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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    I'm anxiously awaiting @MAG5035's afternoon update where he's going to explain how the northern tier gets snow in the next couple of days followed by the southern tier on Saturday night/Sunday AM. :) 

    Hopefully the Euro is leading the way with the trailing vort coming through Saturday night. 

    I've been pretty busy the last couple days, I'll be able to update on things a bit more later on this eve. For the Friday potential there's still some support for a potential changeover in the central counties that still needs resolved. There's a lot of low pressure waves running this boundary and I think the last one Friday can happen if the frontal boundary is able to progress eastward enough. The NAM seems to be the only operational guidance showing much with that (back in the JST-AOO-UNV-IPT corridor), with the 12z GEFS showing a stripe of snowfall over that and more of C-PA into the Sus Valley. GEFS is probably too optimistic on cold pressing in that well, but a NAM type solution can't be discounted. 

    For this wave over the weekend, I'll be interested to see how the thermal boundary recovers behind all the late week storminess. 12z Euro and ensembles have a WV/MD/NOVA/DC focus with this wave today. Still okay for the south central and southern tier of PA.  GFS has it more in PA but not as robust. I think this will be a viable threat once we get closer into range but I'd be really surprised if this took a bigger swing south of us than over us. We haven't been able to keep a northern branch low under us all year. 

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  2. 9 minutes ago, canderson said:

    This is incredibly depressing. 

    Yea, the only teleconnection going for us right now in the longer range is EPO being progged to flip negative to some degree. That would generally be a good development for the eastern US in terms of winter as the negative phase (ridging into AK) typically will shut off zonal flow directly from the Pac and allow cold air to intrude into the US from western Canada. With a continued -PNA and a hyper positive NAO/AO progged, that would definitely suggest that we're going to continue to deal with limited press south of cold air and issues with storm track being too far north or northwest. The EPO is a significant driver, but I dunno if it's going to overcome such a strong state of the NAO/AO if that came to fruition. The Euro and it's ensembles was the guidance with off the charts + but all other models and ensembles still had a significant positive state progged. Some stuff is starting to take MJO back out into phase 4-5 too as well. We're going to need to see some improvement in these indexes going forward for sure.

    With that said, one has to realize looking at those teleconnection forecasts that the dominant +NAO/AO sets in mainly AFTER this coming week, where it is looking like we're going to be dealing with P-type issues at various times in some or all of C-PA as well the potential for a lot of precip between these different waves set to run along the boundary. 

  3. WAA band ended up being a 1.0" fluff bomb this morning. That band must have had good lift in the zone snow growth wise, as snow itself appeared to be aggregated dendrites. Already starting to melt as the marginal surface temps are making this look like something you'd see on April 2 vs Feb 2. 

    1.2" total on the day, which finally gets me over the 10" mark on the season. 40" to go to get to average lol. 

    • Haha 1
  4. 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    @MAG5035

    Any snow out your way currently?

    What are your thoughts for snow possibilities in your area & the Susquehanna Valley?

    Yea it is snowing here with a light dusting on the ground and some heavier stuff about to move through. I'm sure something will survive over the mountains, and there might be some warm advection precip generated overnight into tomorrow before the warmer air moves in later tomorrow. This stuff moving through now might get eaten up off the mountains though. 

  5. I'm taking a 9.6" total for the winter into February with the largest snowfall being 2.1". Going back to 2000, the only worse start to date was 06-07. Other horrendous winters of note in that time frame.. 01-02, 11-12, and 15-16 all had January warning level snowfall events here.. with 01-02 and 15-16 having double digit ones. Pretty special level of bad so far lol. 

  6. 12z Euro had a boatload of freezing rain with that second(ish) wave of low pressure late week and even some frozen at the end of the first wave and the start of the second. A press of cold air is becoming evident with a high sliding to the north on the models mid-week. How much of a press of cold will obviously determine what kind of p-type issues we have along with the track of the second low pressure wave, which would appear to be the primary event for widespread winter weather potential. 12z GFS relatively on it's own so far for the 12z model cycle tracking the low up the coast, as ensemble guidance seems to be currently more supportive of the low track the Euro and Canadian take with this. All have varying degrees of mixing. I know the Euro has shown what the 12z GFS has in a couple previous runs the last few days. A more progressive solution in a progressive themed winter certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility, and that would help us in that scenario. 

    There's going to be a lot to resolve the next few days. 

  7. I was pretty busy yesterday and this morning and am now starting to look into things again going forward and man was I having trouble finding something positive today. The renewed +AO surge had a lot of spread in the guidance the other day but looking at it today shows a pronounced return to the magnitude we saw in the first half of January, along with a surge back to a more solidly +NAO. Don't have to go much further into it to point out how the longer range of the models have responded to that, taking away what had been looking to be finally a more sustained period of cold weather. It's not that the cold isn't around.. it just isn't able to stick for more than a couple days at any kind of significant (-) anomaly... and it also makes us vulnerable to a high northern branch and/or cutter regime, depending on how much the PNA/EPO screws us up too. Certainly looking like a lot more of a challenge to go on a run of winter weather one could deem a "comeback". 

