WesternFringe

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

This is an easy one... if it weren't for the -4 AO already, strat babble would be the talk of the town. Then when that fails, the MJO will be the new OG. However, in between all those emotional keystrokes, a couple of mid range jacked up and untracked events drop some snow anyway. But since it was 10'-12' short of expectations, it went unnoticed while hostile stats and climate posts keep the "hot tag" smokin' in the disco thread

Also this.

eta:  I had to take a break from this thread bc of all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks (always a good way to win an argument (eye roll)) like calling me childish.  

I had to laugh eventually.

Imagine the vitriol if I had said we will never snow here like we have snowed before!  Or if I said the data show we will never be snowy again!  I wonder whether some folks here would have just nodded along and said you are right.

i got attacked for saying the data don’t show a huge downturn and implying that we might get normal to above snowfall soon. And that it is location dependent and not an observable trend statistically. Lol 

i looked at the data set of annual snowfall with clear eyes.  I took Stats 1,2,3, and 4 at UVa when studying for my doctorate.  But suddenly I am trolling and childish when I say the data for DC statistically don’t show a cataclysmic drop in annual snowfall? 

Someone needs a reality and self over confidence/assurance check, but I don’t think it is me, since my self confidence was in the gutter following the hostile attacks last night.  

I stand by my data analysis, and don’t think the sky is falling and it is not is it ‘harder to snow around here’ anymore.  We are just in a bad stretch for some in some parts of the mid atlantic.

7 hours ago, jayyy said:

Jeez, this thread went down the shitter. Let’s move the back and forth about average snowfall and global warming elsewhere please. There is a banter and panic room thread. Please use it if you’re going to going into defcon mode 7 days into winter.

There is zero evidence that the days of seeing solid winters in the MA is over. The mid Atlantic to northeast had a pretty epic run from the mid 90s into the early 2000s and again from 2010-2015, minus a handful of truly crummy winters. To all of a sudden say the “long term trends are alarming” isn’t a sincere analysis based on fact. It’s mainly based on feelings about a lackluster past 6ish years. And even that depends on location.

Northern MD has actually fared pretty well during some of those winters. Does it suck that DC didn’t get in on the fun? Of course it does. But that’s the nature of living in a marginal climate where your average snowfall for any given season is roughly 20”. Sometimes you’re going to have an extended period of bad luck / outcomes when a degree or two and 50 miles makes all of the difference. Meanwhile, Buffalo is at 100” for the winter and it’s December 27th. The weather is unpredictable like that.

Where I’m from in the lower Hudson valley had an awesome stretch of above average seasons (snowfall) from 2000-2015, minus a few duds, with a good number of the past century’s top KUs occurring in that timeframe. We can’t honestly look at the past 20 or so winters and say “welp, guess we’re screwed forever”. That’s nonsense.

Can’t wait to flip back to +ENSO state and to get our mod. Niño so this crapola about it never snowing again can finally stop.

This.

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

Folks have tried to show you this is just objectively false in a variety of ways.

Well, folks are wrong then.  I ran the numbers and the slope of the line is virtually zero.  Yes, DC is getting .03” less per year on average over the 140 year period.  That is statistical noise.   DC is getting 0.17” more per year since 1960s.  That is also statistical noise.

The single digit snowfall years ‘trend’ is arbitrary, too.  Some years with 2 recordable events might yield 9.8” for the season and some years a 10.2” total could have come from 6 recordable storms.  We would need to look at snowfall per event by year to make any valid conclusions on snowstorms trending bigger or not.

i am not trolling.  I simply am saying the numbers in DC at least do not point to a cataclysmic drop in snowfall over the last century and a half.  They just don’t.

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

16 winters over a 33/34 year span that resulted in single digit amounts is outright atrocious coicidence or not. That can't just be getting unlucky. I understand it's a small sample size but it's the most recent 33 year period in the discussion. Very alarming. I knew DCA has been bad recently but when you see it on the chart it becomes shocking. Very alarming. One can hope hope it's a cyclical type deal but common sense says otherwise. 

140 years of data says otherwise.  But emotion away

14 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Lol, exactly. Now this is supposed to be about cities all around the country? And the obsessive troll responses to the same post…

No, it is about how the median better represents 140 year data sets and how 10” is a magic cutoff for judging yearly snowfall in DC, as are certain decades better comparison decades than others.   When in reality, annual snowfall remains much the same across 140 years.  And yes, across cities as well.

So, mock away.  But facts are facts.  And average annual snowfall is relatively unchanged in DCA in 140 years.  And is relatively unchanged statistically in most east coast cities now that I am looking into it.

And how many want to explain our poor run of snowfall luck and the unchanging average on more bigger storms and less smaller storms as a result of global warming.  Even though global warming predicts the opposite (less big storms).  

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Here's a really boring stat comparing the 1980s to 2010s.

