Greg

Oh, I agree weatheafella. Posted just to make sure all the players are on the board, that's all. Let the model biases commence.

Maybe, but it's still has a 1037mb High but just retreats further north on this model.

Here is your 84 Hour NAM

It think you meant "stage right", but I totally agree. Very sharp turn once it gets close to us, how close is the question.

The 2016 storm was a very disappointing storm here. Pure Pixie dust with very little accumulation.

Need that jet stream to just sharpen up a little more.

As I alluded to earlier. If you take a look at the sounding for let's say Lowell, MA based strictly on the Euro, 0.7" of liquid verbatim would translate to about 11". Not a forecast by any means but just giving people a heads up. Not everybody will have these types of ratios either. The more you get to the far South Coast, Cape and Islands the more normal 10-1 ratios you will find. Obviously, more quantity but less fluff if you will. All this of course pending the exact final track of this potential storm.

Well yes, there's that, and his measuring technique along with some stick slanting involved.

This doesn't look right. Take a closer look at the quantity of liquid for Lowell, MA. Now look at the Snowfall. Generally 0.7" DOES NOT = 7.0" of snow with that old airmass.

I promise you will not hit 24".

That's not a huge hit. Huge is when the min is a double digit. Example: 10"+. Under is not.

Time of year/climo, Water temps, and BL issues.

The GFS still makes me queasy but even Boston Mets seem to think the Euro may have a better grasp of the potential situation. That being said, It overall, as many have already alluded to, once this thing goes off the coast it will hit a "Brick Wall" of cold. Usually I like my high pressure center to the north/northwest of New England Draining cold air in (More Classic) than a high pressure situated north/northeast of here, draining the cold air down. This explains very well the abrupt right hook the storm center takes to the east/northeast instead of just classically northeastward.

Watch now how the model changes again at 6Z.

James, trust me... this is NOT an 18-24 Hour storm. It's pretty progressive in the flow.

We should focus on Mondays situation first then put all our energy into the Thursday potential.

I don't see this storm going over 15 hours for us here in Eastern Southern New England.

I was looking through the "KU" book carefully. One "weak" but potential storm analog is the December 10-13 1960 Northeaster (La Nina Winter). Again a weak analog. However, in the "Near Misses" section, there are a couple that come close. Need to be closer to the potential event before even I can narrow this down to anything similar in this potential set-up.

Rays thoughts are correct. The only question right now since it's 4-5 Days out is how close or how far off shore this main surface low tracks. We all know the drill. Clown maps are fun to look at but we'll all see what the reality is on the ground Thursday in our neck of the woods. However, it is nice to see the heart of our viewing area in the crosshairs for this potential snow event.

Not sure about east being so bad. Here in Wilmington I picked up about 5.0" from the October 30th storm and 2.5" from the December 5th storm. Total so far 7.5. Not bad as far as I'm concerned.

No Ray, we've talked about this. I went to the pumping stations in north Wilmington. The man showed me the book. 32" for storm, 37" on Ground. No 6 hour measurements back then. Hell, both Burlington, Ma and North Andover came in with 30". Again no 6 hour measurements back then. north

IF RAY measures 32" then '78 is in trouble here.

It was a 2 center storm not 1. The one that he talked about was nearly 400 miles out but the closer one was just outside the benchmark.

Oh, I have power my man, hope you do to. Not sure if it's quite 30" but 27-29" maybe the upper bounds. We'll see what the finals are but what a storm. I thought these totals would be around Plymouth, Brockton, Taunton. Not reversed.