    With all that said, next week does bare some watching. There's going to be a clash of temps on the frontal boundary and what appears to be a couple different waves to potentially run it. Not far off from a wintry mix/ice scenario with the first wave of precip mid week as cold temps bleed back down south at the surface with a somewhat modest high crossing north. Some guidance gets the mix into portions of C-PA. Then there's a second wave late week that runs up. GFS/Canadian run it up west of the mountains and the new Euro runs it up the coast, providing a swath of snow up through the middle of the state. So we'll have to watch how that evolves over the weekend and while we enjoy the run of warmth early next week. Sus Valley looks good for at least a couple days of 55-60, but far southern could certainly do better. I don't think we're going to see an all out heat wave, but all of us should see 50s and up for 2-3 days.

    Sidenote: I've finally decided to give WeatherBell a try as I've wanted access to its better and more extensive ensemble products among other things, instead of say waiting to see someone post ensemble maps (usually in the Mid-Atl with the DC centered map) for instance. So I'm armed with all that now.  

     

  8. 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    One tell tale sign I have seen that I feel is fairly rare but not unheard of...there is not one area of frozen water anywhere in the parts of PA I travel.   Not even in the Upper Elevation State Parks across S Central PA.

    The Great Lakes are pretty much wide open too. Ice coverage is at a measly 5.6%, which isn't completely unheard of this time of the year but certainly a strong indicator that this winter has had a lack of any sustained cold in the Eastern US and Great Lakes Region. If we do eventually see an actual dead of winter grade cold shot sometime next month there is going to be some major lake snows for folks underneath the favored flow off the lakes. 

  9. 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

     

    That's what something like this will get you. And that chart was just high temperatures too, I'd like to see what the low temperatures looked like.. especially during the warm spell.

    total_obs.thumb.gif.21ec2198345201d390b9cfcd8e3d6ebd.gif

     

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  10. 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging.  Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more.  Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term.  Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years.  That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner.

     

    edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky".   

    Not sure if your lumping in the Mid-Atlantic folks but there hasn't been anyone in this subforum that has called this event DOA, including myself who's been pretty pessimistic on this storm threat the last couple days. I'm not going to sugarcoat a setup that doesn't look that ideal, but I'm also not ruling out seeing enough of a tug north to get something into the southern parts of the area. The northern branch wave progged behind the departing coastal may also deliver light snows, something I mentioned on Monday. The Euro has been a bit more amplified with that feature and the 0z threw a large swath of 1-2" across PA from that. 

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  11. Still too much progression and positive tilted alignment for my liking with this upcoming storm. The western ridge is pressed east/flattened and it limits the northern branch's ability to dig down and pull this up in time. GFS/Euro bury a lot of energy into Mexico, while the 12z Canadian didn't and offered the most coherent attempt at some interaction..thus being the closest of the bunch at 12z.  CTP had a decent discussion about this in their long term this morning.

     

    Quote
    
    .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
    Still watching potential for weekend storminess, although
    consensus of operational models takes a flatter wave out to sea
    south of the region, sparing PA from a big storm. This is a
    critical upper air pattern, however, and east coast storminess
    is largely dependent upon the strength of the upper trof coming
    onshore into British Columbia on Wednesday, cresting/flattening
    the western NOAM upper ridge and then digging southward through
    the Great Basin and Four corners region while additional
    shortwaves eject into the northern Plains. Degree of phasing
    between northern and southern stream is highly suspect in this
    pattern, and the extent of Gulf Coast convection Thu night into
    Friday may very well determine how close to the coast the sfc
    low deepens Friday and whether PA gets into any precip on the
    northern edge of the storm system. For now, it appears to be a
    miss, but will continue to watch closely. The arrival of a
    positively- tilted trough into the northeast Saturday night
    through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick- but
    insignificant-snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for
    a 24 to 36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic
    coast, northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds appear
    likely to start the first full week in February.

     

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  12. 3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

    I just cruised the Upstate NY subforum earlier and that place is sad. The only thing I'm really taking from this shitfest is that everyone on the east coast has attended. 

    Margusity seems to think a coastal is possible this weekend. PennLive appears to be punting on winter. 

    https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2020/01/will-the-polar-vortex-make-an-appearance-in-whats-left-of-winter.html

     

    Btw, that article mentions that it's not impossible that March and April, which has been winter lately,  will be cold.

