WesternFringe

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If I think that this is going be north of us, do you not want me to say it? Just… be silent?

I’m sorry but that’s not how I roll. If I think it, I’m gonna say it. Just be grateful that I’m not going to repeat it every 5 minutes like some others do

I was defending you in the first line of my post and just being cheeky with Yoda.  I have zero problems with you.

It was meant for those that post they are moving on (which you didn’t) rather than simply moving on.

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

Are you going to say the same to Terpeast?

He didn’t post that he has “moved on.” He just gave his opinion.  But sure, if makes you happy.  

Hey Terpeast, or anyone for that matter, why post in a thread to tell us you have moved on?  Just leave the thread.  We will figure out that you have moved on all by ourselves.  And then the only people left in the thread can track in peace without being heckled by the ones who say they moved on but clearly have not.

23 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I've moved on to the PD weekend fail/ rainstorm.

 

Yet here you are, posting in this thread to tell us you moved on

6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Exactly. I was just laughing as I’m reading all the snarky comments. 

He definitely hugs the Euro, but it does have the highest verification scores, so it makes sense.

What doesn’t make sense is when all other guidance and ensembles are against it and he still hugs the Euro.  It isn’t THAT much better than other globals.

21 on the way to work in Augusta County

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

E

Even great patterns require a dash of luck....hopeful it will happen, but it is not a lock until we have a threat inside a few days.

But why post one member from an ensemble?  From last night’s run?  Seems like deliberate debbing man

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's also what I was wondering. I mean...would we want a slightly weaker block to avoid potential suppression?

You know by reading here going into a block or relaxing from a block is our best chance

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS.... this is better.

These maps are worthless without analysis.

Western Augusta County looks like 1-3” on the Nams.  With lows around 32 and slow rates, most likely a coating to an inch at best for just west of Staunton, but farther west might get an inch or two.

5 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

What exactly is a KU?

An epic east coast snowstorm.  Authors Kocin and Uccellini literally wrote the book on it (2 volumes).  Thus, the K and the U.

Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1 and Volume 2 Set. (Volume 32) https://a.co/d/4hzHYhk

eta: ninja’d by GATECH

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM a little better?

Definitely better for mby and points further north in the Shenandoah Valley

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Calling it now.  2-4

 

flakes

Think I am screwed down here, but every once in awhile the Euro throws snow tv my way, even down here in Augusta at elevation (.5” to 1”)

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Of course Mt PSU gets jackpotted… 

My favorite is that every map that shows snow by the MD PA border is where PSU lives when people post about it.  And where he lives is depicted wildly over time.  Even if it is north of Hagerstown at times or to the east all the way to Lineboro wherever a storm jacks is Mt PSU.  

Literally have nothing against PSU- your analysis is amazing and you are a bright dude who knows way more about weather than I do.  Just think it is funny that people adjust where you live by wherever the jackpot is in any given clown map!

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend. 

 

I know we are hoping against hope with this one, but that blend has been way low for the last 2 snowstorms at least where I live.

edit: How did it do for others’ backyards?

Car said 8 degrees driving through Churchville in Augusta County this morning.

Snowing nicely again here.  2.2” so far.  27 degrees.  NW of Staunton.  Beautiful!

12 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Alarm set for 5am. Coffee (maybe an espresso martini instead) and a Jebwalk definitely happening. For me personally, this is why I spend countless hours obsessing about snow in this place. I truly just love getting outside when it’s rippin white fluffy asteroids, and the only sound I can hear are the flakes hitting my jacket (and JI screaming he sees the back edge). So soothing and peaceful. Lolz. Looking forward to another beautiful snow day in the DMV…

More like 3:00 am here.  Snow, Djokovic, and wood stove! 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I'm buzzed and having fun.  This is great.  Event starts in like 10 hours.  I think Imma stay up.  I can work all day on 0 hours of sleep, right?

It matters how your evaluation went.  

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Natty blend good trend

Agreed with the trend, but I feel like it is always behind.  Last storm, and this one as well.  More useful if models are stable than it is super close to an event when they are trending.

18 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Agree 500%. I detest living in the DMV, but if I could remedy the situation at all (or had to stay in VA for the rest of my life)...I would live in the Valley. Our youngest attended and graduated from JMU several years ago...and I relished every opportunity that we got to drive out of the metro area, out west on 66 and down south on 81...and see the kind of views that you posted here. #HeavenOnEarth

As someone who has lived in the valley for 17 years, I can attest to the fact that the view looking east to the Blue Ridge and the view looking west to the Alleghenys never gets old! 

36 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Typically the short range and last globals before an event go in the obs thread I think.

It has been so long since many here have had back-to-back short-term snow threads of interest that we forgot how to do it!

3k looks better and more realistic than the 12k, but stuck at 50 on TT

16 minutes ago, Demeter said:

It definitely happened this last storm. I am in the Spotsylvania area and we had a bullseye for a while. The final 24 hours of modeling moved it north a ways and final results were north getting more. (It’s the same with most storms). I only remember a handful where I got more than the north crew in the last 15 years. 

Sorry it didn’t work out for you, but for most folks the last storm trended better in the last 24-36 hours if you go back and read the thread.  I don’t think the guidance shifted north late much for most longitudes in this sub.  I think it was the opposite and the last minute trends were good.

2 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Idk guys, hate being in bullseye or southern edge this far out... North trends always loom

Didn’t happen in this last storm.