Newman

Updated Day 2 outlook, 15% wind, 15% hail (new to this outlook), 2% tornado.

Day 2 Slight risk

Worcester's 1.7" of rainfall this month would put it 6th currently as the driest May on record. Will see what the remainder of the week brings. Average is ~4.2" for reference. No where near record in 2015. Hartford's 1.6" this month also gives that station a shot at a top 10 driest May on record.

Looking at monthly rainfall, much of the central PA regions have seen a below normal month. Average is generally around 3.5-4.0" for most. Williamsport: Harrisburg: And then there's Altoona which is on pace for the driest May on record! Only 1.15" have been recorded there this month. We'll see what the remainder of the week brings.

The core of the ridge is centered to our north, likely why the NE region is seeing warmer temps. So even though we are in a southerly flow, the source region and placement of the ridge is not ideal for 90s+. Not to mention we have a cutoff low around the southern plains. Ideally I'd imagine we'd want warm anomalies to advect from that region into ours. Instead, we have cooler temps (compared to normal) in that region.

18/10/4

Could definitely use the rain. Since May 8th much of the surrounding areas have only seen around 0.1-0.2" of rain. So we're gonna end up going 2 weeks of an almost completely dry period.

So Philly has only recorded 0.7" of precip this May. Looking at future guidance, it's fairly possible Philly could end up with only around 1-1.2" of precip for the entire month of May if the drier guidance verifies. There's a long way to go obviously. But nevertheless, the average for May is ~3.6" and it's very likely we'll end up over 2" below for the month of May. In case you're interested, the record minimum is 0.47" in 1964 (Record Max is 7.41" in 1948). To break the top 10 for driest May's ever, we'd have to finish with less than 1.28" (2005). So we've got a fighting shot I guess.

Thanks for that. And yeah it'll be interesting, latest Euro paints only around 0.2-0.3" entering May 29th. Verbatim, with 3 days left, could be within the 4th-6th lowest ever May range. Long ways to go though.

Currently only ~0.8" of precip has been recorded this May at Newark, and looking at future guidance it's possible Newark could end up with only around 1" of precip in the entire month of May 2020 if the drier guidance verifies. The average for the month of May is around 4" for reference. Now, I don't expect 1" to be a record, but it got me thinking: What's the record minimum amount of precip ever recorded at Newark for the Month of May?

Virtually 0" of rain the next 10 days on the Euro. Could have a pretty decent dry period coming up.

Despite prior forecasts from a couple days ago, the week is going to turn out mainly dry. Temps around 65-75 and an easterly wind should keep things pleasant.

Low was 30.6, Currently nearing 40F. Maybe some squalls later today.

37 here. The Temp dropped like a rock from 46 to 38 but ever since the precip lightened up so did the temperature drop.

Snow flurries mixing in as this thing pulls out. May 8th, 2020. Snow is in the air.

One thing the models do agree on is the cold air available with this system. 850mb temps are around -10C and as the low pulls offshore and away from the region, wrap around precipitation will be likely to occur. With such cold temperatures it is more likely that a change over to snow or a mix of rain/snow showers will occur. Light accumulations may occur in the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, possibly even down into portions of the Lehigh Valley.

So..... Edit: I'm posting the snow map because why not, its freakin May and even a trace of snow is rare/historic this time of year

Lol

Wind is much much stronger than i was expecting, any inversion seems insignificant right now with gusts much stronger than any of our previous wind events. Strong jet up above clearly doing its work.

Just a breezy shower here, you guys further east should have a chance at doing better. At least I got a nice pic:

Although the cold air aloft argues at least a chance of small hail, even in the non-severe storms. Won't be severe level hail, but peas and dimes certainly possible. Idk, extended range looks awful with all the rain chances with limited/none severe chances. Maybe we change things around in May and the heat finally comes.

Yep, the radar looks like crap. Morning showers helping to stabilize everything as always. But even so, the setup was always riding a fine edge. Low CAPE environments don't typically produce well around here unless you're into the garden variety 30mph breezy frontal passage showers.

Squall line still on for tomorrow, localized damaging winds the highest threat. Small hail possible too with the healthy cold pool developing above us. Lapse rates should be decent tomorrow as a result.

Gusty squall line possible Tuesday