• Total snowfall of every day in the 1980s:  183.0"
• Total snowfall of every day in the 2010s:  155.7"

Okay, now do the 40s compared to the 2000s

we can do this all day

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Here's a really boring stat comparing the 1980s to 2010s.

• Total snowfall of every day in the 1980s:  183.0"
• Total snowfall of every day in the 2010s:  155.7"

Cherry picking.  IPCC predicts less

big storms as we warm, not

more.

 Kinda destroys the whole “more big storms is the reason for the unchanging mean” narrative.

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

That's a bit of a disingenuous statement because we simply don't have full DC-area data for the entire 1880s.  What I can say is that using the daily data, the average for the five-year period from 1885-1889 was 18.3".  That is higher than any 5-year period in present day going back until 1988.  The latest 5-year average is 8.4".

 

Talk about cherry picking, lol.  Across many cities, we recently had our 4th best of the last 11 decades for snowfall, if we want to look by decade (which I don’t think is very smart).

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem has nothing to with the number of years/sample size.  The issue is you aren't looking at what I am talking about.  I am talking about how DC is getting more single digit snowfall seasons than before and you are looking at a mean which can be skewed by a minority of seasons to hide that phenomenon.  We are two ships passing in the night.  Neither of us is refuting the other...we are simply focusing on two completely different phenomenons. 

I guess.  I think perspective is king and the proper perspective is the whole data set, not our limited lifetimes.

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Where have you been the last three pages? 

I have been here, with no one showing me statistical analysis of DCA getting less snowfall on average other than noise since 1888.  I can show you the equation of the line of best fit.  Where have you been?

ETA:  teach me all you know about linear regression, SnowenOutThere.  I will wait while you Google.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re all over the place.

1) Earlier you said “10 years isn’t a big enough sample” and now you’re basing this analysis on 10 years. 
 

2) 1980s avg DC snow 17.1” Median 17.8 with 3 single digit seasons

Most recent 10 years avg DV snow 12.3” median 10.5 with 5 single digit seasons.

By what metric were you saying the 80s were worse???

 

3) If what you mean is you’re comparing 1980s to 2010s then you are still dealing with the 10 year sample size issue, but then my point why I don’t care about the mean cones up.  Yes the 1980s (which you cherry picked because they were a previous snow minimum) mean was slightly lower at 17.1 to 17.2.  But the 2010s were severely skewed by 2010 and 2014.  But the median and single digit snowfalls tell the story.  The median snow in the 2010s was only 13.5” compared to 17.8” in the 1980s.  There were 4 single digit seasons compared to 3 in the 80s.  So even cherry picking the previously worse minimum period and comparing to the 2010s which included 2 extremely anomalous snowy winters…the odds of less snow in any given season were still higher in the 2010s compared to the 1980s which is what I’m talking about.  
 

I don’t care about the rare once in 9 years huge seasons that skew and inflate the mean.  I’m talking about the fact that in any given season the odds of DC getting less snow (or a single digit season to make the concept simple) is going up and that’s a fact no matter how you try to slice up the data.  

 

Since 1984, DCA has averaged 0.17” more snow more per year annually.  I didn’t go by decades. Nor did I change my analysis based on that. That is a lie. I went by year markers until present with all of my analysis.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Seriously?   All you have to do is look at the DC snowfall data.  From 1888 to 2000 a single digit snowfall season was fairly rare, then suddenly they are happening more often than not.  You want me to waste time throwing that into chart just to prove what you can see from a 10 second look at the data? 

Yes, I want you to prove it with numbers, rather than emotion

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem has nothing to with the number of years/sample size.  The issue is you aren't looking at what I am talking about.  I am talking about how DC is getting more single digit snowfall seasons than before and you are looking at a mean which can be skewed by a minority of seasons to hide that phenomenon.  We are two ships passing in the night.  Neither of us is refuting the other...we are simply focusing on two completely different phenomenons. 

Mean of 136 numbers isn’t skewed easily by a few numbers.

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

If you call looking at the slope of annual snowfall data recorded from DCA 1880 to present cherry picking or ‘slicing up the data’ lol

by that slope DCA is getting 3/100 of an inch less per year from 1880 to present. Or 17/100 of an inch more per year since the 1980s to present.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re all over the place.

1) Earlier you said “10 years isn’t a big enough sample” and now you’re basing this analysis on 10 years. 
 

2) 1980s avg DC snow 17.1” Median 17.8 with 3 single digit seasons

Most recent 10 years avg DV snow 12.3” median 10.5 with 5 single digit seasons.

By what metric were you saying the 80s were worse???

 

3) If what you mean is you’re comparing 1980s to 2010s then you are still dealing with the 10 year sample size issue, but then my point why I don’t care about the mean cones up.  Yes the 1980s (which you cherry picked because they were a previous snow minimum) mean was slightly lower at 17.1 to 17.2.  But the 2010s were severely skewed by 2010 and 2014.  But the median and single digit snowfalls tell the story.  The median snow in the 2010s was only 13.5” compared to 17.8” in the 1980s.  There were 4 single digit seasons compared to 3 in the 80s.  So even cherry picking the previously worse minimum period and comparing to the 2010s which included 2 extremely anomalous snowy winters…the odds of less snow in any given season were still higher in the 2010s compared to the 1980s which is what I’m talking about.  
 

