WesternFringe

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I love how we think "What an amazing signal at XX days" when the ensemble snow map shows like 3.4" while it shows 28" in SNE. I mean...what kind of signal would *that* be?

This is a good point and I agree with you, but that map also includes the 5-18" PA, upstate NY, and southern NE are getting this weekend to be fair.

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We're really digging deep for some snow.   It ain't gonna happen.  

Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds.

15 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yes exactly. If eps is right we’d want to see the ULL around lakes progress a little faster east leaving some room for backside trough to amplify. Right now everything is just too far N and not spaced right, we also don’t really have agreement on how the pac energy and PNA ridge evolve. As Ji said it would be nice to actually get some damn blue over the mid Atlantic on one OP or ensemble run


.

But you compared 2 Euro runs a day apart that DO show the energy ejected more quickly east.  I am confused now lol

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

One for the ages. I failed photoshop class, while you obviously earned honors.


Im still right though! Verbatim it’s not an ideal look for the Mid-Atlantic, yet… key word, yet.

If we see changes on upcoming OP/EPS runs that make positive steps to a better winter storm I’ll be the first one on board…

Spot the difference

One is faster with the lower heights moving east?

1 hour ago, alexderiemer said:

this might be the funniest thing I've seen in about 5 years on here.

Did you miss his Hitler meeting with his generals YouTube video?  Hard to top that, but this was funny af for sure!

1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said:

Taken at face value this is illogical and makes absolutely zero sense. Especially given the fact that we've had multiple storms since (and numerous prior) that have been way better....by far.

What are we missing?

One of my favorite parts of this sub is folks arguing about impossible hypotheticals, like giving up 5 years of snow for a March 93 redux.

It’s ridiculous, so my turn. : )

No way I would give up 5 years of snow for one storm.  This board melts down when we have one putrid winter.  Imagine the absolute train wreck it would be in here if we failed for 5 consecutive years bc one poster made a deal with the devil like this that took!

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is just my opinion, but I’ve found they’re not nearly as misleading if you factor in probability and take a mean of multiple runs. Since usually we’re looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.  What I’ve noted is sometimes some have a tendency to over weight the snowy runs and forget the non. If a couple runs are snowy and a couple are not you can either say “the guidance is wrong no matter what” which is the weather53 method or you can factor them all in together and interpret that as probabilities were never that high.  
 

not once all winter did the 3” probabilities get near 50% for any consistent period across guidance. And only once all winter did the probabilities for 1” get near 50 and that was when we did get that minor snow and about 1/2” in many places. 
 

You’re right if you simply add up all the snow from each individual run of guidance it’s grossly over predicts snow. But Imo that’s misleading because it fails to account for both runs that don’t show snow or probability which often shows the mean is skewed by snowy outliers and not what is indicated as the most likely outcome. 

“…looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.”

Agreed- you make many valid points, but this is the best one.  My comment was more towards how many times daily I have been ‘ensembled’ mapped (NAM’d) to see exactly nothing produce from it.

Also, I am at 1550’ and way further west in a predominantly cutter pattern due to the SER, so ensembles have been accordingly bullish all winter showing much better percentages than you are saying that you have seen.  To no avail.

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So my local news weather is suggesting ill be mid 60s fri?

If you read LWX’s discussion, they said they had roughly half of guidance showing 30s and wintry weather and the other half showing 70s, so they split the difference and said 40s/50s.  I suspect your local news station either did the same or agrees with the trend of a NW passing system that brings in warm air from the south.

23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I ain’t over till.. oh wait never mind. 

We have one more window mid-month after the 3/4 hail mary, and after that I am done tracking winter weather and rooting for 70s and working my greenhouse 

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to know how to read them. If there is a mean of 3” over 15 days but the probability of 3” is only 25% that does not mean the ensemble is predicting 3” of snow. 

I know how to read them, but okay, fair point, so multiply them by .25- still missing LOTS of snow.  There have been many, many times this winter I have been in the 80%+ probability zone for more than an inch and the 50% to 90% probability zone for more than 3 inches.  I have 1.5” of snow this winter with another 1-2” of sleet.  They never verify this winter, even when showing high probabilities. They have been egregiously useless this winter wrt snowfall, full stop.

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show  climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect. 

