WesternFringe

Down to 34° with rain and some snow mixing in. Crazy!

37° and half rain half snow northwest of Staunton in Augusta County

Down to 41° and moderate rain intensifyIng

Dropped from 61° around 6 o’clock to 45° now! It has been windy, but not crazy.

NW of Staunton in Augusta County

Sitting at 20.6" here for the season, which is below my climo by about 5".  I would give this winter a B for mby.  The pouring sleet at 18 degrees, the resulting 3 week glacier, and then not going above freezing for a week and a half bumped it up to a B from a C in my opinion.

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Okay, I'll admit I was wrong. It can snow in Baltimore, DC, and Virginia, even after it's 80 degrees. I've never seen that before, but I guess there's a first for everything.

(Although, the rain hasn't changed over where I am.)

Karma is a bi$@#! 

Last pics as it has moved on.  I went on a snike (snow hike) just a few miles from my workplace.  Beautiful!!

I knew it was going to snow today, but the accumulation is surprising.  35 degrees here in Augusta County NW of Staunton.

Down to 36 and pouring fatties with a little sleet mixing in!  No rain at all in the last hour.

38 degrees and ripping fatties in Augusta County!  Starting to accumulate in the woods and pavement by the tennis courts and the top of cars.

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Sometimes, you have to use common sense and not rely on the models. How many times have you seen snow immediately following 80 degree days? I can't think of any.

If I happen to be wrong, I will personally come back here and apologize to you all. However, I know it's not going to happen, so I'm done posting on this thread because it's really unnecessary. Good night to everyone. 

Snowing here in Augusta County 2 hours earlier than modeled NW of Staunton.  39 degrees.

About 1.5” here on grass and elevated surfaces.  Some melting and compaction now. 33° and light rain currently.

Light snow with good sized flakes and 35 degrees here in Swoope, NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

6z GFS

2 hours ago, Hoosweather said:

Not letting me add multiple photos but this is a pic from beside our place at around 2pm. This is before the heaviest snow which fell from then till about 6. Now it also was windy but that’s roughly 8-10 on the seats already. Long and short- as crazy as it sounds (and in the valley 3000 feet below they got a dusting!)- this actually happened at Wintergreen. I don’t know if it was a perfect spot for upslope or what- but it was easily over a foot. Incredible to witness!

My friends who live up there said SOME of the mountain cams showed up to 12" of snow, but that likely was snow drifts from the heavy winds.  Looks like about 6" to me on that picnic table...

12z GFS and CMC.  6z Dr. No is still pretty much a no.

8 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

Not really sure why anyone wants this garbage snow with near 70 degree temperatures on the way…..mind blowing lol

To each his own, but why stop in this storm thread just to say that?  Why not leave us the hell alone if you aren't interested rather than pissing in our corn flakes? ...mind blowing lol

A day off from work with my family and this forecast seems like a good way to wrap up winter to me!

6 hours ago, stormy said:

I'm very sorry, but 4500 ft.  mts. in northern and western Augusta County do not exist.................

You goofed on that.

Okay bro, whatever you need to tell yourself.  Elliots Knob is 4463’, not 4500’. I was a whole 37’ off.  It is almost like I rounded for simplicity sake. 

Also, I was a hell of a lot closer than you were when you called Wintergreen 3000’ when it is actually 3515’.  That is 515’ off!!!

You goofed way bigger than me on that!  

And I was dumb enough to believe you and regurgitated that in one of my replies.  Lol

Finally, the unofficial non NWS report was from 7:11, not 8:00 am as you said.  As long as we are getting nit picky.  You goofed on that, too. Lol

39 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

AI Euro and AI GFS are more GFS like than CMC/Euro like.

They got the memo that the GFS is the new King 

1 hour ago, stormy said:

AS I said earlier today, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the report because I did not make the measurement . You and I both want accurate measurement and reporting. I am with you 100% on that.

