DanLarsen34

This is a really strongly worded outlook for Day 3. Models really shifted in the past 24 hours towards a more dangerous set-up.

Classic hook and developing debris ball. This is big trouble.

Hate to nitpick here, but the discussion language mentions “an isolated strong tornado is possible” while the primary threat section says “a couple of intense tornadoes likely.” There shouldn’t be a discrepancy.

From an SPC meteorologist.

The sheer number of violent tornadoes is what sets those two apart from any other outbreak. This raises an interesting question: how many total tornadoes, and violent tornadoes, do you need for an outbreak to be considered a super outbreak? This would be a fun discussion topic. I’ve seen some discussion that 10+ violent tornadoes could qualify.

Absolutely! It’s likely the 1974 super outbreak had more tornadoes than what the official number stands at for the reasons you just gave.

It was. I think that context would heavily lean in favor of 11-17 if you were to go and rank each individually.

"It's April 12, all over again." lol

This outbreak has officially made it to the top the second-tier for me if you were to try and rank its place all-time. In terms of the sheer number of tornadoes, and the significant number of intense tornadoes, this outbreak is up there with any of the major ones we've had in the past 20-30 years, maybe longer. Numerically, it's even ahead of 11-17-2013 and 4-14-2012 which were the two biggest outbreaks I've followed since I really got into following these set-ups every year The only thing this outbreak is missing for it to be considered a Super Outbreak is a high number of violent tornadoes. That's the one thing that still sets apart days like the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak, the 1974 Super Outbreak, and April 27, 2011. Still, this was an historic outbreak.

Can someone post the practically perfect tornado probability map now that we have an updated tornado report map?

131 tornadoes. Insane!

Notice less VBV in this compared to one of the other posts. Crazy that we might be looking at another high-end event if things come together.

Between the total number of tornadoes, and the total number of strong tornadoes, this was one of the most impressive outbreaks we’ve had in the past 20-30 years.

Does anyone know where this outbreak currently ranks all-time for tornadoes? Clearing 100 for a 24 hour period puts it in pretty rare company from what I recall.

138 reports. That’s crazy!

That’s insane!

This tornado was rated at the upper bound of EF-4 (200 MPH). It’s debated whether it should have gotten rated as an EF-5. It was definitely capable of producing that level of damage.

We’re up to 105 tornado reports for April 12, and 77 confirmed tornadoes for 4-12 to 4-13.

We're going to have insane tornado numbers out of this outbreak. https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/1250192210039123969?s=20

Seems to be a growing consensus in the models that we are about to embark on another active period in the weeks ahead. I've seen the same talk, and the CFS is lighting up for sure.