WesternFringe

@CAPE@stormtracker@Scraff
 

How much do 4 packs of 120 minute normally cost?

Last time I was here on the eastern shore they were $38.99, but this time they are $18.99

15 hours ago, stormtracker said:

How we lookin?

It's right where we want it at this point before the inevitable north trend.

To upstate NY.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product.

I think it isn’t weight, but more like an outlier skews the mean phenomenon.

eta: but I know you follow it more closely than I do this time of year and I may just be wrong lol

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Better than ANYTHING yesterday lol. I'll clear and inch on this round easy. Might be there already. 15-20:1 stuff. Man I love upper level action. Reminds me of my Colorado years 

It was high ratio fluff for sure.  Added an inch to my 2” yesterday!

2:12 today

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Lt snow filled back in. Might pull off 1.802 or something like that haha

Mesos like my area for the ull in the AM. If I could somehow tack on 1.2 the bust goes back in the bra

Yeah, topped out at around 2”+ here as well.  I don’t measure tenths of an inch because I don’t care to know that much! Lol

It was fun and pretty but didn’t affect ability to travel, which is a perfect outcome sometimes.  

Enough to get the kids 2 days off from school and their mom and I 2 days off from teaching as well.

19° with 2 inches plus on the ground northwest of Staunton in Augusta County.

21° and light steady snow. Just recently passed 1 inch.

The tree down in the background was taken down by a 60 mph gust the other day!

When my wife asked what this storm was going to be like yesterday, I told her it would be like one of those Christmas Hallmark movies where it snows the whole time, but there’s never more than a couple inches on the ground! Lol

Steady, light snow at 18° here northwest of Staunton in Augusta County.   Coming up on an inch otg.

2 minutes ago, Massanothing said:

Maybe I'm missing something but we are starting to get school closures here in the central Shenandoah Valley....Augusta, Staunton, and Waynesboro...

Maybe they are looking at the timing of morning and the latest NWS map and temps maxing out at 24?

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Texas temp range is presently 4F to 87F, near-blizzard in ne OK and e KS. Still needs the uppers to co-operate but the surface components are impressive.  If only the upper low was not so flabby -- I need to pump you up. 

I am more convinced than ever that this poster is a bot. 

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

DT decided to double down. 

Have a map?

45 minutes ago, Kay said:

Daydreaming about a logistically impossible Chincoteague chase

My family and I have a permanent campsite and camper there.  Love that place and have some good friends there!

50 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal!

Depends on location as this is a large subforum.  NWS is getting more bullish for mby today.

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

VAZ025-504-508-190315-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/
Augusta-Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge, and Augusta and Eastern
  Highland Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

 

This was upped from 1 to 2 this morning.  LFG!!

32/12

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... last Friday

 

To be fair, I don't see even one laughing emoji response

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

I love yall.  This forums is the best.  We are like a feedback loop...hyping each other up...

I'd be proud to be in a foxhole with yall during WWII, surrounded by germans on all sides, under heavy shelling, knowing we ain't getting out alive.   And one of you will say, "if we just keep firing at that treeline, we can all just run straight for it."

Sir, do I have permission to shoot at the tree line!?!?

32 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone have an 18z Euro snow map?

I only get the free Pivotal, so no

For comparison, this is the 18z NAM total precip by 12z on Thursday

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I’m going down with the ship. 0Z is bringing the goods. 

West coast data has been ingested. LFG!

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

fixed

It was a reference to a Sir Mix A Lot song before you were born, sorry.

Last storm was supposed to be 4-6” for my area by NWS and then upgraded to 6-8” during the storm.  We got 11”, so opposite of a bust.

10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Lmaooo. There us still a thread for this non storm? Lol. People are really grasping for straws lol

Guess it matters where you live and understanding this is geographically a large forum.

For example, most models give me 2-5”, so yeah, folks like me are still tracking.  

I may end up with zero, but I am not going to stop tracking since DC folks have given up.  Why would I?

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Welcome and yes, models bust weenies everywhere. They do no discriminate. 

Places further north bust different because they are often all snow no matter what when cold air is entrenched so it becomes a QPF game only which is still filled with pkenty of uncertainty and frustration. 

Mixed events or areas where mixed events are typical climo, it adds another very large and complicated bust factor. Very very large. Some around here like big busts though. 

I like big busts and I cannot lie…

36° and light flurries here northwest of Staunton in Augusta county

2 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Remember the definition of model, and for those on the ledge please look it up, and then step back.

The very first post I saw on social media when I logged on today was from a guy saying:

“Remember, storms don’t trend, models do.  Whatever happens was going to happen all along.”

Keeping this in mind is probably a good idea for all of us on this board.  @stormtracker tried to warn everyone not to live and die by every run of every model, but alas, here we are.