We seem to have a mentally challenged  intruder. Psu ,who is  obsessed with global warming and a huge decrease of D.C. snowfall.    Psu , I am very sorry to disappoint you, but I totally agree that earlier reported snowfall totals cannot be trusted. 

YOU are calling psu mentally challenged? Jfc, why did I ever unmute you?  
 

My fault, everyone. 

4 hours ago, stormy said:

Sunday plastered the Shenandoah Valley with a very unusual snow-event. Wide variations in accumulated snowfall occurred within short distances. Similar conditions occurred in W.Va and Md./ Del. 

The NAM Nest 700 mb. chart illustrated a sharp trough with extreme lift turbulence over Augusta County Sunday afternoon.    I received a strong inch in a heavy band while a friend a few miles away had bare ground. Luray reported a half inch while a friend a few miles away up on Tanners Ridge at 2700 ft. near Big Meadows reported at least 6 inches with high winds. When I was preparing my Newsletter early Monday I looked at local snow totals. Stuarts Draft has 3 reporting stations on the west side within a couple miles apart. One station reported 0, another reported 1 inch while #3 reported 4.5 inches!  I reported 2 inches for Stuarts Draft.  In question, Wintergreen reported 3 inches at 7:30 am Sunday,  6 inches at 3 pm Sunday and 15 inches at 7:30 am Monday.  Is this 100% accurate??  I don't know because I didn't take the measurements.  If we deny snowfall  reported by the NWS because we disagree , we are hopeless. I am currently working on the last 125 years of snowfall for the Valley. I am relying on Staunton Records, Dale Enterprise Records and 60 years of personal records with occasional cross-references.   Many of the people who made those records have been dead for more than 50 years. How did they measure snow?  Did they use snowboards? If so, how often did they clean the snowboards?

West Virginia also had as you say, 'ridiculous" reports for Sunday.  Holly River State Park reported 22.5 inches with a picture of measurement on social media.  10 - 15 miles away, Webster Springs only reported 6 inches.

Md/Del. also had "ridiculous" reports with 4 - 20 inches within 10-15 miles of each other at midday Monday.

I'm always interested in snowfall reports but I am keenly aware that we don't live in a perfect world regarding measuring/reporting snowfall or any other factors in our lives. 

Data from satellites and NOAA doesn't support it at all.  Most of the NWS snowfall reports come from NWS Employees, trained spotters, Park/ Forest Srvc, etc.  Notice the one outlier on the map?  It isn't an official NWS number.  It is the number reported by the resort that has an incentive to over inflate its numbers.

We are not hopeless because we use our brains and logic.  Do you really think it is realistic that the only measurement of 15" of snow in Virginia came from a 3000' mountain in Nelson County?  Not the 4500' mountains of northern and western Augusta County? Not the northern Shenandoah Valley?  Do you think it is plausible that Wintergreen was the only measurement (outside of WV) of 15" of snow that is southwest of greater Philadelphia?

Finally, I will just say this.  My coworker Monica and her husband Chris live up there in a condominium and they told me they got 6", maybe 7" at the most.

https://data.usatoday.com/projects/snowfall-accumulation-tracker/index.html

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow

@hstorm

51 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

Lol

@hstorm

39 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

And you did call him ‘smartboy,’ which is what @hstormwas referring to

31 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg.

Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. 

This is not name calling!   This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

I am not arguing with you reporting the number.  However, that isn’t some joker wandering around.  It was a trained NWS spotter.  Now, the guy who works at the ski resorts?  Not so much.

I am disputing the number because it is ridiculous.  I didn’t know it came from the resort itself, or I would have known it was inflated.  Thanks, @hstorm for comparing time stamps.

I grew up in upstate New York and New England. It’s a well known fact that ski resorts inflate snowfall reports, since they have an economic interest in doing so.

Again, not arguing with you, just disputing that number, which will definitely not be a part of the NWS record as a report from an NWS trained spotter.