Greg

Time of year/climo, Water temps, and BL issues.

The GFS still makes me queasy but even Boston Mets seem to think the Euro may have a better grasp of the potential situation. That being said, It overall, as many have already alluded to, once this thing goes off the coast it will hit a "Brick Wall" of cold. Usually I like my high pressure center to the north/northwest of New England Draining cold air in (More Classic) than a high pressure situated north/northeast of here, draining the cold air down. This explains very well the abrupt right hook the storm center takes to the east/northeast instead of just classically northeastward.

Watch now how the model changes again at 6Z.

James, trust me... this is NOT an 18-24 Hour storm. It's pretty progressive in the flow.

We should focus on Mondays situation first then put all our energy into the Thursday potential.

I don't see this storm going over 15 hours for us here in Eastern Southern New England.

I was looking through the "KU" book carefully. One "weak" but potential storm analog is the December 10-13 1960 Northeaster (La Nina Winter). Again a weak analog. However, in the "Near Misses" section, there are a couple that come close. Need to be closer to the potential event before even I can narrow this down to anything similar in this potential set-up.

Rays thoughts are correct. The only question right now since it's 4-5 Days out is how close or how far off shore this main surface low tracks. We all know the drill. Clown maps are fun to look at but we'll all see what the reality is on the ground Thursday in our neck of the woods. However, it is nice to see the heart of our viewing area in the crosshairs for this potential snow event.

Not sure about east being so bad. Here in Wilmington I picked up about 5.0" from the October 30th storm and 2.5" from the December 5th storm. Total so far 7.5. Not bad as far as I'm concerned.

Man this thing is hailing its' butt.

Stated that same thing earlier.

What I'm overall getting at is "Verticle Vorticity" When the precip rates are the most intense over you, it helps bring down the colder air from above.

I can't believe that potentially the pre Halloween storm will have heavier snow totals vs this northeaster. I had about 5" in that, I'm actually wondering if it's at all possible to get close to that now given this radar.

Again folks, most precip intensity driven.

Many areas will be around freezing this evening and late tonight. The real key to the forecast for final accumulations rest on those bands hanging over you. Once it lets up, it becomes very showery in nature. So a very precipitation rate intensity driven storm. The storm track is fine, the airmass is debatable.

Track looks really good.

Center of the storm is still off shore just south/southwest of Nantucket moving northeast. Dryslot over the outer elbow of the Cape. Hopefully this Banding sets up just right so we can get some good snows to fall within this relatively short period of time left.

No, A dryslot. The center is still off shore, just barely south, southwest of Nantucket. You can see it on the satellite image.

Boston Weather Service seems to think the track is staying mostly off shore and not over the Cape and Islands as some but not all the models have. So that may be where the difference in thinking is. Which may translate to the potential heavier amounts shown.

It actually could on the low end of the scale of that. This will have better dynamics than the 4.3" storm before Halloween.

No. Different track, longer duration storm.

Tightly packed and wound-up system.

That's a little aggressive with the forward speed of this thing. Thinking Boston area Northshore 4-8", Higher Elevation from Central-Eastern CT, Worcester to Southeast NH to Eastern ME 8-12". Normal Measuring technique.

Not sure I totally agree with that statement. The - NAO depending on how far back with weather data you go generally indicates a fairly even percentage on that.

I saw a 1.5" reported in Charlestown at 10:36AM on the National Weather Service site. Been snowing at a decent clip since then.