DanLarsen34

That’s the largest day 3 moderate risk I’ve ever seen.

Exactly. The language in the outlook can adequately convey the level of the potential threat that far out without having to issue a high risk. Moderates are rare enough as it is for Day 3.

People in the SE forum have already been highlighting just how significant the threat could be on Sunday. Synoptically obvious outbreak set-up. Low position is about as favorable as you’ll see for a Dixie outbreak. Models converging on higher-end solutions right now. Speed and directional shear are very high-end. CAPE is still in the moderate range (1,000-2,000 j/kg) on models, but that may not be a significant mitigator. It’s more than sufficient for an outbreak. We could be dealing with a major tornado outbreak across LA, MS, and AL on Sunday.

One thing that jumps out to me in the model runs right now is that instability, though sufficient for an outbreak of tornadoes, isn’t off the charts. That’s one distinct difference from the 4-27 comparison that was tossed out there. The speed and directional shear, however, is highly concerning. Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple of model runs.

Can’t post the radar image, but looks like we might be in business in Illinois now.

“Everything” was doing more work than I intended here. I’ll edit the post because I agree with this.

Murphy’s law has applied to these past couple of big on-paper set-ups. Things begin to look like they’re a go until we get to the day of. Not saying this set-up can’t still be potent today, but it looks a lot less certain that we’ll be seeing an significant outbreak than it did 24 hours ago.

From earlier this morning.

Velocity couplet is included in the image that’s embedded in the tweet.

We JUST missed a disaster in Abilene last night. This is about as textbook of a violent tornado presentation on radar as you’re ever going to see.

Uh oh...

This cell is bonkers. It’s had at least two well-defined couplets for several scans. Now, there might be three!

There hasn’t been a substantial CC drop yet, but there’s definitely a major tornado in progress.

I’m a little surprised this forum has been quiet. The long-range models are suggesting we could be looking at the most active stretch of severe weather we’ve had since 2011. Right now, the models are depicting several days of favorable flow across the plains from May 19-26 with ample moisture and instability. Obviously, there’s still a ways to go, but I’ve seen some of the most reserved meteorologists I know starting to highlight this period as potentially being a May 2003 or May 2008 sequence if everything comes together.