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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after. Not totally sure why. I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections. Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on. I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range.
  2. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Thanks...yeah, Zwyts sounds correct and familiar from that time. I thought he changed his name to @Deck Pic though...not sure. At any rate, I definitely recall his comments about the March 2015 event.
  3. Scarlet Pimpernel
    The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous. First, it's 200+ hours out! Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after. The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this. Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length. And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on! The one I remember best was March 5, 2015. That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm. In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning. And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)!
  4. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Maybe it was something soon after that, the thing that ended right at 384h, where PSU and others said it was an absolutely near-perfect setup, etc., but that the GFS "found" the one way to make it fail!
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Cynicism comes with age and experience, my friend...embrace it!!! Some people just call it "realism!" LOL!!! Agree, it most definitely was.
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th? The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Very true...bonus for sure. Just a couple of days ago, this was essentially not worth the time.
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel
    850 zero line looks OK, but man, that surface freezing line! Still, not that bad a place to be at this point for an event that's kind of a "bonus".
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel
    So basically...like the Ghostbusters car...it needs everything!
  10. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Nobody from another forum is allowed to mess with or troll us!!
  11. Scarlet Pimpernel
    I'd think it should be? Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches? I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution.
  12. Scarlet Pimpernel
    For what it's worth, I pretty much agree with what you said, and you didn't say it in such a way as to be an overt deb. As for the person (ahem...Ji) that you replied to...and I may get hammered for saying this, but who cares. I find it incredibly rich and ironic that someone who is arguably one of the worst and most immature weenieish posters on this site would call out others for the content of their posts! Sorry but yeah, I went there. So be it.
  13. Scarlet Pimpernel
    @Kmlwx, this is an EXCELLENT post, I couldn't have said it any better than you have...thank you! I'm more or less the same. Yeah, I'll post in here, add some (hopefully!) useful input or at least humor when appropriate. But I also many times just "lurk" and read what the experts say. Or I'll post observations during an event. You mentioned hobbies...photography has become one of my biggest over the past 10+ years, and I really like it, no matter the weather. I'm always finding that my eye catches something interesting and I'll think "ohhh, I need to get a shot of that!" or whatever (and if only I had the correct lens attached at the right time, too!! Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't!). And I certainly will take plenty of snow photos during events, if anything to document them. But honestly, spring and fall around here offer some of the best photography opportunities, with things blooming in the spring or the changing leaves in the fall...or birds, any time of the year. This past November when the Japanese maples over in the Audubon nature center nearby me busted out in all their amazing red, orange, and yellow color...I was beside myself walking around taking any shot I could (I felt almost like the character Po, in "Kung Fu Panda", when he was in the hall of warriors museum going berserk at all the artifacts!). Foxes...funny you mention that! I recently (last few years or so) have seen more encroaching on what are nominally populated areas. In fact, a few years back I was out taking photos during some snow event and saw a fox coming sort of toward me. At first I thought, "who has their dog running around here without a leash???" then realized it was a fox! It just ran on right past me (within a few feet or so), paying no heed of my presence, kind of scared me to be honest. I didn't have a chance to get my camera out from under my coat to grab a shot of him, but it was pretty neat (if scary!).
  14. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Yeah...now gimme a nice wave underneath that and some good moisture overrunning, please!!
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel
    ...Dafuq just happened????!!!! I wasn't even paying much attention and then I see this, LOL!!! PSU slightly fringed, right where we want it! ETA: Yeah, the thermals look whacked-out and meh...but whatever! Interesting it keeps the low south of us. I'm guessing that low in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes kinda messes things up.
  16. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Well, as the great Yogi Berra said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." He would have made a great meteorologist, if he took a different career path!! And we don't "need" this winter to "work", whatever that exactly means. I get where you're coming from, the past several years have been rough for anyone who loves snow, with a few exceptions on some events. That said, the longer range ensembles and weeklies have been consistently showing what is one of the best patterns we could ask for, according to @psuhoffman one that only occurs every decade or whatever. And every major model has been in lock-step with the same exact look for some time, it's remarkable. Let's just hope we can maximize what we can out of that, whatever we get. It's not a "guarantee" (I know you know this already), but just try to focus on tracking individual events if and when they start appearing as we get into ops range more. Try not to put this so much into the larger context and worrying about things like that. Take what we get for what it is, whether we get. I feel like I'm going all @Bob Chill zen-meister here, but you get the idea. Personally, I just cannot get all worked up if we don't get X inches of snow because the long term trends, etc. I'd be liable to not enjoy a HECS or a couple of really good MECS events if I worried too much about that!
