Personally I think with the help of OES Plymouth, MA, and Taunton, MA get hit. Then a nice ribbon over to Providence, RI, Willimantic, CT to Middleton, CT and Danbury, Ct is the best spot for this so far.
One of my worries here really is that the GFS actually catches up with the other models, has the storm go to the 40/70 Benchmark, which is good! But, as the moisture approaches it end up getting eaten quite a bit in the very dry cold air aloft. That is my biggest worry out of this whole thing.
Based on the reading of the BOX from Boston Weather. We need that center to come close or directly over the 40/70 Benchmark to get something good here or we're looking at 3-6" of very dry fluffy snow / pixie dust Boston area and immediate North Shore with a very narrow band of 6-12" on the far South Shore.
That's why even I don't buy it verbatim. Too sharp of a cutoff north and looking solution. Honestly I don't see Lowell, MA getting 16" of fluffy snow here. Maybe 10-11" but in my forecast that's max for that area even with potential fluff factor involved.
A lot of things have changed since then. Yes, we have had a boon in storms but measuring technique has changed, for many newbies, which as everybody knows I despise. There are much more weather spotters, better computer models 24/7, and of course the news which tends to sensationalize what were mostly moderate storms of the past. Moderate meaning old definition: 4-8",5-10", and even 6-12" storms. We had discussion on this board quite a while back.
The Euro will be interesting. I have may doubts about the GFS beating the higher res and better physics of the other models. Hell, Even the GFS Para, Which isn't usually taken seriously, almost grazed Nantucket with the surface Low. So again, How can the GFS be like this at this juncture? I will definitely be impressed and disappointed if it somehow ends up being correct.
I guess I could have been a little bit more clear. It's the only model pretty much giving you most of the goods but pretty much shutting out southern New England and even New York City for the most part.
No, but I was strictly looking at the duration of the storm for Southwest CT when I stated that. I stated a little earlier that nobody should go over 15 hours straight snow unless the ocean effect snow linger a tad longer in duration.