Scarlet Pimpernel

LOL, is it sucking you back in?? I've about given up much caring about this where I'm at, but yeah, now I suddenly feel a spark of re-interest!

I admit to not knowing all the nuances of the MJO, though do know the "warm" and "cold" phases...and don't know how much the ENSO state alters that. But I have noticed what you're saying here in the past few years. I can't remember which winter it was recently, but I definitely recall where the MJO was supposed to go into the favorable 8-1-2 phases, and at ridiculously high amplitude. There was a good bit of talk about how that would turn things around and lots of hope, blah blah blah...and in the end, not much changed. I'm not saying that the MJO is useless or unimportant by any means, but I just don't know how much of a role it plays or how it modulates depending on various states (ENSO, blocking, etc.). ETA: I have noticed that when things look like shit, there's all kinds of attention paid to the MJO as well as the state of the stratospheric vortex and whether it will be disrupted, etc. When things are doing fine, you don't hear anything about those, or very little.

I know, right?! As if there's some magic to whether or not one is issued. Same with blizzard warnings, I swear some people almost seem upset when one is not issued during a major storm and we "only" have a winter storm warning. FFS, people, you get 15" snow and think less of it due to not meeting the technicality of "blizzard!" (ETA... And yeah a watch is issued when the potential exists to meet warning-criteria snow over an area, and will be refined later. Not a guarantee you'll get that!)

Thanks for this description, PSU...couldn't have said it better myself...spot on! I know this particular person tends to diss models quite often, and to a point I get that. People can mis-use them or take some output too much at face value. However, as you say, they ARE guidance, not forecasts. Well, perhaps more precisely, each model is a forecast SIMULATION of what the atmosphere would do given a suitable set of initial conditions and the model's own programmed physics and thermodynamics. It will never be perfect...at least not anytime soon!...because our ability to perfectly model the atmosphere is limited, though it has dramatically improved over the decades. Even the initial conditions themselves are subject to errors or limitations, being on a discrete grid (plus observation measurement errors, etc.). I also get a little miffed at this person's occasional statements that ensembles essentially throw out "every possible solution." Or something to that effect. Ensembles DO NOT do this, nor are they intended to do so. They are intended to provide probabilistic information and uncertainty, WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THAT MODEL'S PHYSICS. Obviously there are certain assumptions, such as for a given ensemble suite of a particular base model (GFS, Euro, etc.), each member in that suite has equally likely outcome. Based on that and other theoretical considerations, this is why the use of the ensemble mean for many parameters (e.g., 500 mb heights) is considered to be the best estimate of an outcome in the medium to longer range. Or why it's good to look at solution clusters. The ops of a particular model is essentially just a high res ensemble member when you're looking at that time frame. Which is obviously why it's annoying for people to toss out a crappy looking 300+ hour GFS deterministic forecast just to make some point about how we suck or whatever. I know this is very simplified and general, what I said here, but you get the idea.

There is some pretty serious cold behind that avocado as the cutter passes, to be sure. Both at the surface and 850 mb.

@psuhoffman, this is a very interesting potential, even if it's not quite so likely at this point. I'm talking your 2nd one, where the trailing wave is actually "the" one. Haven't we seen this either occur before, or looked like it could happen but was too little too late for our area? The scenario sounds a bit familiar from previous events in the past. So it doesn't seem all that wild to keep in mind.

Sounds like the 'Noles during the UGA-FSU game from this weekend!

See, technically you didn't state what you decided to stop drinking. So it's all good!!!

Whelp...on to February and March then!!!

Yeah, but make sure you don't slant-mow!! That's cheating!

My assessment of the 12Z model suite today...

Maybe "debunked" wasn't the correct term...what I meant was, the amount of data "sampled" isn't much different nowadays for any given model cycle. Reading what you say here, however, I realize you meant the data itself will be different (of course) as you move closer-in. I can get that...and sorry if I was a bit harsh in my comment, but there's always this "thing" that different model cycles are "better or worse" due to how much data that was input to them.

Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing (@dtk??) sort of debunked some time ago? As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP. That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z. Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling."

LOL!!! Well, it's not the "jinxes", it's the same cadre of people who freak out when things look less favorable after they see a couple of runs that looked great. And sadly, some of those who "freak out" are the more knowledgeable ones, not that they tear hair out and whine like some others, but discussion gets slanted in a doom-and-gloom manner (and yes, talk of "trends!!!"). I'm certainly not one who wants to put my fingers in my ears and cry "lalalala, I can't hear you!" when there's not so good news, but we also don't need incessant repeating "look how all this is wrong!" with every model run that "suddenly" isn't as favorable.

