WesternFringe

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We got it

I like how Solution Man is literally the solution.

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. 
 

Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 

It was snowing here when the sun came up and it is still snowing!  I don’t care if it has only accumulated an inch or two so far.  It has been awesome! 29°

Despite the radar returns (I live in a well-documented radar hole that is shaped like an isosceles triangle), it has been snowing all day here.  Only have about 1.5” to show for it, but I will take a cold smoke snow for 24 hrs straight storm all day every day.  NFL playoff football and a roaring wood stove and good beer and herbs and snow.  Life is good, y’all!

20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That's odd. I'm seeing a different map for the same map time.

This map is event total.  The map you might be referring to is Monday 7:00am until tomorrow, which shows less since some has fallen already, especially down in the SW portions of the lwx area

19 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

you all go into downtown Staunton or you have another spot?  Enjoy!!

We just go to my buddy’s house in Staunton since he is a bachelor.  It was a blast watching the Cowboys get crushed (I am a Washington fan)!

25° and lightly snowing.  Approaching 1” here in NW Augusta County.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Y’all are fucking alcoholics. My kinda crew. 

Heading out to hang with my fellas and keep the Sunday wild card NFL tradition going.  It has been over a decade and even babies being born soon before and soon after and snow storms haven’t been able to stop it.  
 

Might need my 16 yr old son to pick me up tonight!  Beer and legal herbs and cold and football and snow squalls and a 2-4”+ event tomorrow night help the mood.  We are all teachers and could use a snow day for sure. 
 

Hope all in this sub-forum score a cold smoke even tomorrow night!

Snow squall line came through with moderate flurries at the peak (about 20 minutes ago).  34° and feels cold af outside with the high winds.

nw of Staunton in Augusta County

2 hours ago, paulythegun said:

15z SREF snow mean

You can see the skip even in the short term models.  @Heisy is annoyingly accurate in his analysis.  Lol

35° and flurries here northwest of Stanton in Augusta county

I’m am not sure where the panic room is bc I have never been there, but some of you all might want to find it and check it out! 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

The Euro did. But it wasnt real good either. 

It gave me 4”, but I got “zero point zero.”

41 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What a dumb hobby.  Why did we all get cursed with this?   Get this...there are sickos out there who don't care if it snows or not.  They have no concept of weather.  They go about their day and check an app maybe once or twice a week.   And if a storm doesn't come...they are un phased.   What must that be like?  Have yall thought about these people? They are amongst us and they are in way bigger numbers.

Yeah, they are called weirdos or freaks.  We are the normal ones.  Right?  Right??  Please say right 

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

EPS is in range now, 12z, LP is definitely a tick east (look at the 1012mb line), and a tick stronger:

versus 00z:

Looks a tick west to me.

18 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I broke the accumulations down to 6 and 12 hr intervals and stormvista gave nothing.  Here's it's 24 hr amounts.  If it snows that lightly we'd be lucky to get more than a coating.  Graphic is courtesy of StormVista.

If the one outlier of all the models is taken verbatim as the final solution, then you would be right.  Hopefully, there is a continued move towards the GFS/CMC/UKie camp for the Euro.

40 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What’s everyone gut tell them about 12z Euro? More disappointment or throws us a bone and a middle of the road solution? 

My gut thinks it moves ever so slightly towards more amped and less flat, ticking NW only slightly.  Leaving us all thoroughly confused and uncertain of the final outcome.

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS, not very convincing...

But when the probability maps have been encouraging, how has that worked out?  Bottom line is not to put much stock into these probability maps, because they are very rarely correct.

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

.

I think you slowed it down some as to not induce seizures at the same rate.  Thanks!

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

RGEM at this range? (or any FTM) Come on dude. BTW many of your posts are kinda seizure inducing. Headache at minimum.

Agreed.  Maybe slowing down the loop of the 2 images would help?

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I thought 09 was one of the better ones in that frame.  Shows what I know…nothing 

Those are the last 2 numbers in the pressure of the slp, not the enemble member number

34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I just looked at a model pack with 70 differing solutions for DC. From 0 to 15”. That’s A Lot of Examples.  How many more would you need to call it “every possible outcome” ??

Did you see any 70 degree days in there? No?  

I bet you saw the vast majority of members showing a storm on or around the 16th.  That isn’t every possible outcome.  That is a specific outcome of a shortwave passing by.

Were some solutions warmer and some further north or further south?  Sure, because the models don’t have it pinned down from 6 days out.  But because of models, we know it is going to be cold and that a shortwave will be passing by the mid-atlantic.  Which is why we are all in here and talking about the 16th and the 20th.

How would you know that without models? And how would we know that if models were showing every possible outcome?

Furthermore, the individually perturbed members are meant to be taken in aggregate, not as 70 different models.

eta: I recall you saying that the cold would stay in place for the last storm and the mesos showing mixing and cold rain were wrong.  Were they wrong?  Or did the southerly winds at the midlevels cause mixing and rain for most?

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Because, they are show every possible outcome 

I think I’m beginning to understand that models are for fun but not forecasting. This can help alleviate some of my angst and poor interactions at times.

When it shows snow and 28 at noon today for Tuesday and then shows rain and 60 at 18z then Neither was a Prediction of an actual high percentage outcome but rather an example of “if a,b,c, d” then such an outcome will follow and 6 hours later show “e,f,g,h” and just keep rotating every 6 hours.

im happy to finally get this through my thick head and perhaps I can just sit back and enjoy the myriad of examples that will be forthcoming. 

I think you are getting closer to the way most of us think about models, but they are tools for forecasting (meteorologists literally use them as tools to do so) and they don't show every possible outcome.  Without models, we would have no idea that it is going to get very cold next week, for example.  Now, we don't know exactly what each shortwave is going to do 5-10 days away, but we do know the major players at 500 and the overall synoptic set-up that will drive the weather during this timeframe.

West Augusta had and inch or two of snow this morning.  School division is closed due ‘power outages and rapidly deteriorating road conditions.’

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Family down in Staunton claims not to have seen a single flake. Glad I didn’t attempt to chase down to that part of I-81. Or anywhere really

I have seen at least 6 flakes and I am NW of Staunton about 8 miles.

30° and heavy sleet with snowflakes mixing in here NW of Staunton.