  17. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Replying to this in Banter so that I don't end up cluttering things, LOL!! Anyhow, I agree with you. As you say, parroting things that someone else passed along is fine to an extent (I do it too!). But one shouldn't try to make it sound like they're all-knowing about what they are repeating. And, one should always credit the person/people who made whatever comment and assessment, if you know...or at least mention generically that some others stated such-and-such. Guess it's the scientist in me, I've been ingrained (rightfully so!) with giving credit where appropriate and not to come off like you originated it if you didn't. Even on something relatively minor like a weather forum. And yeah...I don't give two sh*ts about next winter right at this point. Sure, it is likely to be a Nina according to several others who've commented on that in here, and will (from what I understand) be pretty blah. OK, fine. But it's like 10+ months away for God's sake! Can't we just take this winter for what it is, hope we score something really good in this upcoming pattern, and worry about next winter another time? And as I mentioned in the main medium range thread, even in a crap year we can still manage to luck into something...that's far from out of the realm of possibility. I somehow doubt it will be wall-to-wall suckiness with nothing. Again, though, even if it is...why freak out about that now? I guess I've gotten a bit more "zen" after last year, which quite literally WAS wall-to-wall suckiness with zip to even track or get interested in.
  18. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Let's not worry about next winter or cancel it just yet. Sure, maybe it will be a sh*t winter...but what happens if we have one week in, say, January and score a lucky 12"+ event? I wouldn't complain so much, even if the rest of the season sucks. We rely on a lot of luck in these parts and have gotten such events in crappy seasons before. ETA: I don't remember a huge amount of winter 2005-06, other than it sucked for the most part. But mid-February 2006 we got that one great event, it wasn't as big down this way (much bigger up toward NJ, etc.), but it was still great. It was warm before that and like 70 degrees a few days after. We got one good period, that's all it took, to get at least something.
  19. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Exactly these points. I'll add that there's nothing "significant" about apparently not getting a MECS/HECS the last week or so of February. Any more than it was "significant" that we previously didn't have one the 3rd week of January, and there was similar talk at that time in 2016 I recall. We're talking a small sample of "big storms" here anyhow, and a discrete one week period. Not like it can't snow at that time. Trying to draw inference about "that week" is a bit much, it's not some voodoo magic (Jobu!!) that keeps us from such an event at that particular time.
  20. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Good to see you posting as always, Bob! Anyhow to your question I'll go by what I remember from 2009-2010. There was of course the big storm on Dec. 18-19, a couple of weeks after our "Dec. 5 snow" (that seemed to be a thing). We then got washed out the rest of the month more or less. January 2010 I recall starting off cold with some clipper-type system, before we had a thaw for much of the month (but not a torch per se). I don't know when exactly that big round of blocking came back, but in the week or so leading up to the two February HECS events, we did have the cold blast and the 6" cold powder on Jan. 30 (that storm inched north after looking like nothing here)...then an event on Groundhog Day (5" in my yard), but by then everyone was focused on the big one that occurred a few days later. So I don't know how dry it was specifically (though I have some sense Jan. 2010 was dryish overall??); we did kind of luck out with Jan. 30, that could just as easily have been "cold and dry" (and it looked like it for awhile). But at least it shows how we could still score a neat event even in something that nominally looked suppressed.
  21. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Easier to just place Astroturf out there, it stays short so that you're guaranteed total grass coverage when it snows!
  22. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Now THAT would be quite the challenge for @Jebman and his famed, trusty shovel! I bet those are his footprints around that house, scoping out the best way to begin digging out!!
  23. Scarlet Pimpernel
    Some of these comments (especially by those who should know better) are getting to be a real snooze-fest in this thread. Put that crap in Banter or the Panic Room. Sure, the "big snow" forecasts might not materialize in reality but can't we just let things evolve and see where things go? Rather than go "OMG, if we don't get X number of inches this year everything is doomed for years!" Even if we get a couple of solid storms and/or a HECS-level event.
  24. Scarlet Pimpernel
    True. Though the period around the 18-19th would not actually be the first wave? Unless I misinterpret what you mean. Seems that around the 14th would be the so-called "first wave chance" which would be pretty borderline at best around these parts, though some others may score something from that.
  25. Scarlet Pimpernel
    @psuhoffman posting 20 day Euro control snow maps in the medium range thread, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria, and it's Groundhog Day!
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