WesternFringe

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Do Kuchera totals ever verify?  It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high.

Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby.  I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently.  I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we so quick to dismiss the euro?

Can’t agree more. Let’s look at the entire 0Z suite before deciding to head to the reaper guy over this storm.

11 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Here ya go

 

I thank you for posting it, but without the key or legend it is really difficult to see what it is depicting other than relative amounts.  

Which is probably all that is important in the end given that these model depictions will bust one way or another.

Carry on.

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Such a narrow band of snow.  Sheesh. 

And yet I am still barely out if it an at my elevation of 1550’ NW of Staunton.  

I will take my chances, given my local climo, and also give a bit more weight to the Euro than the NAM for the medium timeframe (until Friday).  I think I see a decent amount of accumulating snow, and that makes this former Yankee very happy.

Big picture is we are all tracking snow.  Lucky us! 

38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

UK is a foot plus for NW of the cities. This total QPF is all snow west of the fall line:

Fringed out in the western area here with qpf, like my namesake!

Nah, who am I kidding?  I would take 3 more chances at frozen by Sunday in a heartbeat.  The GFS has 9 days of the next 16 that show some sort of frozen falling for mby in Augusta County and for most of the subforum.  We take!

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I measured 5.2 on my deck before the lull. Measured another 1.8 after from the second round. But depth never got above 5.8 and now it’s compacted back to like 5 again. So 7 actually fell between the two heavy bands but we never passed 5.8 depth due to compaction during the lull.  Also this is the kind of borderline event where my 300 extra feet might have mattered some. It was 33 during a lot of the storm even up here. 

 Same phenomenon here.  Had 8”+ total but never had quite 8” on the ground except in the shady areas.  I have 3-4” now due to compaction and melting and it is 37.

Snow is done falling.  Had 8” here outside of Churchville NW of Staunton at 1550’.  35° and melting has commenced.  Going down to 17 tonight, so will be interesting to see how much survives.

Good luck to all.  May your yards jackpot repeatedly!

Just now, wxtrix said:

It’s still based on visibility. my heavy snow earlier was tiny flakes.

I understand the concept- I was kidding!  

Hope your visibility stays low and you get nuked with snow.

11 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

PSA:  heavy snow is not determined by flake size, but by visibility.

over 1/2 mile visibility:  snow

1/2 mile visibility:  moderate snow

1/4 mile or less:  heavy snow

What if it is puking parachute fatties, though?

Agree with PSU that it is sad in the sense that it’s heavy snow and I am at 1550’ and I am still only 31°.

Having said that, I am going outside until it stops and going to enjoy the sh@& out of it.

Approaching 5 inches and puking snow.  NW of Staunton (if you all didn’t know by now)

Wishing all the best luck to all you posters and lurkers and weenies like me.  There is something wrong with us to be so obsessed with frozen precipitation, but I love it!

Over 4” here now.  Light snow at the moment. 31° NW of Staunton at 1550’

31/31. Moderate to heavy snow with 2.5” on the ground.

NW of Staunton, 1550’

36 and 22.  Light virga entering the area soon. NW of Staunton at 1550’

Wife and I are going to dinner, but will be reporting until I pass out tonight from the southwest for you all.

Good luck, all!

3 hours ago, wxtrix said:

looks good. i expect a few of the western counties under a WWA to switch to warnings later today.

Under a warning here in Augusta County now

3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Before the last event on our Philly forum Tony (rainshadow) posted the model that’s supposed to be replacing the NAM soon. I forget what it’s called, but it did an amazing job. I think it begins with a C but idk lol. I’ll see if I can get a snow map off its recent run.
 

I found it...

so supposedly this will be the model replacing the NAM. This was its forecast before the last event

So, what is it showing now?  You have a link?

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shortwave is not as sharp and dampens as it comes east. Weak pos this run.

Hopefully the EPS disagrees, although I know we are getting to that time where ops have as much or more weight.

25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If this amps at all it’s coming more nw. There’s nothing to stop it. No suppression mechanism

Won't the high pressure to the west (at least as depicted on the 12Z cmc) have something to say about that?  

eta:  Not being snarky at all.  Just asking the question so I can learn!

11 minutes ago, high risk said:

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

It is worrisome that the model intended to replace the GFS has been scoring lower than the GFS for most of that graph!

Snowing little tiny snowballs with hundreds of protruding geometric faces.  I don’t recall seeing these before.

Unfortunately, pic may be too zoomed out to see what I am talking about.

Cheers, all!

30° and light snow here in Churchville, NW of Staunton.  It has been snowing on and off here for 41 hours (since Sunday at 1:00 am).  

Now, all but 7-8” has been just snow tv, but I love this storm!  Reminds me of growing up in upstate NY and NH and VT.

8 minutes ago, VelociChicken said:

5" total to this point with some decent snow coming down 27.3/27 just south of point of rocks.

Has anybody seen little string or sticklike snowflakes like this before?

Yes, we had them yesterday.  They are called needles.  A quick Google search and there are tons about all the different types of snow.  Did that with my 9 yr old yesterday.

eta: Ninja’d by wxtrix!

Lightly snowing, 27 degrees.  Expecting little accumulation (maybe an inch) today, but snow tv is awesome after yesterday.  

Around 7.5 to 8 inches total so far with a little compaction. 

Not the big, big dog, but this has been an awesome storm!  

Hoping everybody’s yard up north is a jack zone from the coastal.

Here is me and the old lady on our 4 wheeler ride.  NW of Staunton.

28/28 and very light snow.  Almost 7”.

nw of Staunton

28/28.  5-6 inches of snow on the ground and rippin’ fatties here in Augusta County nw of Staunton.

It is also snowing hard! 
 

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol.

The pretty maps.

Fwiw, the Icon already busted low for mby!