DanLarsen34

It's worth stressing that the worst threat today may still be to come.

New Day 1 outlook out. Only slight changes made to the high risk area, but SPC mentions violent, long-track tornadoes.

SPC just issued a MD mentioning that the threat for strong-violent tornadoes should be increasing in the next 1-3 hours back in W MS, SE AR, and NE LA.

CC drop now visible on the storm nearing Tuscaloosa.

The Selma cell that's tracking over rural areas looks like it's been producing a potential debris ball over the past couple of scans.

Things REALLY ramping up. Moundville storm looks extremely dangerous. Same with the storm nearing West Jefferson.

Storm to the SE of Laurel has a very strong couplet. It's taking a very similar path to the significant tornado we saw in that area earlier.

Storm near Brookhaven is looking extremely dangerous.

Storms off to the south and west of the current warned storms in E MS are starting to get that look.

We've got another PDS watch coming shortly for Eastern AR, Eastern LA, and Western MS.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t this the case with the model ahead of the 4/12 outbreak last year? It showed widespread OWS convection doing this too.

New outlook from the SPC overnight raised probabilities to 30% in the Day 4 outlook on Wednesday across most of Mississippi and Alabama. Their confidence is quite high at this range regarding the potential for a major severe weather event: “ On Wednesday, convection will likely be ongoing across the eastern Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana areas, with some severe risk possible during the morning hours. By afternoon, an increase in coverage and intensity is expected as closed upper system shifts out of the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. With a rather large/destabilizing warm sector and ample shear across a broad region, a rather large 15% area will be maintained, representative of an all-hazards severe risk. Corridors of greater risk -- including possibly more concentrated tornado potential -- may evolve during the afternoon, possibly near the northward-moving warm front. While the ECMWF is farther south with this west-to-east front (central MS/AL) during the afternoon than the GFS (southern TN), will nonetheless introduce a 30% risk area -- encompassing a range of possible warm-frontal locations -- given likelihood for widespread severe weather that warrants greater probability at this time. ”

Radar showing two strong to potentially violent tornadoes happening simultaneously to the SE of Timbercreek Canyon.

Think we’re about to see the storm to the south of the main show go nuts.

Hi all, Thought that I would get a thread going for this coming Wednesday. Models are starting to show a potentially volatile scenario across Mississippi and Alabama. The SPC just issued a broad 15% risk area in their day 5 outlook and mentioned that greater probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. James Spann is also bringing attention to this set-up, mentioning that a significant severe weather event with violent tornadoes is possible in his latest write-up about Wednesday. https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=224731

So, this looks interesting for this weekend.

Seems to be a growing consensus in the models that we are about to embark on another active period in the weeks ahead. I've seen the same talk, and the CFS is lighting up for sure.

I’m a little surprised this forum has been quiet. The long-range models are suggesting we could be looking at the most active stretch of severe weather we’ve had since 2011. Right now, the models are depicting several days of favorable flow across the plains from May 19-26 with ample moisture and instability. Obviously, there’s still a ways to go, but I’ve seen some of the most reserved meteorologists I know starting to highlight this period as potentially being a May 2003 or May 2008 sequence if everything comes together.