WesternFringe

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some adjustments are still possible. The wester you are the better the chances for something frozen at the beginning and maybe again at the end, the way it looks to me. Over here, it's pretty much locked in as a mild rain event with following cold.

Yeah, I am still in the game for a white Christmas out here, but anything over 4 or 5 inches seems out of the realm of possibilities at the moment.

10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The cluster of lows near the benchmark on the 6z EPS is encouraging. To steal from the CWG:

Less than 1”…..20%
1-3………………..30%
3-6……………….40%
Und BECS?……10%

This is my first preliminary early call minus a map with some weenieism factored in, subject to change “forecast”.

Without a map or location stated for your forecast, you can just adjust where it was for afterwards and claim victory.

I'll admit I'm looking forward to seeing the clown maps for this one.

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Who has PBP?

Yoda?  Stormtracker?  Bueller?  Bueller?

32 and light sleet here NW of Staunton.  Trees covered in ice and about an inch of sleet on the ground.  Schools are all closed.  Nice ice storm here!

35/30 and intermittent sprinkles here NW of Staunton

34/31 here NW of Staunton

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

Pivotal’s FRAM ice output for the nam

how much ice when it is half orange and half blue?

LWX upped ice accumulation totals about 40 minutes ago

7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

How soon is this storm hitting the I-81 corridor on Wednesday? I know friends who have students coming back to nova  from colleges tomorrow….

 

 

 

 

 

They should be fine traveling tomorrow.  Early Thursday morning is when the freezing rain is modeled to start.

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Good summary by Peter 

 

He is literally raining on my (ice) parade 

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Does WB have the FRAM product? It tends to be a lot more realistic with ZR accretion versus the ZR from QPF alone product. 

Mappy posted the FRAM for the Euro yesterday for me, and I believe it was WB.

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

This happens with 60-70% of the storms the couple days leading up to them.  A cold bias shows more then as things get closer and better sampled it adjusts and warms.  RGEM is known for this.

The RGEM may have a cold bias, but when the Euro, GFS, Nam twins, and CMC all show my area (Augusta County) getting more than 1" of accumulating freezing rain, it gets my attention!

6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here..

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah that's a weenie model.

It bullseyes my county, so no it’s not. Lol

In actuality, I think there is zero chance of 2” of freezing rain verifying here, but would love to see it (minus the requisite power outages and accidents, of course).

Euro doesn't think too much of snow chances, even at my elevation and location in the valley.  Anyone have freezing rain and sleet accumulation from the Euro?

8 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

What time do we think precip starts Wednesday night?


.

NAM says 5 or 6 am for you in Annapolis 

Btw, guidance has me expecting an ice storm down here of epic proportions (Augusta County) based on latest euro and gfs and respective ensemble convergence.

So, knowing what I know about freezing rain verifying here (even with 1550’) and my climo being in this general area for 30 years, I am 99% sure I will be seeing cold rain and will be teaching young adults Thursday and Friday and not having snow/winter weather days!

Hope the northern/eastern crew gets lots of accumulating snow though!  You all are still in the game

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Search Atmospheric Angular Momentum and EAMT. Plenty of technical papers on the topic. Complex large scale physics. Esoteric stuff.  General idea- The atmosphere is a fluid moving relative to the rotating earth. Big mountains (ie in east Asia)represent obstructions/disturbances to the flow, and act like a 'lever arm' in a sense, imparting a force relative to the earth's rotation, and can influence jet stream configuration. 

Makes sense since the planet spins at 1,000 mph at the equator and therefore there must be a force generated by the slower moving fluid layer on top compared to the solid 1000 mph layer underneath it. Mountains are like rocks on a river bed if the rocks were moving faster than the water lol

eta: thanks for explaining it, CAPE

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Statistically there has been a slow decline for the last 100 years. It happens in an uneven way with cycles within the longer trend but it’s there. 

Very, very slow decline.  I did a linear regression for total annual snow in DC and Baltimore since 1880s last year and the slope was barely negative (statistically within the margin of error for zero slope).

Also not sure about there being more big ones and less small events than in the past, although I didn’t do a statistical analysis of that yet.  There were some huge KUs all throughout the last 120 years as well.

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Why does the GFS only get good at 384 hours...

Because that is when it is least likely to verify? lol

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol.

You called?

All snow here NW of Staunton and 32 degrees.  More than an inch accumulation in places.

eta: just dumping snow now- huge flakes

Sleet piling up here NW of Staunton.  Snow mixing in now.  33 degrees

Tropical Tidbits 0Z 3K MAM

NWS saying 1-3” for Augusta County nw of Staunton.