WesternFringe

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Great start disaster finish. Opposite of normally how we do it

Not sure how you can predict the finish yet.  I thought I was done with freezing mist, then came the sleet and snow mixed in beat down.  I am WSW of you, so my present could be your future.

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

is that it?

Not if my latitude has any bearing on you all up north.  Heavy sleet and snowflakes mixing in now after a lull of freezing mist rain.  Translation:  I think you will get periods of heavy sleet and snow still.

Heavy sleet in Augusta County now, after a couple of hours of freezing mist.  30.6 degrees.  Wow!

Had 4" here in Augusta County before the sleet beat it down to a little over 3".  Freezing mist now.  30.6 degrees.  Nice little storm!!

10 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Sorry if this happened a while ago, but I was pretty surprised to see that the government is already closed for tomorrow.

Have you looked at the radar at all today?  Or a weather app?  Or this board? lol

Not trying to be disrespectful, but you are coming to a winter storm obs and disc and are bewildered there is a winter storm that got the govt to close. That's just too funny.

4 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

more like a sauna with all the dry air 

In all seriousness, my hygrometer says 13% relative humidity outside now in Augusta County.  Going to need that to rise.

eta:  local weatherbug says 63%.  my hygrometer must be malfunctioning

Augusta County       32/21      Heavy virga according to WHSV radar

Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Hey I haven’t mentioned that word once yet 

I am just playing.  I remember a storm last winter or the year before where that was your post repeatedly about a storm threat.  Annoyingly, you were mostly right that time!  lol

33 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Dry air

Do you know BaltimoreWxGuy by chance?

In my experience here in the Shenandoah Valley, the HRRR does poorly until the moisture has cleared the Alleghenies.  It's almost as if it can't decide how much will make it over, but since it runs every hour it starts to show better results once it samples how much precip actually did make it over. *

*Official Weenie Handbook Rule #3241

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

No one likes to see bad runs but we should be using the Euro 1000 times more than the HRRR.  I know you all know this.  

This.  Euro/Ukie/NAMs/GFS twins/CMC/RGEM/ Herpderps/Icon vs the HRRR.  Who are you picking?

1 hour ago, Hyphnx said:

Food Lion has the Hop Pack for 14.99. 

 

38/20

I just bought that on my way home from work!  Devil's Backbone, right?

35/22 and snow is only 3 or 4 counties away, knocking on the doorstep!!

37/ 22  Near Staunton in Augusta County

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we even in nam range yet?

I know you are joking, but in reality I am 24 or 25 hours out for onset of precip imby.  I am giving some of the better mesos equal weight to the globals at this point.  Most of all, I am just excited for snow!!  Probably won't beat my 7" on 12/9, but may have 5-6" and copious amounts of sleet on top.  Good enough for me! 

As a bonus, my wife and I both teach, so a day off with my young kids sledding is pretty awesome, and reminds me of growing up in Upstate NY.  It looks like a good storm for 90% of the forum to me, which is rare lately! 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Man some really bad model analysis/extrapolation going on here

Enlighten us, then.  It seems pretty reasonable to be looking at the mesos and talking about 700, 850, and 950 temps and timing to me.  The whole end result is dependent on these temps and timing, given qpf doesn't appear to be a problem.

Does Weather Channel use a proprietary model?  They are saying 3-5" Tuesday overnight and then 5-8" more on Wednesday for here in Augusta County.  While I would like to believe that 8-13" total, models say we flip to sleet before that much snow falls.

5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat.  The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern.  Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. 

 

Pivotal maps do a good job teasing out how much would be snow vs sleet/freezing rain.  Still a nice storm verbatim.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was 100% goofing around because some were having an emotional stress reaction to every run!  

That said the pattern is not heading the right way. It could flip around yes. But hard to feel great about the trends right now. 

I don't feel great about trends right now either.  But that's when mother nature (chaos theory) throws a curve ball and we get one more nice threat or two that she and the patterns don't account for.  Half full kind of guy, I guess.

eta: 17.5" this year/ 23.5" climo

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They obviously don’t want that. 

I love your objective analysis, it is one of the reasons this board is awesome.  My point remains why should we be encouraged by the the 10+ day good looking patterns while immediately discouraged by the same 10+ day bad looking patterns?   Neither has proven to be true with regard to ground truth snow this winter.

No one said to give up, but you were both agreeing that maybe coming back in 2 weeks was a smart idea.  My only point is that some threats this year have first materialized inside that 2 week window and have produced while many more have been modeled more than 2 weeks out that don't produce.

22 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

So we’re supposed to discuss the LR in this thread? 

I was responding to PSU who was responding to C.A.PE. about the long range, so ask them thread police

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see it too

So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days?  All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year.  I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby.   I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time.  Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC. 

It doesn't happen every time.  Bumps north are common, but not inevitable.  Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north.  It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled.  Otherwise, I would never get snow imby!

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Of course!  It’s playing catch up to the King. We should always keep that in mind when the Euro is steadily leading the way. Then again, I’ll forget I even posted this worthless response by the time18z rolls in. LOLz. 

Not sure the Euro is steadily leading the way.  It had a 150 mile jump north from 12Z to 18Z yesterday.  Perhaps it is steadying itself now since the 0Z was in between its previous 2 runs, but it wasn't so steady yesterday at least.

Radar says sleet but now 33 and rain, but was fun while it lasted!  In maybe an hour and a half it went from snow to snow/sleet to sleet to cold rain.