WesternFringe

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

So...question about measurements. Around lunchtime, I was on an endless Teams meeting and we had about 45 minutes of fairly heavy snow. It looked like it was nearly an inch but by the time the meeting was over, the sun returned and most of it melted. How would I account (or not) for that?

That’s nearly an inch of snow accumulation then.  Doesn’t matter how long it lasts with regards to accumulation.

As far as snowfall, it was probably more since some melted upon impact with the ground.  You would need a frozen board to measure snowfall.

48° and snow and graupel and intermittent sunshine here in Augusta County nw of Staunton

Super windy with intermittent flurries at 38° and a windchill of 28°.  NW of Staunton in Augusta County

45° and sleeting for the last 20 minutes here NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

This was the warmest winter on record for the contiguous USA:

I chased snow by Jeb hiking up to Little Bald Knob (4350’) in northern Augusta County yesterday. It was awesome!

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

20" is above average in my yard. Did that 2 winters ago.

I have had above average snow 3 of the last 6 winters out here in western Augusta County.  The 3 that weren't had really awful totals, but it hasn't been horrible here all things considered.

Started off rain here as expected.  Snow started mixing in within minutes.  Temp is 38 and dropping fast. Should be all snow for about 3 hrs with some good rates.  LFG!

NW of Staunton

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean it’s not panic if it’s rooted in science. The cards are stacked against us in Ninas and Ninas more often than not double dip.

This is a storm thread and you are canceling the next two winters in it!  Lol

30 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I know but we’ll probably have to wait until 2026-2027 for another chance at an AN snow season.

Is the Panic Room closed for cleaning or something?  

13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

More beer in here than models right now. Not sure if that’s good or bad

It’s not working out very well.  Weenies be cliff diving and stuff!

eta:  Oh, what the hell- here’s my beer pic, too

Temp has dropped from 45 to 40 and humidity has increased from 34% to 52% in the last hour.

NW of Staunton

12 minutes ago, stormy said:

The latest GFS doesn't like your ideas. Only .23.- .39

isn't .39 in the .35-.55 range?

eta: PSU wasn’t talking about forum-wide ranges.  He was saying if you could get qpf in your backyard to .4 to .5 then you can multiply by more than 10 and get 4-8” in places.  At least that was my take.

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I gotta find my map where I parodied his maps.  I think I posted it last year

His start time maps are the best!

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Whatever happens for the rest of this winter, we're going to consolidate the post mortem and its future implications in a single thread. I'd actually prefer if someone starts that now and starts putting the conversation there.  

I thought this was the post mortem thread when I logged on!

eta: heading over to other thread where we are talking about snow 3 days from now 

Is it telling that it’s 46° in Staunton and is snowing and raining at the same time right now?

44 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, the guy who helped developed the RAP says it's shit, lol

To be fair, he only said it was shit for snow totals

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Under did the two snow events and really didn’t get things right until 24-36 in advance.  This event was a big fat Zero 24 hours ago and this thread had zero responses for like 4-6 hours at one point 

im watching radar, wind direction shifts and satellite plus WVapor  now.  Models don’t matter 

You’re watching water vapor?  Wow, that’s cool, bro.  They told me it was invisible in science class.  Dafuq do ‘they’ know anyways?

All kidding aside, nowcasting is a thing and is also an art.  What’s your forecast and for where?

ETA:  ninja’d. See your forecasts above.  Think you will bust high with ground truth, but good luck!  Seriously 

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

Goddamnit, y'all.     I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts.    

The next run of the HRRR is the most important run of our lives 

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z

Pbp on the HRRR!  Love it!

7 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours

I think it is the stronger, more consolidated, and souther closed low pass at 500 that has made the difference.

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The squirrels are going crazy out here today. They know something is coming. 

That, combined with the MGI (Migrating Geese Index), tells me that something significant is afoot. 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Yup

Wondering if models are getting to the point where there is no longer a last minute north trend bias, and storms are just as likely to trend south towards game time?

15 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I don’t know how, and I’ll believe it when I see it, but we might have just reeled in something out of nothing again. Snowtown USA baby! 

Isn’t this 3 snowstorms in the last month or so with significant south trends under 24 hours of onset?

12Z NAM.  Caveats about not accumulating aside, there is a chance for favored areas N and W to see snow falling.