DanLarsen34

That’s the largest day 3 moderate risk I’ve ever seen.

Exactly. The language in the outlook can adequately convey the level of the potential threat that far out without having to issue a high risk. Moderates are rare enough as it is for Day 3.

People in the SE forum have already been highlighting just how significant the threat could be on Sunday. Synoptically obvious outbreak set-up. Low position is about as favorable as you’ll see for a Dixie outbreak. Models converging on higher-end solutions right now. Speed and directional shear are very high-end. CAPE is still in the moderate range (1,000-2,000 j/kg) on models, but that may not be a significant mitigator. It’s more than sufficient for an outbreak. We could be dealing with a major tornado outbreak across LA, MS, and AL on Sunday.

One thing that jumps out to me in the model runs right now is that instability, though sufficient for an outbreak of tornadoes, isn’t off the charts. That’s one distinct difference from the 4-27 comparison that was tossed out there. The speed and directional shear, however, is highly concerning. Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple of model runs.

Can’t post the radar image, but looks like we might be in business in Illinois now.

“Everything” was doing more work than I intended here. I’ll edit the post because I agree with this.

Murphy’s law has applied to these past couple of big on-paper set-ups. Things begin to look like they’re a go until we get to the day of. Not saying this set-up can’t still be potent today, but it looks a lot less certain that we’ll be seeing an significant outbreak than it did 24 hours ago.

From earlier this morning.

Velocity couplet is included in the image that’s embedded in the tweet.

We JUST missed a disaster in Abilene last night. This is about as textbook of a violent tornado presentation on radar as you’re ever going to see.

Uh oh...

This cell is bonkers. It’s had at least two well-defined couplets for several scans. Now, there might be three!

There hasn’t been a substantial CC drop yet, but there’s definitely a major tornado in progress.

Wanted to get a thread started on this. SPC has a 30% area outlined already in the day 4 forecast on Wednesday (February 12). A squall line looks likely based off the latest model runs, but the SPC also mentions the potential for supercells posing all severe hazards.

Wanted to get a thread going on here for the severe threat today across the region. A large enhanced risk is up for basically the entire region for damaging winds. Could be a moderately active day for tornadoes too given the environment in place across the warm sector with some discrete cells expected.

Wanted to start a thread on this. Looks like we are entering an active week for severe weather next week, the week of February 3. SPC has 15% outlook areas for Days 5 (Tuesday), 6 (Wednesday), and 7 (Thursday) starting along the Arklatex on Tuesday, then moving into the Gulf states on Wednesday and Thursday. Could be an active week!

Should we move any discussion of today’s threat over to the SE forum? I just checked and saw no one has started a thread yet. SPC has 10% hatched probabilities across Alabama, and the models are popping some incredible STP values later this afternoon.

I’m a little surprised they dropped the significant tornado delineation in the update. Significant tornadoes are still a distinct possibility, both within in the line, and with any sustained semi-discrete convection (see cell near Clarksville, AR).

To be fair, the DFW area was never under more than a 10% risk for tornadoes, and much of the risk today was expected to be embedded tornadoes. Plus, the 15% area is bit further east and that area wasn’t expected to see peak activity until later tonight.

In terms of a significant tornado threat, I think the WAA storms well out ahead of the main complex in Texas are the ones to watch. None are rooted near the surface yet, but they’ll be a problem once the better upper level support arrives.

That’s a big one. Only ones I can think of this bit are typically outlook upgrade MDs.

It’s safe to say the soundings in the latest model runs are quite ominous. Have to wonder if the SPC upgrades tornado probabilities in Texas in the next update.

An evolution like this can still produce a significant outbreak of tornadoes (see 4-16-11 as a textbook example of a linear mode evolving into a line of semi-discrete cells). Not saying that’s what’s going to happen here, of course, but it’s something to keep in mind.

On this point: The storm mode is definitely an issue, but given the strength of the low level jet, this could still be a prolific tornado producer. We’re looking at 850 mb winds between 60-80 knots Friday and Saturday (latter values have popped up for Saturday across Alabama). Several embedded tornadoes, including significant tornadoes, are a distinct possibility. Some of the CAPE and STP values showing up in Texas on Friday are crazy for early January too. I think the CAPE record for this time of the year in the Dallas area was set around Christmas of 2016 in a similarly anomalous winter set-up.

Probably stating the obvious here, but the ceiling of Friday and Saturday is going to hinge on storm mode. Both days have the potential for discrete convection ahead of an intense QLCS. Any discrete cells on either day would be capable of producing significant tornadoes. Either way, we’re looking at a pretty significant two day period for severe weather.