Newman

For fun

GFS actually shifted a bit SE with the heaviest totals with the storm occluding further south. So it moves ENE off the coast and then the precip shield pivots NW into New England. There most certainly would be a few heavy bands further to the NW than what the GFS is showing though. In the end though, noise changes. Steady and no signs of a GFS cave yet

If it nails this storm, I vote to retire it immediately. Send it off into the sunset on one last high note

I'm wrong, GFS is a huge nuke to much of SE PA and the I-95 corridor.

Yep I'm expecting the GFS to shift east here and align more with the other models with a coastal hit. Like I said in a post earlier, this feels like a Delaware and coastal Jersey storm. We'll see what the GFS says here...

ICON with a significant shift NW as well. Again, not fully to the tuck and stall solution but the shifts we needed are becoming real on every single piece of guidance

Verbatim that backside vort is slower so it helps to tilt that PVA running out ahead up and into the coast, but it's not fast enough to phase and create a GFS type solution yet. Huge shift that way though.

That backside vort actually adds angular momentum to the trough to give it the "boost" it needs and tilts it up the coast. NAM is verbatim a huge Delmarva crusher

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it's looking great right now at hr60. At the very least, going to be a significant improvement from 12z and 18z. Trough is turning neutral over Tennessee and much more amplified. Just need to get that final backside trough energy to phase in...

I think that huge shift west on the Euro is the step we needed for a true convergence/compromise on the models. I'm still thinking a mostly SE of I-95 hit with coastal Jersey and Delmarva taking the brunt of it. Areas to the NW will see some snow, potentially most of it from the IVT. There will unfortunately be a screw zone most likely. However, we could still see additional ticks west (or east) on all guidance and really any solution is still fair game. Ensemble probabilities tell me that, if I was from Delaware up along coastal Jersey right now, I'd be feeling okay. TBH, gut feeling is that something like the 18z AIFS is closest to the actual solution. But with how atrocious these models have been, it's hard to lean one way or the other.

Holy shit, I took a break and come back to a partial, maybe full cave to the GFS on the Euro suites?? I wasn't going to stay up for 0z tonight but here we are

Honestly the Euro isn't that far off, it's 6-12 hours too late on phasing with that southern energy that the GFS does. Everything else looks great, we just need that southern vort ejecting out of the Rockies to continue to tick slower. It's really all phase/no phase related.

12z GFS is a huge hit. I'm laughing because it seems like every other model (so far) at 12z turned more unfavorable and now the GFS double downs At the very least, it's entertainment.

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it looks absolutely nothing like the GFS and Euro with regards to the confluence over New England. Also much slower.

Let's get these 12z runs rocking and rolling. Just a few more ticks with the Euro trough consolidation/orientation and the coastal folks are happy. Just something to work with is what I'd hope for. I think the AIFS is a happy medium and reasonable solution right now. A plowable snow along the coast is looking more likely now, at the least. My family is flying down to see me in Tallahassee tomorrow morning, supposed to fly back Monday morning back into Philly... We'll see if that ends up happening but I'm leaning towards a day cancellation

It was definitely improved though. I think we'll ultimately end up meeting in the middle between the GFS and Euro with a modest coastal scraper. Maybe the IVT gives some surprises for those inland.

At the upper levels, the 6z Euro continues to make big leaps towards a more consolidated trough like the GFS. I know the surface may not reflect these changes yet (outside of the IVT), but it's getting there. The difference between the GFS and Euro right now is the GFS tilts that trough neutral through the Ohio Valley and the Euro keeps it positive 6-12 hours longer.

That's also just a product of the poor airmass we have ahead of the system. It wouldn't shock me if places started as rain, especially along the coast, before the system gets wound up. Assuming this system does impact, of course.

GEFS continues to tick better. Gets the 0.5" QPF line just SE of Philly

Just for fun

6z GFS is the best run since the Canadian a few days ago. Wow! Tucks it right into the delmarva

These are excellent trends on the last 4 GEFS runs. We need to continue to see these ticks or at least a hold over the next day or two. A big thing is that ULL off the West Coast which needs to keep backing up off the coast to allow the downstream ridge to back west as well. More spacing between our 50/50 and East Coast trough too is a good look.

I mean, even as is, much of SE PA gets a light 1-3" snow from the H5 pass on the Euro. I don't think there's a single model that is a complete whiff.

Last 4 run trend of the GEFS. Look at the western ridge, it continues to get more stout and back up further west. That'll allow our energy to dive into the country further west and allow more time for amplification. There's also more separation in general between the 50/50 and our coastal system.

The RGEM (and therefore the CMC) at 18z, and the GFS at 18z, both made additional improvements at H5. I swear the Euro will probably be down in the Bahamas in about an hour