JoMo

Springfield bumped amounts up to 3-5" most areas, 1-3" across far S MO.

Temps will probably be a bit colder than the 10:1 standard ratio, especially the farther north you go. It looks interesting for maybe a couple of inches where the snow does fall. Better chances KS/MO of course.

Interesting to see Wichita mention 3-6" of snow possible due to the Arctic air this weekend.

12z Euro with the stronger band in E KS and W MO this run. North of me. Closes the low off briefly by hour 84 over E AR.

Not overly excited again. There looks to be a narrow deformation type band to the north of wherever the upper low temporarily closes off. The system is still too positive tilted to really sling snow back in the cold air.

You guys keep jinxing it. You got to let it sneak up on you, or you'll scare it away!

yeah, models are trash, but it's generally climatology in El Nino years that favor good periods from late Jan through Mid-March or so in this area.

Late Jan and Feb/March will pick up. This is El-Nino climatology.

An interesting 'backdoor' type snowfall where the cold air comes from the east of the area.

To add to the above post by StormChazer: This storm doesn't have a connection to the northern stream, the flow is of Pacific origin behind it, so areas have to rely on the 'stale' cold air that's already in place which will gradually warm.

Models have been awful this year (and last). I haven't even looked at the weeklies the last few runs because the general pattern change keeps getting pushed back. I'm starting to believe the saying "A watched pot never boils"

Looks like a sloppy mess that will melt off quickly, but it'll probably be pretty coming down for some people.

12z Euro still interesting with that system.

Merry Christmas everyone. Too bad the Grinch stole our snow. Maybe next year!

Most of this is probably sleet in OK/AR but good old PGFS:

12z PGFS was pretty icy and snowy for parts of the area.

What an utterly ugly 12z Euro EPS today.

Euro has a nice -EPO showing up towards Christmas. Actually starts building in about 10 days. But... also a -PNA showing up. It would be awful to dump all the cold air in the west. Hopefully that changes.

yeah that system is going to be a pain. A narrow area of very heavy snow would be possible assuming everything comes together just right. Unfortunate that the cold air will largely be bottled up to the north and it will depend on system dynamics to produce that small area.

hehehe. Christmas morning just to see how much it changes:

1. Computer models can give an idea of any threat in the area. The eventual track and what happens isn't known that far out though. I mean, there's still a storm in the area, it's just not going as predicted by earlier model runs. 2. The NAM is trash. It's always been trash. 3. Interesting point. 4. lol 5. Winter weather in the south is very reliant on everything going right. The timing of everything has to be more perfect than points farther north. Not having one ingredient there, or one thing timed right means no snow. 6. I didn't take this one to heart quite as much, probably due to being burned in the past, plus I've already seen snow before Christmas so there wasn't the panic to get snow. There will be other chances.

Yeah. It wasn't that great, lol

Weeklies continue to improve around/just after Christmas. Below normal temps from the end of Dec all the way to the end of the run on Jan 19th or so. -EPO signal there as the trough retrogrades from Alaska.

11th? Not good? There might be a system around the 14th or so in your area. We'll see. You can see what happened to this threat, lol

12z Euro is a horrible mixed marginal mess in OK/AR.