DanLarsen34

I think you’re right. Let’s just hope we don’t have to deal with this affecting people’s lives either way.

Uh oh.. (just one model run, but still).

Top two analogs worth noting here.

What if I told you there were insane parameters in place, but no discrete supercells came? Would be something if things actually play out this way.

The story of the last couple of potential high-end days. lol. We’ll see which “side” wins out.

Some good advice here from Tony Lyza.

On this note: the outflow boundaries laid out by morning convection on 4-27 actually ENHANCED the tornado risk across NE MS, and NW AL. Subtle thing like this won’t be evident until hours before storm initiation is set to occur. Those small details are what can make the difference between a significant outbreak and something “historic.” 4-3 and 4-27 have set the bar EXTREMELY high for any subsequent outbreak to exceed. Even something a magnitude below that (let’s say 60-90 tornadoes, 5-8 violent tornadoes) would be devastating. This certainly has a very high ceiling, but everything has to break right for a 4-27 or 4-3 to occur. We won’t know that until the day one of those events is about to occur again, even if the larger scale suggests it’s possible.

That’s the largest day 3 moderate risk I’ve ever seen.

Exactly. The language in the outlook can adequately convey the level of the potential threat that far out without having to issue a high risk. Moderates are rare enough as it is for Day 3.

One thing that jumps out to me in the model runs right now is that instability, though sufficient for an outbreak of tornadoes, isn’t off the charts. That’s one distinct difference from the 4-27 comparison that was tossed out there. The speed and directional shear, however, is highly concerning. Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple of model runs.

I’m a little surprised this forum has been quiet. The long-range models are suggesting we could be looking at the most active stretch of severe weather we’ve had since 2011. Right now, the models are depicting several days of favorable flow across the plains from May 19-26 with ample moisture and instability. Obviously, there’s still a ways to go, but I’ve seen some of the most reserved meteorologists I know starting to highlight this period as potentially being a May 2003 or May 2008 sequence if everything comes together.