WesternFringe

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I was in central Va hoping for snow I’d be nervous. Very nervous

Not nervous here NW of Staunton.  I think we will see accumulating snow.  Most of the models keep bullseying my county or a neighboring county.

Also, getting 28" last month helps.  Still have snow piles otg despite 50s lately. 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Bullseying me NNW of Staunton so it must be right. 

Snowing very very lightly here northwest of Staunton.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

@stormtracker @WinterWxLuvr this was the visual I was looking at earlier - matters for the Central VA folks, maybe not up there

Yeah, this one seems to be getting away from me over on the other side of Afton Mountain from you as well.  Like PSU said, the second wave is the more interesting one anyways!

55 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I did not see much 6Z EPS support or GEFS support.

This year, the ops are leading the ensembles at 5 days out*

*special 21-22 winter weenie rule

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where are the SREF people?  It's not a real future fail without those being brought out.

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Per the GPS, NW of Staunton I am fringed on snow and sleet and expecting .35" qpf of freezing rain (which verifies as often as I hit the Powerball). 

Can I pass?

eta: I hope northern areas that have been fringed earlier this winter get destroyed with snow, and ice (if you like ice)

19 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

So, in a year where we miss on the coastal, the big ice storm will verify? Seems about right.

 

You are a bundle of joy!

eta: I am digging the GFS.  Back-to-back ice storms, a little snowstorm on the 10th, a little snow on the 13th, and another wave approaching at the end of the run.  Hopefully another model or ensemble latches on to one of these threats and gives us something to legit track!!  Hard to be pessimistic here as I just had 28.5" in January when my climo is 24" for the season

Ended up with 3” of powder here NW of Staunton.

ETA: pictures are right side up now 

28/27 NW of Staunton 

3-4” of fluff out of nowhere

amazing

36/27 Light Snow in Staunton

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok. Going offline for a bit.  Actually have work to do at work. Y’all can get pbp from DDweather, because evidently he doesn’t think i know how to read a f*cking h5 chart. 

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No appreciable changes through 24

You just can't help yourself  

Just playing- I appreciate the pbp!

16 degrees and heavy snow. 8” and counting!  
 

The globals (euro and GFS) kicked the mesos ass so far here 

17 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I have this much snow so far. And my beer choice couldn’t be more perfect. 

16 degrees NW of Staunton.  About 4”.  Picnic table is under a pergola 

Moderate to Heavy snow. 3-4” otg.  NW of Staunton
 

ETA: This was earlier when there was only an inch.  My wife spent hours making sure their stalls were comfortable, but they prefer Jebwalks and hay!

1 hour ago, Ji said:

What happened to the hot and heavy thump. How did this become a light snow event

It has started earlier than forecast here.  The thump is incoming 

16 degrees and steady, light snow.    Beautiful. About 1/2”.  NW of Staunton

Steady light snow here NW of Staunton.  18°

16/6 here in Churchville area (NW of Staunton).

Friend of mine just reported seeing first flakes at Wintergreen about 20 minutes ago.

eta: First flakes here too! I had to go outside to notice because it’s super light. But it’s snow!!

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So a road trip could be Kentuck into Pleasant Gap followed by Tightsqueeze and then Climax. Just stay TF out of Lumpkin Forest with your Kentuck and all is good. 

After that, head on up to Intercourse, PA and do the whole trip over again.

23/12 here NW of Staunton

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

I will take my 14” and run.  If only that were to verify!

Hoping for some late bumps east to the projected track of the low today to make this event better for everyone in the sub.

Still looking like a nice storm out here imby NW of Staunton.  Latest Euro drops 14”.  GFS was 10-12”.  NAMs do give me some pause, and I expect to mix some towards the evening, but even the last 3k I looked at had 5-6” of snow before ice afterwards.

I hope this storm overperforms and everyone in here is pleasantly surprised!  And thanks for all of the analysis and laughs along the way.  This has been a helluva roller coaster thread, and fun to be a very small part of it.

14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It really won't matter if you dryslot or not with those temperatures. Your snow will be gone almost as soon as it ends.

Not where I live

49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

This progression should remind everyone that the models out in the D7+ range are only rough guides of what *may* happen. This thing has become a completely different situation from a day or two ago. Hand wringing over longer range models should be limited to the general H5 pattern at most. Still time to get some adjustments for this one - but not looking great at the moment. It's the business.

 

ETA: I know everyone always likes to say "we all know this" - but a lot of you all still seem to take long range modeling as if it's guaranteeing you snow. We've all gotta start to take the @Bob Chill - approach and just try to care less. It's a bummer when we miss but just take the wins and then the losses will be losses. 

To be fair, no one has missed, won, or lost on this storm yet.  That is good thinking when the outcome has become obvious, but with all the changes in the last 2 days worth of model runs, who is confident they know the final outcome?