Scarlet Pimpernel

I guess that means cute, furry bunnies would be safe as well?

Personally, I think the performers coming out dressed in Puritan-like outfits or something from the Victorian era would have been great! Like back in the day when they thought the waltz was scandalous because you had to *touch* (gasp!) your partner and hold them close. Fetch my fainting couch...and where are the smelling salts!! (I think it was Winston Churchill who said something like dancing is the vertical expression of the horizontal urge??). (Yes, that was all meant to be sarcastic!).

I can see it now...Reaper, Jr. "Hey Son, time to learn the family business. I take bitter, sad weenie souls and bring them peace when it doesn't snow. Here, you need some practice. Let's try someone easy for you first...hmmmm, let's see what you can do with Ji!" By the time he's grown up, imagine the kinds of gif images and other animation that might be available at that time!! Make sure he (or she!) is up on the hospitality side too, if your new fancy Panic Room suites are to keep going!!

Nice change to your avatar there! Buying yourself some nice Cubans with all the cash you've made on the new Panic Room suites, ballroom, casino, and bar, I see??

Yup, sarcasm and snark fully intended on my post up there! Thanks for appreciating it! But yeah, it is annoying to see a bunch of new posts in the model/long range thread only to realize 99% of them are banter-like complaining. There definitely is no putting lipstick on the pig that is our current winter situation! Can we at least make bacon from that pig (mmmm, baaaacon!)??

Happy February to all!! Let's keep this thread clean and on topic, sticking only to model discussions and anything relevant to that or to climatology. Mods, please move any banter over to the main medium range thread where it belongs...thanks!!

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.

You know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said. PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!). And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout. But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better. Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average. It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing. It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge! Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful. I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying. From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!"). The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us. Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose. But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not. I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen. So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February. We'll see.

Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch. I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!! (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!).

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month. (And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

"Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!!

Couple of things I can think of, just looking at that surface plot. The coastal low is too far inland (and the high to the north looks pushed too far away to the north). Also, note the extension of low pressure into the WV panhandle/southeast OH/southwest PA. That would imply a primary that's too far north, thus enabling more warm air to get in before the coastal can take over. Again, that's just based on looking at the surface, having not seen the corresponding Euro 500 hPa. ETA: Ninja'd by @psuhoffman and @jaydreb!

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times! I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February. OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event. But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS). The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier. Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel. Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond. Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows. But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!

Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago.