CheeselandSkies

Had my eye on SD for possibly Friday for a few days now, but much like a similar situation for last Friday it looks to be trending down with time. Low-level shear looks decent at least over a small area but upper-level winds (above 500mb) are quite weak. Could have storms drowning their own updrafts with precip.

I don't MIND chasing the northern Plains (in fact I rather prefer it due to relative proximity to me and less likelihood of crowds), but I'd rather it be south of the international border.

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all. Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out. I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

He's yelling "Spin, damn you!"

So now the question becomes, how did the weeklies get bamboozled so badly back when things were supposedly looking up for the 3rd and 4th weeks of May? Are they biased towards climo or what?

Yeah. Honestly, after hitting rock bottom over the weekend, things are looking up a bit for the coming weekend into the following week. Should be at least a few opportunities. Saturday in particular has my eye now that the GFS actually forms a surface low.

Mulling over some NAM forecast soundings for Friday over KS/NE (obviously still at the very end of its range so take it for what it's worth). The biggest weakness I see is of course the modest deep layer shear. However low level directional shear and mid-level lapse rates look quite good. Still not sure if I'll bite on it, but based off that Euro run Friday-Saturday would be the only play of my vacation window. If only that 500mb shortwave with the small pockets of 45-50kt southwesterlies could be a little faster (on the GFS, too). It seems to want to lag the warm sector until the cap is filling in after dark, however that could imply a small window of time shortly after 0z when everything lines up. As we saw on the 1st, sometimes that's all it takes.

Sad when New York is getting better action than the Plains/Midwest in mid-May.

CFS still really wants to bring a small area of 50kt SW flow to parts of KS/NE next Saturday. GFS also has it but has been very consistent with an ugly crashing cold front surface pattern and no SLP really able to wrap up. So we go from February in April, to July in early-mid May, back to April in mid-late May? Seems legit.

Meanwhile south of Wichita... Probably won't be anything long-lasting or too photogenic, but the storm's reflectivity presentation looks lovely.

I hear that. Of course, I said the same thing for the days of Dodge City and Chapman that one week in 2016. I was laser-focused on that Thursday and...yeah. The problem for me is that those days, by themselves, looking as they did even 2 days out wouldn't be enough to get me from WI to western KS, even if I had been off that week.

They had that in there yesterday, too (same forecaster IIRC). GFS continues to look at least moderately interesting over NC/NE KS for next Saturday, so I'm surprised they didn't at least throw in a "predictability too low" for that. Yeah there is some 700-500mb VBV in here but decent turning below 700mb and very strong instability.

Next weekend actually doesn't look entirely awful on the GFS, this morning's 12Z run had a 2-day play from KS to the Midwest on Saturday-Sunday. The surface pattern doesn't look stellar but at least there's 500mb flow above 30kt overlapping some instability.

Ah, but therein lies the problem for those of us who just don't have the luxury to chase all of them.

Even reading between the lines of Kerr's last few Day 4-8 convective outlooks, you can detect some degree of "WTF atmosphere, it's May?!" Friday: Yesterday: Today:

GFS at around hour 156 doesn't look too terrible, if that shortwave in KS were a tad faster or the one in Iowa a tad slower. Still, it is frustrating not to see a broad belt of AOA 40kt SW flow overspreading that massive reservoir of instability.

That...is delightful.

Looks like my dart at the calender (May 18-27) might work out. Hard not to sweat each run of the CFS and GFS, even though at 9+ days out most of my vacation is still in model fantasyland. At least the trends are encouraging.

I take it you are Jeff House on Stormtrack?

CFS took a little bit of a dump on the chase prospects for my vacation that I booked on Monday for May 18-27 after several straight runs of it showed at least one trough moving across the central CONUS during that timeframe (what I based my decision on). Still should be at least one opportunity, whether it's good enough to draw me out remains to be seen.

FWIW (which hasn't been a whole lot of late*), SPC saw fit to introduce a risk area for Days 6 and 7 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The former extends into Iowa. *Wording for Day 7 event hints at a more ominous look for the Plains, which coming from someone other than Broyles carries a little more weight in my mind.

Well lookie there, spring at last!

I would love to be proven wrong, but it's hard to be optimistic looking at the models now and having to clear my car off before I can go to work for the second time this week on April 19th.

*Sigh.* Already steeling myself for another wasted spring. What does it take to get an active severe pattern this decade (after the extremes of April 2011, of course)? La Nina, El Nino, anomalous warmth, anomalous cold, nothing works. Need to see a year where events like June 16th-18th, 2014, April 9th, 2015 and May 24th-25th, 2016 are part of a sustained pattern and not just diamonds in the rough...and this isn't going to be it.

Can I rage quit the atmosphere?