George BM
-
Posts
2,898 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by George BM
-
-
What is the difference between a 30-min IPA, a 60-min IPA, a 90-min IPA and a 120-min IPA?
Do they each have their own effects/taste?
-
6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:
56. No rain. High clouds. A normal Christmas Day around DC.
It might be just a tad bit cool for Christmas, actually. But we'll see. We may still warm up a few degrees.
56F at IAD right now as well.
-
2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:
My recipe of the day is Jambalaya. Cooking it up nice and spicy. What's everyone else munching on?
Peanut Butter/Chocolate Protein Bars.
-
48 minutes ago, high risk said:
Indeed! check out the 12z NAM nest for Sunday afternoon.
That's what pulled my arm enough for me to make the post about Sundays potential.
-
1
-
-
For the past several days I've been low-key watching the Sunday system for any severe potential and as of right now late Sunday has slight potential to get interesting should we have enough CAPE (which currently looks modest to perhaps locally moderate with LI of -3 to -5). Deep layer flow looks fairly strong (on the order of 50+ kts in the mid-levels). Should we be able to get enough sunshine for more moderate CAPE it could get interesting for some. Timing does look to be leaning a bit on the later side ATM.
Then there is also still the question of how far north this 'threat' will extend.
#Notanexpertopinion
#Justmy2cents
-
1
-
-
Social Beering ftw.
-
1
-
-
Uphill we go slowly but surely.
A spongy start.
-
On 2/21/2020 at 4:08 PM, Kmlwx said:
Destined to flip at some point. Likely just in time for spring. April is bound to be rainy and raw.
Not too shabby.
-
4 minutes ago, bluehens said:
Windiest day of the winter/spring here in northern DE.
Just now, C.A.P.E. said:I cant remember wind like this since the last legit tropical remnants came through. Irene maybe?
It's the wind that you were denied on April 13th.
60/57 at IAD with a SE wind of 5kts. Light Rain.
-
12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Wind has gotten insane here.
Big oak tree just went down on the lot next door. It wasn't healthy but still.
Lots of small branches and debris coming down everywhere.
Guesstimation of the strength of the wind gusts?
-
2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:
Tonight’s dinner. Homemade pizza.
Eggs, Green Leaves, Mushrooms, Meatballs (Pieces?), Cheese.
How far off was I?
-
I just noticed that ECMWF soundings are now behind a paywall on PivotalWx.
Wow, what a game changer!
Currently the temperature is 50 degrees with light rain/drizzle at IAD.
-
6 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:
Man anyone on 95 down around Brunswick GA should just pull off. About to get slammed by a tornado warned storm that has a history of a large long track tornado on it.
Yeah that supercell looks nasty. The dbz reflectivity with it was into the upper 70s last hour!
-
While just about all ensembles have this trough staying over the eastern US for the remainder of the month into the beginning May I wonder if we can get into some W/NW flow action sometime early in May (2nd week?) as the trough slowly lifts and/or shifts eastward (as shown in a number of long range ens. ATM). Just speculation at this point of course... and me thinking out loud.
-
1 minute ago, wxtrix said:
there’s a little rain to my west, but the heavy band is about 10 miles directly north of me.
A pretty decent gust-front just went through Charles Town looking at the radar.
What would you guesstimate the strength of the gusts to be?
-
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1140 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ052>057-212345- /O.EXA.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.200422T0600Z-200422T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren 1140 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures near 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central, northern and southern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$
-
1
-
-
The DC metro is now within the SLGT risk.
0% Tornado/ 15% Wind/ 0% Hail
-
Don't completely sleep on this Tuesday either. There could be some low-topped convection with limited CAPE along and just ahead of the cold front. Steep low-level lapse rates and fairly fast-flow aloft could translate to some of the convection having strong wind gusts.
-
1
-
-
Down to at least 30F at IAD this morning. Patchy frost.
-
This shows that we at least have a non-zero severe chance through the end of April.
-
37 minutes ago, mappy said:
lol all this time i thought you were a guy.
36 minutes ago, supernovasky said:That's a funnier statement than you might realize.
Wait a minute?... What?!
-
4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:
Couple of thoughts about this past event. These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree.
1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10. We usually bust on the low side of things. No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up.
2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event. It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch. The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event.
3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics. The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking.
4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night. The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.
Even the April 6, 2017 had fairly widespread strong winds and seven EF-0 tornadoes in northern VA... this with less than 250J/kg MUCAPE.
That June 13, 2013 event could have been a memorable event area-wide if the morning MCS didn't hamper things. It was also the last time we had a moderate risk in the immediate region though it was downgraded to a SLGT at 1630z due to said morning MCS leaving us with AOB 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE.
This is my opinion (not an expert): When dealing with a W/NW flow event with a fairly strong low-pressure system within the flow there will very often be a morning/early day MCS. This is because the previous days storms that develop in the Midwest often grow upscale during the evening and are able to survive the whole night due to the better dynamics and CAPE. With the forward speed that these MCSs usually have they very often reach us during the morning hours. An ideal thing with these regimes would be either the timing being a few hours faster so that we can get more midday/solar noon sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere more quickly for any later day activity (easier option) or a heat-dome already being in place so that any morning event would stay to the north while the low-pressure system approaches from the W/NW spawning another MCS (or just decent storms in general) during the afternoon to cruise through the region during the afternoon/evening (harder to pull off option).
-
1
-
-
23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
Here is a great video n how to read a TAF:
22 minutes ago, mappy said:this might help
Thank you both for the replies.
-
1
-
-
9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
How often do you see a TAF like this:
Sorry for the novice question but how do I read this? Is this showing the expected surface wind speed and direction at various times?
May Discobs 2020
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Also Pivotal Weather. Though recently skew-t soundings went behind a paywall. But there is a lot more free Euro data on Pivotal than any other free ECMWF site that I personally know of.