Cobalt

checks out.

La Ninas of years past have produced eerily similar fails. Folks might remember that one mid Feb 2021 threat (also February 12th I think?) that had two waves to it. Guidance converged on both waves producing a flush hit from 100+hrs out and I think even the Euro within hour 70 had a widespread 6-12". However, the same 1st wave weak second wave too strong thing happened. It is excessively difficult to put stock in these multi-wave solutions when there is so much give and take to how the guidance places emphasis on either phase of the thing.

Just gotta wait a few weeks my friend. Mid February onwards looks cold and snowy!

Should bring pause to whenever a qg_omega or snowman type person comes out of the gate predicting warmth. Are they making a knowledge-based call in accordance to guidance, analogs, etc, or are they betting on persistence giving them an easy win? It's not rocket science to bet on AN each year, they'll be right 8/10 times nowadays. It's the 2/10 where their true character and intentions come to light.

Wonder whatever happened to this guy

Seems like censorship to me.

always cool when the abbreviated name of a state can also explain what happened with the snowstorm

Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there.

Quick table that illustrates how rare warning level niña snows are in DC. Below is every instance in the 21st century. Anything 7"+ would be the biggest such snow in nearly two decades, and a total exceeding 9.3" would be the biggest since Jan '96.

that cutter pattern you predicted for the next 2 weeks could help with that

Quite a change in your tune from just a few days ago.. what happened?

lol it casually sped up the pattern progression by 100 hours or so

Here comes the record warmth you've been talking about for the past month!! Brace for impact!!

So close!! it's actually the coldest start in the East since at least 2010 ❤️❤️

Notable 5 poster thinks this h5 pattern will produce a record warm start to December for the CONUS

We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy

he's not wrong though? You certainly wouldn't have shared a Judah Cohen tweet touting a high snow cover ranking,

Looks like that anomaly will be wiped out by a major warm spell that's progged to persist into November, one that'll cement this month as a top 5 warm October nationwide

Which will be the warmest 30 year normals of our lifetimes until.. the next 30 year averages

There is zero accountability in the climate denial/downplaying space. I have yet to see a CC downplayer apologize for wrongly claiming global temperatures had peaked with the "1998-2012 temperature pause", or for using the Antarctic sea ice peak in 2014-15 to tout the "more ice than ever" headline.

I'm falling victim to greenskeeper's one gimmick but I would pay money for a worded explanation of each weenie reaction. The Chesco mention of the highest sea ice to-date since 2009 didn't warrant a weenie, but the opposite example does? We need a synopsis on greenskeeper weenie methodology

Where's that one post by Chesco touting the "highest sea ice to-date in 15 years" stat back in January? That has aged poorly.

What's the source for this?

What did he say about sea ice this past Spring?