WesternFringe

7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

No it doesn't.  That's a 10:1 snowfall map.  Fv3 doesn't provide the depth charts yet.

I know it is 10:1, but kuchera says expect better than that.  I wasn't aware of a rule that says we all go by depth charts.  Are the surfaces not cold enough up there?  It is 33 degrees down here right now and last night was 26, so there won't be much difference between snowfall and snow depth imo.

18Z FV3 gives a half an inch  to 1 inch of snow to DC

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

FV3 is south, darn

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_020_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

that is at 9:00 am, before any of the models were showing snow in my area, let alone NoVa and DC

1 hour ago, snjókoma said:

The 3K NAM has a whopping 0.0" of precipitation for anywhere north of Woodbridge.

I hear you, but not all of us live in the northern part of the forum, so the modeled weather obviously isn't the same .  11/15/18 was snow for you and sleet for me, for example.  I was asking about the relative verification scores of the 3k NAM  within 24 hours.

edit:  I thought someone posted a map of snow falling into MD from the 3k.  It must have been the virga that was being discussed.  My apologies.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

You guy do realize that not one legit model gives us precip right? Even with all the north trends today

You don't think the 3KNAM is a legit model within 24 hours onset?  I am asking this seriously

12 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

When do we start using much shorter range models like the HRRR, RAP and others? I thought lots of models like the NAM, GFS, Euro are not as accurate when you are literally inside 12 hours or less from go time?

NAM is a short-term mesoscale model that does well inside 24 hours.  However, it has the same weakness as the globals (which are kings of medium range timeframes) in that they only update every 6 hours or 12 hours.  Inside 12 hours, especially within 5 hours,  the short term models gain more weight in consideration since they are run with new data every hour.

BobChill is back, things must be trending well!  MBY went from a 150 mile yard whiff on Thursday to likely 4 to 8" in my county north to south.  It has been fun tracking this storm since November.  NWP is pretty awesome.

Will the Canadian take the crown for this storm, with regards to our subforum at least?  I know we don't know yet, but I am curious as to what you all think at this point in time.

10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I’m not even gonna say it 

seriously though, EPS is soon right??

A little late in the game for ensembles, isn't it?  20 or so  hours until onset of precip here, according to many of the models.

I miss Scud, since he would be giving us essential bits of wisdom and insight, like "watch the storm" 

All joking aside, the high to our north being over-modeled at range has been a blessing.  The storm isn't trending north, really.  The models are just catching up to the way it was always going to unfold.  I hope everyone in this subforum gets in on the game!

Kuchera ratios at 15Z  and 18Z tomorrow per the 12Z FV3.  Good ratios for all, especially good for mby:

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. 

 

Check this error.

 

That's the NAM at 60 vs actual, right?  The NAM at this range is much more deadly, especially the 3k

Out to 44

Just now, yoda said:

12z JMA is good to go lol

I haven't been following it, but didn't Ji post about the JMA being further north than all the models a couple days ago?

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

You have RGEM/NAM(to an extent)/Canadian in a more northern camp. GFS last run slowly had the heavier precip creep back north but this would only be good for southern VA. Basically you have those 3 I mentioned first vs EURO/GFS/UKMET. I mean if anything I’d personally rather have the high res models in my favor. I know the precip down south has been laying down some serious qpf totals in TX so hopefully this translates up this way. Obv we know there is going to be a ridiculous cutoff zone.

Btw, RGEM track looks pretty similar to 18z, just looks like better expansion of heavier snow shield.

I agree with your analysis of the 2 main camps, but even the EURO/GFS/UKMET all moved the precip further north in their latest runs compared to their previous.  The magnitude of the trend may not be large, but the direction is clear (as of now) and indicates to me that the final solution isn't locked in or written in stone yet.  Or perhaps I am just seeing what I want to see?  lol

0Z RGEM is either a bit north of 18Z with the precip shield, or faster with the precip, or both. 

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The 3K doesnt even get precip into Richmond I dont think. 

Hours 42 through 50 it does (on TT)

1 minute ago, Inthepines said:

Wow! That’s impressive for Wednesday do you have some elevation?

1545' - What is weird is that I work 18 miles southeast of my house where we got far less and nothing that stuck to roads nor much on the grass.  I drove home to a pleasant surprise!

19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Fair assessment. I’ve always posted here and the southeast since I’ve moved to VA from CT back in 2011. Never had anyone complain. Just thought it was comical. 

Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from!

I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton).  I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow.  We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one.  I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through all the northern members getting snow.  I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south!  I grew up in upstate NY.

15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Wait so we are considered the southern part of the forum? Because I remember several joe schmo’s the other day b*tch about how they’re sick of southern VA people posting and confusing everyone about trends etc and how we are the southeast.....  lollll. 

Anyhow, got to say the trends on the 18z Icon, nam and RGEM make you think what could be down here. Even the old gfs has trended ever so slightly back north with the heavier precip. 

I guess it matters where you think you live.  I read this to mean Central VA is the southern part of the forum:

2 minutes ago, Scud said:

Watch the storm...

That's what we all are doing, other than you with your inane posts.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAM and GFS was south...everything else north.  

Thanks, PSU.  I am very interested to see if the 12Z Euro comes back north with the precipitation as well.

1 minute ago, Scud said:

Whose your daddy.

He's a teacher, and he taught me how to spell who's as well as when to use a question mark.  Pretty awesome, isn't he?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one here wants you to do any posts

Agreed, although I think he means "who's your daddy", not "whose." 

Back to model discussion, other than the old GFS, hasn't every model in the 12Z suite come north?  May not end up being enough to save the DC metro and north crew, but sure would help those in the southern half of this forum (CHO, Staunton, etc.)

At 45, the L is actually slightly SW of the 18Z, but the precip shield is further north

At 90, the 18Z FV3 has the low in southern GA rather than around Tampa like its last 2 runs.  Precip shield is further north by a few counties as well.

12Z vs 18Z