I don’t care about the rare once in 9 years huge seasons that skew and inflate the mean.  I’m talking about the fact that in any given season the odds of DC getting less snow (or a single digit season to make the concept simple) is going up and that’s a fact no matter how you try to slice up the data.  

 

If you call looking at the slope of annual snowfall data recorded from DCA 1880 to present cherry picking or ‘slicing up the data’ lol

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This chart might get to what WesternFringe is trying to say.  If you take a centered 9 year running mean, the "worst" periods over that kind of timescale aren't getting worse.  We are still pulling off enough of the 2003s, 2010s, 2014s and 2016s to balance it out.

 

 

 

Yes, other than panic jumping like Ji, or mansplaining/panicking like PSU, I haven’t seen the data showing we have less snow than the 1880s.  Prove me wrong.

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

About that

 

Calendar Year	Single digit snowfall years
1884-1918	4
1919-1953	7
1954-1988	9
1989-2022	16

I was going by decades.  This is weird and confusing 

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm confused.  The 1960s were excellent for snowfall.  Remember that these are calendar years, not winter.

1960	33.0
1961	34.1
1962	28.7
1963	11.6
1964	27.9
1965	16.6
1966	44.3
1967	34.2
1968	8.2
1969	15.9

 

2013	4.4
2014	30.5
2015	18.3
2016	22.2
2017	5.3
2018	7.3
2019	15.9
2020	0.2
2021	5.4
2022	13.2

 

So, less snowfall in 20teens than 1960s.  N = 2

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm confused.  The 1960s were excellent for snowfall.  Remember that these are calendar years, not winter.

1960	33.0
1961	34.1
1962	28.7
1963	11.6
1964	27.9
1965	16.6
1966	44.3
1967	34.2
1968	8.2
1969	15.9

 

2013	4.4
2014	30.5
2015	18.3
2016	22.2
2017	5.3
2018	7.3
2019	15.9
2020	0.2
2021	5.4
2022	13.2

 

My analysis was from 1980s, not 1960s.  I edited. 

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem has nothing to with the number of years/sample size.  The issue is you aren't looking at what I am talking about.  I am talking about how DC is getting more single digit snowfall seasons than before and you are looking at a mean which can be skewed by a minority of seasons to hide that phenomenon.  We are two ships passing in the night.  Neither of us is refuting the other...we are simply focusing on two completely different phenomenons. 

I guess, man.  You can keep talking about how 2 and 3 and 4 don’t represent a data  set that averages 22, but that doesn’t make it true.

The mean, or average, of 135 data points, is generalizable.  And represents the population as a whole.  Generally speaking, 

ETA:  we are getting more snow per year than when compared to the 1980s

etaa: it doesn’t matter whether you like it or agreee, DCA is getting more annual snow now then they were in 1984

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

So low amounts of single digit snowfall  are common.  But the average doesn’t change much. Got it.

So, 7 minimums since the 1920s.

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'll take the challenge.  My choices would make a stats professor cringe, but they crudely get the point across.

Using daily data from DCA (downloaded from the Utah St. site), I calculated calendar year snowfall totals.  I know the monthly and winter totals are available at LWX's site, but the use of daily snowfall lets us look a little more in depth.  We actually have 139 years of data, which divides nicely into 4 quartiles of 35, 35, 35, 34.

Across the board, the stats have fallen off.  

Calendar Year	Average	Median	Years w/4" days	Years with 6" days
1884-1918	22.8	23.4	29	14
1919-1953	16.3	14.9	27	16
1954-1988	18.5	14.7	25	14
1989-2022	13.3	10.5	17	12

And if you take a 5-yr running mean, and apply a basic trendline to that, woof.  The trend is less steep if you remove the pre-airport location data (~1950), but it is still there.  

So low amounts of single digit snowfall  are common.  Got it.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem has nothing to with the number of years/sample size.  The issue is you aren't looking at what I am talking about.  I am talking about how DC is getting more single digit snowfall seasons than before and you are looking at a mean which can be skewed by a minority of seasons to hide that phenomenon.  We are two ships passing in the night.  Neither of us is refuting the other...we are simply focusing on two completely different phenomenons. 

You haven’t shown me data that single digit DCA snowfall is new a phenomenon that didn’t exist before close to 1888.  I am all ears.

Just now, WesternFringe said:

You are kind of proving my point by looking so intensively at the last 30 years as if they represent the data set on whole.  A running 10 to 20 year data set?  It is almost like you want to massage your numbers to show a point.  What is wrong with 136 yrs of  data points unless it doesn’t show what you want it to show? Lol

But tell me annual snowfall is decreasing at DCA since the 1980s and I can call you a liar and back it up with data