WesternFringe

All (wet) snow has started!

ETA: pouring snow

37°, but equal amounts of snow and sleet mixing with rain now

Rain mixing with sleet and a random huge snowflake mixing in, too!

nw of Staunton 

39° and rain, models show it flipping to mix and then snow in less than 2 hrs.  Fingers crossed

Meanwhile, Cowboys vs Eagles with the wood stove!

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS:  snow 1am to 4 am.  Cleared out before 6am.  Surface temps in mid 30s.

Looks like 1-3” and 32° for western part of our county!  We take!

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m concerned the sonic waves could disrupt the hemispheric energies necessary for the propagation of the thermal boundary.  Why hasn’t it changed over yet?  Radar looks like crap.  I can see the back edge. 

But it was never forecast to changeover until…..

1 minute ago, hstorm said:

I believe the correct word is sarcasm. 

Sorry, at times I can’t tell the difference between those on here who have been legit panicking and debbing and those employing sarcasm.

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Started as rain and temps seem far from freezing 

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Snowstorm bust?

It was never forecast to start as anything but warm rain, but if it is stressing y’all out, there is a panic room!

Rain and thunder with 55° here in Augusta County NW of Staunton

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

snow depth maps always verify the best

Any way to zoom out that map a little more?  Lol

I think it says 2-4” for Augusta County, but not really sure!

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah because cold air is coming in from the west. 

If you are talking accumulation, I get it.  Just saying the 850s are really good on the back end of the front regardless of the surface temp In Pittsburgh, which many in this forum have elevation on

3 hours ago, rjvanals said:

Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo

Look at the 850 temps.  Pittsburgh?

TT's map looks way different than WB's...

GFS has mby fringed on the east of the best snow, NAM has me fringed on the west.  Seems legit- lol.

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The signs  of  a  pattern change might  be there but the  cold  air  isnt

 

about the  coldest time  of day and nothing remarkable anywhere  in the  US

 

It's an op run at range, which isn't worth discussing.

36 and flurries here in Swoope in Augusta County

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Feb 1987 is also a loss based on my analysis, yes

Now we are retroactively downgrading storms from the past based on the present. Lol.  Awesome!

ETA:  Nothing would be at all the same about the 500 progression or the surface if there were different temperatures at play.  But pretend like you could change one variable and everything else stays the same!  Only PSU is allowed to do that! 
 

Etaa: btw, I love PSU’s analysis (big ups, man) and learn a lot from him and CAPE And Terpeast and Eskimo Joe and Brooklyn and Mappy etc.  Sincerely thank you all for the analysis.

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

over 5 feet tears

Western Fringed with 23” lol.  Op at hour 312 for the win!

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Something could easily happen between Christmas and new years

I agree 100%.  The weeklies might be good for getting a general idea of what average temps over a future time period are forecast to be, and I get that.  But not sure where this idea came from that we have to average lower than normal temps over an entire week for it to snow.

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.

So, over a 5 day period that starts a week and a half from now, we will average 1°F over normal cold December temps. Got it. 

On 11/28/2023 at 5:00 PM, stormy said:

27 at 5 pm and headed toward 5 GEM, 18 GFS and 20 ECM............

Some of my HS students said their thermometers at home and in their cars said 9 or 10 degrees that morning.  My heat pump’s online temp said it was 14 when I checked around 8:00am that morning.  Was driving an old truck instead of my car so I didn’t have the temp displayed in my own vehicle

Y’all live and die with every op run thinking this time must be the final solution. 

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though?

A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant.

I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us which much better climo than IAD

Yeah, not worried about the high here today (50) affecting ground temps in 6 days, especially since the lows are below freezing on Monday and Tuesday night.

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I’m a bit worried about the 850 line at Day 27 tho. Warm nose?

Exactly.  What are the verification scores for the Euro weeklies on temps 1-4 weeks out? How about those DJF temp maps?  I honestly don’t know, but I would be surprised if they were high.

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I have been watching the weeklies every day because I look for trends.  The trends are delaying the sustained cold until late December.  Could something pop up in a sea of warm.  Sure!  But that is not going to get picked up outside a couple days at best.  

What sea of warm?  Last I saw, all these long range temp predictions were saying about an average December, which is cold enough to snow where I live at least.  Forecast has 7 of the first 13 nights of December below freezing here.