CheeselandSkies

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

We are gonna have an upcoming month one year with like 10-20 events.

It'll probably happen when we're short-staffed where I work and I can't take any PTO.

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Jelly

I just don't understand how northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin can get a significant severe weather event at the end of March, and then can't buy one for all of May and June.

Visibility here was less than a mile.  AQI 300.

Up to 198.

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As much as I like to blame climate change, I do wonder if some of this isn't being caused or exacerbated by arsonists and woke firefighting policies.

Up to 190 now. Of course my wallpaper is the Keota tornado.

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AQI 186 at Madison according to my phone. Worst I've ever seen. Can smell that "burnt plastic," too and my nose isn't very sensitive so if I can smell it it's bad.

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Yeah, GFS and now NAM suggesting any potential late week RoF will set up a little further south than most I-80 and north folks would like.

29 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Definitely worse now

Much worse for WI. We'd barely even started at this point that year!

Looks like I was, in fact, a week too early in taking my vacation. At least I'll get to chase Saturday. I'd be even more annoyed if yesterday/Monday had produced something good.

7 hours ago, Quincy said:

Active pattern coming up for High Plains severe threats. Wednesday focuses on eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Thursday should be somewhat farther south.

As stronger upper level flow ejects eastward, Friday has the potential to feature a widespread severe threat from much of the High Plains, eastward into parts of Kansas and possibly even Oklahoma. The signal is strong, not necessarily for a high end event, but for a relatively expansive area with severe potential. 

Unfortunately I can't chase Friday, but keeping a close eye on Saturday/potentially Sunday further east.

3 hours ago, Quincy said:

It’s been a tough season for Kansas and Nebraska. I’ve been chasing quite a bit this year, but only a few select events in Kansas. Barely in Nebraska at all, only a couple of the far southwest counties, briefly.*

Hoping for some Northern Plains action today and tomorrow. Today could feature a supercell or two in eastern Montana. Tomorrow looks like quick-to-linear over the Dakotas.

Beyond that, the pattern is kind of funky. Sure, enhanced upper level flow over the Northern Rockies, but another cutoff low over the Southeast means a fairly nebulous severe pattern. Maybe a couple of events over the High Plains, but not much to the east over the lower elevations.

There might finally be an ejecting shortwave by Friday/Saturday, but I’ll hold my breath on that. 

Don't do that, you'll turn blue (I assume you meant to say won't hold my breath on that)!

A cursory glance at the 12Z GFS suggests this coming Saturday could hold some potential, but as you say it's a wait-and-see game at this point.

* May 12 was pretty good in northeast Nebraska. It's the one day this year I didn't chase that I regret not going, but again I didn't see such high potential in a weakening cutoff to warrant a PTO day, especially since I'd already burned one the previous Monday so I could chase western Iowa the evening of Sunday 5/7 (which wasn't a bad chase, remains the most recent thunderstorm I've seen this year, but turned out to not have the tornado potential it looked like it would the night before which led me to ask off last minute).

6 hours ago, Quincy said:

The 00z JAN sounding signifies a once in a generation type of setup for meteorological summer. (I do realize it’s not a prominent EML, but still, yet another absurd sounding for June). 

The last time we had a June pattern like this was 1998. Before that, you have to go back to the 70s. 

If only it could have been from like I-70 in Kansas on northward. I suppose I could have chased Texas last week and maybe seen some decent stuff (or maybe destroyed my wife's 2021 Hyundai Santa Fe with hail), but I really didn't want to go that far and had my doubts that far south would actually produce this time of year. If it was a month earlier, it would have been a no-brainer.

I guess Keota will have to tide me over until next year, barring a major and unforeseen summer pattern change for the Midwest. In previous years, I didn't even have anything like that.

Finally getting a classic mid-June northwest flow supercell/ event in...Mississippi.

20 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Papin ~10 years ago said the GFS uses a simplifying assumption on the latent heat of condensation such that any area of storms that persist will become warm core in the model.  Dr. Knabb on THC about 3 days ago said the GFS was picking up on the CAG (I'd call it more of a monsoon trough extending through CA into South America than a classic slop gyre.)  That can spin up an Atlantic TC, but more likely to spin up something that develops in the Pacific.

If this was a known issue ten years ago, why hasn't it been fixed on any of the subsequent updates to the model?

Just your casual medium-probability development zone off the coast of Africa on...June 16th.

I was out and about in rural southern Wisconsin (away from Madison, where everybody has been constantly watering for the last 5 weeks at least) today and most of the grass is totally brown. We had two, maybe three weeks at the most of nice spring green this year.

Just now, hardypalmguy said:

Next 240 hours looks fun.

Hardcore facepalm.

Sky already has that milky look to it due to smoke in the upper levels. This after all-day overcast, showers, and low 60s yesterday. Easily the dullest May-June of my adult life. Last thunder I heard was still because of the storms I chased on 5/7.

If not for 3/31, I think this would have been the year that finally killed my interest in weather.

On 6/12/2023 at 10:06 AM, Powerball said:

This Summer so far is definitely giving shades of 1992.

Except lacking this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_June_14–18,_1992

The fun never stops. SPC already throwing cold water on Father's Day weekend into the following week.

  Late this weekend through early next week, latest medium-range
   guidance appears to be trending toward the evolution of another
   prominent high in the southern Hudson Bay to upper Great Lakes
   vicinity, subsequent to mid/upper trough amplification over the
   interior West.  This may be accompanied by generally weakening flow
   across much of the U.S., and a return to sparser, less organized
   daily severe weather potential.

   ..Kerr.. 06/13/2023

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

brutal and getting worse quick, our own regional wildfires can't be far away, especially with the 4th right there around the corner

It's 1871 all over again...

Maybe seeing a smidgen of consistency on the last few GFS runs that somewhere in southeastern Kansas could be interesting next Tuesday, with a potentially significant threat in the mid-South on Wednesday (Rather than haul @$$ for this I might chase lesser potential portrayed over portions of KS/NE for that day). Still far out but some eyebrow-raising EHI values being shown over the NE/IA/KS/MO confluence region on multiple consective runs for next Friday with a system that comes in behind the first one. Consistency falls apart pretty quickly for Father's Day weekend with wild run-to-run differences in how that second system is handled beyond Friday 6/16.

Mentioned this on other forums but the signal was consistent enough on the CFS from 500+ hours out, that I asked for next week off a week ago. Still lots of details TBD.

6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

@CheeselandSkiescould be worse.  We could have endless cut offs parked over us like New England.

True.