    I think the coastal is going to happen but as I posted last night I don't like the pattern alignment and the lesser amount of amplification that's being advertised now with regards to getting whatever magnitude of coastal storm close enough to us. There is some hints of some northern branch energy dropping down enough for perhaps lighter snows behind the exiting coastal and before heights rebound for what looks like a more above average few day period getting into the 1st week of Feb. Something like that might favor the western part of the state though.

    I wouldn't write off February, especially after the first week. The long range has been really building a major ridge in the NAO realm as well as finally driving some + heights over the pole (improving AO) and improving the Pac/west coast some. I'm certainly aware of the "always 10-15 days away" theme this winter but the more wholesale change to a colder regime in the east had been also advertised by some of the longer range stuff like the Euro weeklies and CFS as well. We can still flip things around and there's been worse first halves of winter. 2006-2007 was pretty much dead on arrival til about the week of the V-day '07 storm. I think LSV places like York and Lancaster didn't even record measurable snowfall til like the first week of Feb that winter. 

    At any rate we have to relax the AO if we're going to get a colder regime that actually sticks for more than a couple days. I think the very positive AO regime that developed at the end of Dec and lasted all this month has had the biggest overall influence on our sensible weather here. We can do okay with snow and cold in this region without the negative NAO but the +AO, especially at the magnitude it had been at, is hard to deal with. The strong PV over the pole locks up the arctic air, making cold air intrusions quick and also really raising the latitude of the northern branch. We haven't had a single clipper this year drop down anywhere near our latitude. I feel it's rearing it's ugly head again this week to a degree with the northern branch not amplifying enough to pick up the southern wave.. although the +EPO is also a detriment keeping things progressive and the source region of air Pacific. That PennLive article actually had a couple decent sources, referencing Judah Cohen at AER. He provides a weekly update and discussion on the state of the polar vortex and the AO HERE. The last discussion was Jan 20th, so an update is probably due today or tomorrow. 

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  13. Today's 12z Euro pretty much kept the northern and southern stream shortwaves separate, while the GFS is more amplified and interacts the two streams.. drawing more of an event toward the Northeast US. On the 18z GFS the interaction does generate an area of lighter snows crossing the state despite a weaker, more progressive coastal that's tracking a bit east of ideal for our area. Neither seem as amplified as a couple days ago when they were running significant lows right up the eastern seaboard. The overall 500mb alignment of the western ridge/downstream trough looks very positively oriented. Thus, I'm not particularly enthused with this becoming a big coastal (or developing into one in time for us) at the moment. With that said...there's definitely plenty of time as we have all week to see how things change, and there isn't much agreement or continuity on the models right now. 

  14. CTP did acknowledge next weekend in the long term this afternoon.

    Quote
    
    The operational ECMWF and GFS models are hinting at a potential
    winter storm to impact the Eastern U.S. to kick of the month of
    February around Groundhog Day. This would be the third weekend
    in a row that the region faces a significant storm threat. This
    far out, there is a wide range of possibilities with the track,
    intensity and timing [details] of the storm which are very
    likely to change in the coming days. So just a heads-up for now
    and will continue to monitor.

     

  15. 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    There you go.  Jim Cantore with the high hair and I looked at MDT's 92 totals before sending that post but did not go out past that.  Had just never heard anyone says Blizzard of 92 but my sometimes unfortunate LSV shaded glasses may have blinded me.   I did make a post for the benefit of our Williamsport friends today so I am not always selfish.

     

     

    Nah your not being selfish haha, I thought it was a good opportunity to bust out the vintage TWC coverage. 

    • Haha 1
  16. 3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Blizzard92?  It must have been one of those "technical a blizzard but only 2" of snow" blizzards or he lived somewhere else in 92.

     

    It would be interesting to hear some climate theories on why the 60's were so snowy.  Having random snowy years is just random but to have them consecutive like that would suggest something caused it.

    Lol, well it was probably wasn't as memorable for most of the LSV but there was major nor-easter in Dec '92 that dumped similar snowfall amounts to the 93 superstorm in the interior. I think 50+ of UNV's 92" that season came just from those two events. Back when this part of the state used to see 20"+ snowstorms. 

     

  17. Def a decent signal for a storm in that D8 or so timeframe, as models set up a nice western ridge for a change and it appears to be a time of amplification overall in the pattern over the CONUS. The Euro's southern wave kinda gets buried initially and seems like a later interaction with the northern stream, causing what it had at 12z. GFS and and Euro control had earlier phasing and thus cut the low too far west. Going to come down to timing of shortwaves, position/amplitude of the western ridge, and amount of phasing. There's a lot of different shortwaves running around in that time period on the models, so there could be some wound up solutions showing up (like yesterdays 954 on the GFS) if there's a clean phase. So yea, the potential is there. That's all the further I'm going into it for now. After how this week went for what ultimately is ending up a rainer for everyone inbound tonight and tomorrow I'm on a prove it to me basis for anything that doesn't actually cut west of us. 

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