WesternFringe

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show  climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect. 

Yeah, we are all missing 30-50” inches vs those ensemble maps verbatim this year

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Very true...and I know you typically aren't a deb, though at times quite snarky this winter.  Which I totally get, given how utterly frustrating it has been.  I don't think anyone with any sense of reason expected a "great" winter this year by any means.  But I really don't think anyone, even the most pessimistic, thought it would be this devoid of anything.  Like essentially wall-to-wall.  The anti 2013-14 so to speak!  We've had one 0.5" snow early morning on February 1 (where I'm at, anyhow) that was gone before noon...well, OK, there was like 15 min. of some flurries at the start of that Arctic blast over Christmas weekend and a bit of snow TV yesterday.  And it's not just the paucity of snow, it's also just how extremely warm it's been (other than most of December being a bit below normal, enhanced by Christmas weekend).  When you have a +7 temperature departure for January and February (just looking at DCA for reference, but pretty much the same most everywhere here), you're really hard pressed to get anything.  Not like we've been cold and dry or anything like that.

So assuming we don't really get anything the rest of this season, offhand, what would you rank this winter in terms of futility or near-shutout?  Say, compared to 2001-02, 2011-12, or 2019-20 for instance?  In terms of warmth and lack of snow?

Futility thread is there for a reason lol

eta:  Not completely giving up on this storm, but I do agree the writing is on the wall most likely.  Let’s see if CAPE’s/Stormchaser Chuck’s/PSU’s mid month period works out.  That combo of people is like the Euro/Icon/GFS all agreeing on a snow threat, so it is probably our best chance to salvage this craphole of a winter!

7 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Well, I saw some flakes. But nothing close to any kind of accumulation. Those maps were awful. Looks like the heaviest preciP was wayyyy south. Next.

We had light rain, then heavy rain, and finally sleet here NW of Staunton.

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surrounded by SLPs- it's happening!!

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I took several days off and I see we’re still relying on day 11 control runs. Yup. 

The big storm is only 10 (or 11) days away!  This winter sucks.  Lol

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

They are pretty much here..80s?

Got to 70 here today

11/15/22.    Wet snow mixed with the rain

11/17/22.    Flurries early

11/18/22.    Flurries early evening 

12/15/22.    1” of sleet/snow and freezing rain

12/22/22.    Trace of sleet and more freezing rain

1/8/23.  Trace of Sleet and freezing rain

1/11/23 Some snow mixed with rain

1/23/23 Flurries intermittent 

1/26/23 afternoon flurries 

1/27/23 morning flurries

2/1/23.  1.5” snow

2/12/23 0.5” sleet and snow mixing in with rain

season total: 3”

1 hour ago, MacChump said:

i’ve got a post all set to bump

Where is the eye roll emoji?

A bunch of sleet here (1/2” accum) this morning and then cold rain.  Never got above 33 today even though the forecast was for 38-41.  Lots of ice so far.  Seeing some big wet snow flakes mix in more often now.  NWS says 1-3” tonight, but I am just hoping everything is coated white and then we stay below freezing overnight!  

33° with freezing rain and snow mixing in. NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

eta: 31° and freezing raining. Ice is starting to build up.  Seeing some snow, but not a lot as of now.

12 minutes ago, MacChump said:

thank you, I didn’t think it was really all that subtle lol

It’s not and we get it.  You are funny. Now can you please just go cheer for your eagles tomorrow and leave us alone in this storm thread that won’t come near you?  Please?

54 minutes ago, MacChump said:

bumping tomorrow too, fyi…just one more time…I have no choice in the matter, there are bigger things at stake

Okay.  Keep us posted.

3 hours ago, MacChump said:

bump

Bump this, MacChump!  Lol

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0Z Euro ups the ante to 2-6” for western VA. Anyone have the 6Z?

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7 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Who gives a fuck? Its rain.

NWS has 1-4” for Augusta County, so some of us do give a fuck. Also, why come to this unpinned storm thread to tell us who gives a fuck and that it is rain? Who does that except a troll? Go be a miserable troll elsewhere, please.

You know it is bad when a current article on accuweather says this:

As the snow drought continues along the I-95 zone of the mid-Atlantic, southern cities such as Knoxville, Tennessee, have already picked up 1.6 inches, which is more than all of the snow that has fallen so far in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City combined. A number of additional southern cities may join that list in the wake of this storm.

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol dude…this isn’t 1982. The models have this one nailed


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Which ones?  They are all over the place for my backyard here out west.  From 6” of snow and sleet and ice on top to sleet only to freezing rain only to a mix to just cold rain.

19 minutes ago, MacChump said:

Look, we know it isn't going to snow this weekend...

Euro, GFS, NAM, whatever...

The model doesn't matter...

Some think one is better than the other

Go look at the HRRRRRRRR they say...

On the ICON there's some blue they say...

But let's be honest...

In reality, they all suck...

Really, really suck...

Doesn't matter what model you look at...

Snow isn't happening this weekend

For you in PA, you are right...

You will get no snow...

But ALL of the models show snow in SW Virginia...

And they will get snow...

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Stark differences in track between EURO and GFS at this range…if we had cold air in place there would be lots of hand wringing until 12Z…WB 6Z GFS compared to Euro.

Oh, there is still hand wringing here out west.  Does my area get 2.5" qpf of snow, sleet, and rain like the 6Z GFS shows?  Or do we get 0.1" of qpf per the 6Z Euro?  Stark differences for these leads.

19 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

A stronger low with a slightly more southerly placement than shown two posts above. Going to be a tight fine line this way for sure.


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Agreed, but usually stronger lows like to climb in latitude as they amplify, so it is tough to get both adjustments unfortunately.  Not saying it can’t happen, though. Fingers crossed.  

You all are in a much better spot than I am for this one. I about 2 or 3 counties north of your forum in Augusta County, VA at 1550 ft. Hoping for a Super Bowl miracle and then a day off from school for my kids and work since my wife and I both teach. And sledding for the first time this season! Lol

But you all have a much better ULL pass going for you which is able to pull down cold air from the heavens above since there is no cold air in the eastern US or SE Canada to pull from due to the persistent SER this winter. I hope you all get obliterated with snow and someone jacks with 2 feet!

The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs.

At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos.

This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass.

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GFS says there's still a chance for the far west/SW fringe.

7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

0Z NAM at 39 already has the ULL southwest of 18Z position by a pretty good bit (eastern OK/western AR vs now southern OK/northern TX. More neutral tilt then positive and the confluence and vort in northern new england looks to be pressing down some. Not entirely sure how that affects things as the run continues but definitely some noticeable differences. 

Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL.  If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then we all win… I know, self weenie 

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

I sat outside this afternoon and soaked up sun. 
 

Cold air is wasted if all it does is torch a day later and it’s no different than spring 

Not true.  If it gives my family a day beautiful day of snow watching football and a day off after the super bowl, nothing was wasted! Lol

11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Just for ha-ha’s, are the SREF’s even available anymore? I always used to like to see which way the NAM was going to go at 0z based on them. 

Yes they are, but the link is on my computer at work.  Will try to remember to send it to you tomorrow morning.

I miss eduggs telling everybody here that their analysis sucked and that this was a real threat for us but our simpleton surface oriented brains couldn’t process it.  Those were good times. Lol

Obviously I hope the south trend reverses in future guidance and we all score a perfect ULL pass, but I agree the chances are slim now.