Yeah, we are all missing 30-50” inches vs those ensemble maps verbatim this year

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Very true...and I know you typically aren't a deb, though at times quite snarky this winter.  Which I totally get, given how utterly frustrating it has been.  I don't think anyone with any sense of reason expected a "great" winter this year by any means.  But I really don't think anyone, even the most pessimistic, thought it would be this devoid of anything.  Like essentially wall-to-wall.  The anti 2013-14 so to speak!  We've had one 0.5" snow early morning on February 1 (where I'm at, anyhow) that was gone before noon...well, OK, there was like 15 min. of some flurries at the start of that Arctic blast over Christmas weekend and a bit of snow TV yesterday.  And it's not just the paucity of snow, it's also just how extremely warm it's been (other than most of December being a bit below normal, enhanced by Christmas weekend).  When you have a +7 temperature departure for January and February (just looking at DCA for reference, but pretty much the same most everywhere here), you're really hard pressed to get anything.  Not like we've been cold and dry or anything like that.

So assuming we don't really get anything the rest of this season, offhand, what would you rank this winter in terms of futility or near-shutout?  Say, compared to 2001-02, 2011-12, or 2019-20 for instance?  In terms of warmth and lack of snow?

Futility thread is there for a reason lol

eta:  Not completely giving up on this storm, but I do agree the writing is on the wall most likely.  Let’s see if CAPE’s/Stormchaser Chuck’s/PSU’s mid month period works out.  That combo of people is like the Euro/Icon/GFS all agreeing on a snow threat, so it is probably our best chance to salvage this craphole of a winter!

7 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Well, I saw some flakes. But nothing close to any kind of accumulation. Those maps were awful. Looks like the heaviest preciP was wayyyy south. Next.

We had light rain, then heavy rain, and finally sleet here NW of Staunton.

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surrounded by SLPs- it's happening!!

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I took several days off and I see we’re still relying on day 11 control runs. Yup. 

The big storm is only 10 (or 11) days away!  This winter sucks.  Lol

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

They are pretty much here..80s?

Got to 70 here today

11/15/22.    Wet snow mixed with the rain

11/17/22.    Flurries early

11/18/22.    Flurries early evening 

12/15/22.    1” of sleet/snow and freezing rain

12/22/22.    Trace of sleet and more freezing rain

1/8/23.  Trace of Sleet and freezing rain

1/11/23 Some snow mixed with rain

1/23/23 Flurries intermittent 

1/26/23 afternoon flurries 

1/27/23 morning flurries

2/1/23.  1.5” snow

2/12/23 0.5” sleet and snow mixing in with rain

season total: 3”

1 hour ago, MacChump said:

i’ve got a post all set to bump

Where is the eye roll emoji?

A bunch of sleet here (1/2” accum) this morning and then cold rain.  Never got above 33 today even though the forecast was for 38-41.  Lots of ice so far.  Seeing some big wet snow flakes mix in more often now.  NWS says 1-3” tonight, but I am just hoping everything is coated white and then we stay below freezing overnight!  

33° with freezing rain and snow mixing in. NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

eta: 31° and freezing raining. Ice is starting to build up.  Seeing some snow, but not a lot as of now.

12 minutes ago, MacChump said:

thank you, I didn’t think it was really all that subtle lol

It’s not and we get it.  You are funny. Now can you please just go cheer for your eagles tomorrow and leave us alone in this storm thread that won’t come near you?  Please?

54 minutes ago, MacChump said:

bumping tomorrow too, fyi…just one more time…I have no choice in the matter, there are bigger things at stake

Okay.  Keep us posted.

3 hours ago, MacChump said:

bump

Bump this, MacChump!  Lol

.

0Z Euro ups the ante to 2-6” for western VA. Anyone have the 6Z?

.

7 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Who gives a fuck? Its rain.

NWS has 1-4” for Augusta County, so some of us do give a fuck. Also, why come to this unpinned storm thread to tell us who gives a fuck and that it is rain? Who does that except a troll? Go be a miserable troll elsewhere, please.

You know it is bad when a current article on accuweather says this:

As the snow drought continues along the I-95 zone of the mid-Atlantic, southern cities such as Knoxville, Tennessee, have already picked up 1.6 inches, which is more than all of the snow that has fallen so far in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City combined. A number of additional southern cities may join that list in the wake of this storm.