greendave

nervous anticipation in the "Burlington bullseye" nothing new here ya'll don't know- CAD always hangs tight here and overperforms - crazy gradient b/t my location ~2miles north of I-40 - and say SE side of Graham - never fails. I will say - the track of this system is different than i ever recall, and as such the modeling of p-type changeover is extremely different in that there doesn't seem to be a "pocket" that hangs on - its a swift straight-line transition moving from SSE to NNW in a line from the SC border all the way to the VA border. We'll see. Generator ready, gas tanks full, 10gauge 100ft cord arriving tomorrow. Did i mention we have a TON of old oaks 'round here? Hopefully sleet saves us - but flashbacks to Feb 2014 when we lost power for 6 days.

FWIW - the referenced storm dropped 10" in Burlington and definitely overperformed most forecasts. reel it in.

So - it started on a NW track out of Whitsett - but turned almost due east once it hit Williamson Ave. It crossed University Dr. but didn't go up it. This all leads me to the other part of my observation and story. I believe (and yes I know its Preliminary) that the NWS damage survey missed the duration of the tornado. I witnessed the larger broad rotation, and heard it, well east of Williamson Dr. and have groundtruthed damage as far east as Rockwood Dr (near Turrentine Middle School) - i have not looked farther east than that. I'm attaching groundtruth points of damage to mostly downed trees - some impacting structures. The damage was strangely sporadic - never a noticeable path of limbs snapped in a line or path. Starting with the flipped daycare van @ Hwy 70 and WIlliamson - it was a tree here or there, some shingle/gutter damage intermittent, then nothing, then another large Oak, then 5 large trees all within a 500yd circumference - then nothing.. I suspect the tornado was on the ground twice as long if not more, than the preliminary report. For those familiar with Burlington -after crossing Williamson Ave. the tornado turned due east and impacted the areas b/t Hwy 70 (S. Church St.) and Edgewood Ave. My residence is within the blue circle - and witnessed the rotation, intense burst of constant lightning for ~2mins, followed by a white wall of what i feared had turned into a larger wedge tornado. Thankfully the rotation that dropped to the ground was small and fairly weak as indicated by the video taken along S. Church St and passed roughly 0.5mi south of me. Yellow dots are rough locations of groundtruthed damage.

I can't believe i just said this in regards to putting Pre-emergent down.... "I'm gonna keep an eye on soil temps, but going to hold out as long as I can until we get a solid chance of rain." At least we're behind schedule on soil temp avgs....

We got really close to issues here on the NW side of Burlington. But sitting at 33.8 and rapid melting - unless the overnight precip overperforms - should be issue free. Photo is from noon which is right when temps rose above 32.

Burlington looks to be a "sweet" spot - generator unboxed, fueled and ready (purchased 2 weeks ago - due mostly in part to this forum and the expertise - so thanks), new chainsaw chain and bar oil purchased, steak and pork chops and libations procured, 12gal. of ethanol free on the ready. Ya'll be safe and on the ready. 2014 event had power out for 4 days, 2003 reported 7-10 day outage, what will this one hold? A soggy winter with 3.5" in MBY the last 5 days doesn't bode well for root balls on old Oaks that's for sure.

31.6 / 31.1 - will be watching like a hawk - maybe that generator purchase (for next week's (non) storm) wasn't such a bad idea....

I'm in Burlington - and not very visible but you can hear the ice in the tops of the trees - I confirmed very little ice on front porch vinyl railing - but nothing on leaves, wood, metal (oddly enough) - but as we lose daylight - just a matter of time.

Tim Buckley @TimBuckleyWX The next two weeks are going to be bad. Lots of clouds, lots of rain, lots of cold, lots of icy / wintry threats, lots of grumpy people because we’re not getting perfect postcard snow. Can it be spring yet?

I've been on the fence about a generator for quite some time now - today's the day. BTW - I mostly avoid Harbor Freight - but I was told their return policy is as easy as it gets - buy the extended warranty: best case keep it in the box unless needed (no warranty needed), worst case if it ever fails- drain fuel/oil - exchange at store no questions, and buy the extended warranty on that one. I will say - their Predator line unbeknownst to me are powered by Briggs&Stratton produced engines. I'd rather have peace of mind than an empty shelf come "go time"

The last one - photo is dated 3/18/14. - It was an overnight 3/17-3/18 storm if memory serves me.

Last major ice storms in Alamance Co were back-to-back 1st and 3rd week of March 2014. Power was out for a few days with the first one, don't recall for the 2nd.

In Burlington (1 mi ESE of Elon) - started seeing snow mixing @ 430pm. But it stayed very mixed with sleet until ~5:30pm. 5:30-7:45pm huge fluffy snow but marginal temps - struggled to have 1/2" at most to show for it. Mixing back now w/ sleet and maybe rain, big fluffies gone.

Nailed it. Sleet intensified for 30 mins. Flakes just started mixing in right @ 4:30pm. 1mi. ESE Elon.

what's going on at the Durham/Alamance/Person/Caswell lines in terms of radar echoes blossoming - pivoting back through Alamance Co. and eastern Guilford - are we seeing the deformation setting up here?

Hopeful it switches over here in Alamance Co shortly. Nothing to write home about but have seen slightly heavier echoes this afternoon compared to bone dry all night through 9:15am.

I also heard flurries as far south as Snow Camp in Alamance Co. - so yes - some hope - but its marginal at best.....the flakes are very few and far between but we're going on almost an hour now and still seeing a few here in Burlington.

flurries in Burlington, NC

In Burlington, 1.5mi ESE of Elon and looks like we'll settle out at 2.5"

made the call to leave Crossroads/Cary @ 2pm. rain/snow mix all the way out 64 to Pittsboro and up hwy87. Turned all snow in Saxapahaw @ 3pm and ground is white - mod. snow falling as I stare over my laptop out the window of Haw River Farmhouse Ales - work hard. play hard.

Debra Morgan definitely said "personnel matter", Fish's statement said "personal issues" FWIW....

Agree 100%. I live in Burlington and I've seen the transition line setup so many times quite literally in a line from just south of Graham and over towards Mebane and Efland more times than not. And to the point of not grouping us with RDU. Yesterday I left RDU for home and witnessed a 7degree temp drop and arrived to snow/graupel flurries.