Yup, that was discussed...and yup, the freak-outs are regular as clockwork!! People went ga-ga over a couple of runs that gave the DC metro area a foot (admittedly, I got excited too of course!). And you know, we could well "fail" at least I-95 east. But even with a "fail" for that area, I still think nearly all of us see some snow, and not just the less than an inch "surprise" we got back in December. I think we get on the board with decent amounts, and by decent I mean a couple of inches or so. Won't be perfect and temperatures aren't the best, but whatever. A few days ago we were all looking at rain. Of course, those farther west should score pretty big almost regardless of any solution.

Interesting discussion on all the "old" history of this site and its predecessors. I recall first finding this when it was Eastern US Weather Forums, in January or February 2009. Strangely, prior to that I was looking at the Accu-Weather forums just to see some discussion but it was a bit jumbled with the organization and didn't like it so much. Someone on there had a link or a reference to Eastern, so I checked it out and was hooked since! I didn't join at that time, just read to get information. The first "real" storm I remember following on Eastern was the early March 2009 event (if anyone else recalls that?), actually staying up late through that weekend reading GFS and Euro discussions! There wasn't as much talk of ensembles at the time. I then officially joined Eastern sometime later in 2009, in time for the amazing winter that year!! Then it got transferred to American Weather Forums I think around January 2011? So anyone who had an account on Eastern could "re-start" on AmWX. Oh and on a different topic...I know people joke (sort of) about the weekend rule and snowstorms around here! Total chance I'm sure that a decent majority tend to occur at that point in a week. But if you think of it, and if you consider a "weekend" to be Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon (I'm allowing for a day either side, for Monday holidays and for storms that may start just before and continue through the weekend)...that's 4 of 7 days. So just statistically, you should have storms that tend to occur in that time range!

Thank you, Red!

Not to get too far off-topic (but we're not in storm mode or anything yet!)...but yeah, they are large birds!! And you can hear their call quite clearly and far away (very distinctive). They don't seem to mind people just sitting there watching them even fairly close. I'd say I was a few yards down from this tree looking up at him, and was using a 500mm lens when I took that. I literally took a dozen or so shots at different angles, and saved the better ones (some were blurry because his head was moving too fast).

OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever. But how about a pileated woodpecker? Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos. You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside. I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm. Well, not really, but it sounds good!

Better be careful, that's close to pushing @ravensrule's bat signal right there! He's already answered a couple of inadvertent ones earlier in this thread! But seriously, yes, hoping the 18Z GFS keeps this thing going. We're going to see things move around back and forth (with attendant mood swings in here every blasted model cycle!), but it would be nice to keep this storm there and alive.

Better than shitting the blinds, that's for sure!!

Since I have some family members who went to Michigan (and I was one of about 3 people in my HS in Ohio who rooted for them in the UM/OSU game each year!!)...GO BLUE!!! I'd kinda like to see a UM-Wash final, or at least any final without 'Bama in it (always have been "ABB"...Anybody But 'Bama!!). Anyone think that if the winner of the CFP is one of the teams with a loss, that there'd be a TON of "unofficial" discussion about whether UGA should actually be #1? I say this as NO fan of UGA, but consider this: Georgia had that insane win vs. FSU in the Orange Bowl (albeit against an essentially 3rd string Noles team) and they lost by just 3 points in their conference championship to Alabama. Other than the Alabama game, they were dominant this season, really. Regardless, it certainly makes next year's expanded playoff all the more welcoming!

Happy New Year all! Let's hope we can pull in an area-wide solid event this upcoming weekend. It's been far too long since we could actually track something realistic and more than a car-topper. I put this in the medium-range thread at midnight last night, so re-posting here in Banter!! Trading Places...still a hilarious movie!!!

Merry New Year 2024!!!

Just going by memory here, but Commutageddon as I recall was a much more dynamic system (i.e., 500 mb). Rain changed to sleet/ice...literally like chunks of ice falling from the sky for awhile!...and then to heavy snow. Lasted about 5 or so hours (8" snow in that time where I am). (ETA: There was some snow that fell in the early morning too, I seem to remember?)