its range but the latest NAM for Thursday evening is...interesting.

GFS has hints of the same general system for at least the last couple of runs. Of course the crucial details of the convective environment are gonna be all over the place at this range/at this time of year.

18 minutes ago, Baum said:

Yeah, we didn't get that flavor.

Lucky you.

Fairly p***ing rain on the southwest side now. Airport might not see much if anything out of this.

Nice little rumbler rolling through right now.

2 hours ago, Baum said:

i like it better when I can smell the smoke. Makes me feel like I'm camping on those early mornings when you can still smell the night befores campfire. 

Not really. The couple of days in late June it was thick enough for me to smell on the ground here it smelled like burnt plastic, not like a campfire at all.