DanLarsen34

If that environment happens...

That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes.

Looks like an intense tornado too given the velocity couplet. Also appears to be a debris signature on CC.

Tony Lyza is quite bullish on today.

This is spot on. The ceiling is incredibly high today, but we don’t know how things are going to break yet, and likely won’t for a few more hours.

This speaks to the potential today has. We’re talking about a MAJOR outbreak if things break right.

It’s a tough spot for them to be in too. The ceiling on today is incredibly high.

No hint from the SPC that we’ll see an upgrade at any point. Just too much uncertainty at the moment.

That paints a volatile scenario for tomorrow. Loop towards the middle showed several discrete/semi-discrete cells breaking out across Mississippi.

I think you’re right. Let’s just hope we don’t have to deal with this affecting people’s lives either way.

Uh oh.. (just one model run, but still).

Top two analogs worth noting here.

What if I told you there were insane parameters in place, but no discrete supercells came? Would be something if things actually play out this way.

The story of the last couple of potential high-end days. lol. We’ll see which “side” wins out.

Some good advice here from Tony Lyza.

On this note: the outflow boundaries laid out by morning convection on 4-27 actually ENHANCED the tornado risk across NE MS, and NW AL. Subtle thing like this won’t be evident until hours before storm initiation is set to occur. Those small details are what can make the difference between a significant outbreak and something “historic.” 4-3 and 4-27 have set the bar EXTREMELY high for any subsequent outbreak to exceed. Even something a magnitude below that (let’s say 60-90 tornadoes, 5-8 violent tornadoes) would be devastating. This certainly has a very high ceiling, but everything has to break right for a 4-27 or 4-3 to occur. We won’t know that until the day one of those events is about to occur again, even if the larger scale suggests it’s possible.

That’s the largest day 3 moderate risk I’ve ever seen.