Greg

It's funny how people keep showing 21.4" for that January 20th-21st storm when the whole storm total was actually 21.5" based on Boston Coop Data. I guess the 21.4" fell slightly inside of 24 hours with about 0.1" falling less than 20 minutes or so.

I've checked Coop of Brockton, Beechwood, Bridgewater, Plymouth/Kingston area. Haven't see anything go over 4 feet. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-176575A0-3AE2-4A95-A3DD-E1286F5DCB0D-wxc3.pdf Station: BOXFORD 2.4 S, MA US US1MAES0012 Observation Time Temperature: Unknown Observation Time Precipitation: Unknown 24 Hour Amounts Ending at Observation Time: Date/Precip/Snowfall/ Depth 2015/02/01 0.00 0.0 21.0 2015/02/02 0.33 6.6 34.5 2015/02/04 0.00 0.0 33.0 2015/02/05 0.13 0.1 30.0 2015/02/06 0.02 0.9 31.0 2015/02/07 0.00 0.0 28.0 2015/02/08 0.33 5.5 31.5 2015/02/09 0.29 5.8 37.0 2015/02/10 0.26 7.8 44.0 2015/02/11 0.00 0.0 42.0 2015/02/12 T T 0.0 40.0 2015/02/13 0.08 1.5 39.0 2015 /02 /4 0.00 0.0 39.0 2015/02/15 0.78 12.0 50.0 2015/02/16 0.02 0.6 50.0 2015/02 /17 0.00 0.0 48.0 2015/02/1 T T 0.0 45.0 2015/02/19 0.06 1.5 45.0 2015/02/20 T 0.1 43.0 2015/02/21 0.00 0.0 42.0 2015/02/22 0.29 2.1 42.0 2015/02/23 T T 0.0 35.0 2015/02/24 0.00 0.0 30.0 2015/02/25 0.04 0.8 30.0 2015/02/26 0.00 0.0 29.5 2015/02/27 T 0.1 29.5 2015/02/28 0.00 0.0 28.5 Summary Precip: 3.06 Total Snowfall: 52.4

IPS-176575A0-3AE2-4A95-A3DD-E1286F5DCB0D-wxc3.pdf (noaa.gov) Quick Data View: GHCND - GHCND:US1MAES0012; 2/1/2015 | Climate Data Online (CDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

I have to disagree with that assessment, especially if spotters used the 6 hour clearing method with many of those storms throughout that intense period. I can prove it with real data who had more snow on the ground. Boxford, MA actually comes in with 48-50" on ground at the highest depth by mid February even Newburyport.at 48".

I don't really know why many people just say south and southwest of Boston got over 100" of snow. The whole Boston area in general was in that years bullseye. The northwest suburbs and Northshore received very similar and even slightly more in a couple of places, especially the immediate Northshore with help of Ocean Effect Snow at times.

Actually, the snow took only a day or two to sublimate. Most of the storms we got that stretch were fluffy and dry. That type of snow is far less dense and usually compacts fairly quickly.

I've seen winters similar to this for quite some time. Nothing is ever really set in stone. It could end up being a ratter in the making or it can end up coming back out of nowhere. Seen it before. It's all about weather pattern recognition.

My overall comment was actually based towards the comment by "Damage In Tolland". Which was, "4”+ is a lock OTG by this time next Sat". Which makes my comment geared towards him correct.

I usually sum it up with measuring technique problems.

Generally speaking, that's what it seems to be at this time.

What did we say about trusting any model over 48 hours out. Never mind 5-10 days out.

I have a feeling based on past forecasts, CAR maybe closer to reality than GYX with this one given the latest storm track.

Not all, but some were. Others reported the total snow depths (old snow on the ground and from the storm) and not just the snowfall. I researched it.

Got about 0.6" from that. 22.8" Winter total so far.

Absolutely!

Nah, Congrats Fitchburg and Jaffrey on that particular model.

I think its' trying to sniff out a very sneeky layer, about 10K feet of lower BL that might get into the southern CT region. Not a forecast, but a caution as we go forward.

It's physics is superior you know. Not God, but really good. Last Global to look at before the storm.

I fully agree with you. the HRRR is not garbage. It is a good tool for "now" casting as the storm just begins. It helps you pic out the potential heavier band closer to real time.

Watching the Euro come out now before I stop looking at the Globals and focus on the Meso models.

That's a little aggressive but not by much.

Going to stay for the 12Z Euro then just use the HRRR to track the storms' short future moves.

15-1 Ratios will be the max.