MAG5035

Snowing in pretty much all of PA at 96, light along the NY border, moderate-heavy for the rest. Precip extent looks a little better than 12z.

The analog list is beyond incredible

 

Wow talk about a who's who list of big storms lol. Aside from the obvious 1/8/96, 2/6/10, and 3/3/94, and 2/12/83...... 12/11/92 and 3/3/94 were prolific 24-30"+ storms within the commonwealth as well (more for interior PA).

If you take a look at 700 mb on the UKMET, Canadian, GFS and Euro OP...they all have a trailing connection the down to the Caribbean event as the storm is winding up off Delmarva and cranking out to sea.  That's a hallmark of a big one.

Another hallmark is the 850mb zonal wind anomalies are a tremendous -6 to -8 standard deviations per the Euro (GFS is similar too). That kind of an easterly fetch off of the Atlantic alone would add solid support to the very high snow amounts that have been being put out on the models. I think Feb 4-6, 2010 had something to the tune of -4 to -6. Crazy.

Well, the extreme southern Sus Valley and SE PA up to Allentown might get some moderate snow with light snow maybe getting further up into NE PA , but tonight's 0z Euro looks to be about a complete miss for the rest of the C-PA region. Looks more progressive and the storm gets captured further east. Ends up winding up the low fairly close to the coast but CCB is pretty tight this go around. Ends up looking more like last nights 0z Euro. 

So far through 96 hr the Euro's coming out faster and a bit weaker than the 12z run and the 0z GFS.

are snowfall to liquid ratios available?

At Hour 138 there's a strip of -5 to -10 ºC 850 temps that drop into eastern Penn coinciding with the monster CCB. I would say def better than 10-1 during that timeframe but regardless I have no words for that GFS run. This mornings Euro parallel, todays 12z Euro, and this 0z GFS monstrosity have gotta be the most insane computer model runs I've ever seen. 

It might be in our region or it might not be but something big's gonna go down, even if this system doesn't get captured and stall we're still probably looking at a significant albeit maybe not historic snowstorm since this should be a moisture laden system with it's Gulf and Atlantic moisture sources.

I was just looking at the wind anomalies from today's 12z Euro. The 850mb U-wind anomalies (negative implies anomalous easterly flow) are off the charts... -5 to -7 st deviations in the eastern half of PA at the height. That's crazy. 

I only have this for a few more days so here take a look at the clown map.

Man that's a large swath of PA in 16"+. When's the last time Washington,PA was in a bullseye with 27"? Lol

I could also add that there's a region of -8ºC  850 temps in south central PA that's around during the height of this too, so ratios could def be higher than 10-1. One step at a time though. 

0.25-0.50 for all with 0.50+ 80S at 144.

Your neck of the woods is getting hammered at 150 and 156, two 6 hr periods of 0.25-0.50" and your close to a small 0.5+ max both times.

Precip into the SW 1/4 of PA at 126hr and most of PA at 132hr. Pretty heavy snow south of I-80 at 138hr and southern half of the state still getting hammered at 144hr. Northern mainly moderate snow. For the Pit gang you guys are def involved with this too. 

12z Euro is going to put some big numbers up in the southern half of the state, wow.

Thx Mag.  As your staring and glaring at the pic....focus on the grey area and tell me what what the Para is doing to the CPA crew.....

 

 

Dare I say that pic prob give some of folks "woodies"

 

(sorry....I couldnt resist)

 

Nut

I was so busy being a   looking at my county in 36-40" that I didn't even notice the actual  haha. 

GFS has a somewhat decent hit for PA but it's still def the more progressive model (big surprise) and not quite as heavy with the precip as last night and weaker with the low. The Euro capture and cutoff is what turns this from what probably would be your usual sizeable moisture laden Miller A to something ridiculous. Looks like the Canadian has more of a Miller B look (in the right spot for C-PA to capitalize) with a transfer to a deep coastal that hugs the coast.

One thing to worry about somewhat if models go more for a Miller B is p-types of course if we end up with a primary west of the mountains that drives up more. Although the overall pattern could suggest that might not happen, there's no anchored 500 ridge in the west.  Instead, the ridge progresses along with both the Euro and GFS except the 0z Euro of course phases and cuts the storm off. I think the progression could help push the storm and keep the low under us... although not enough phasing could also push the thing too far under us too. Lots to sort out this week. 

A lot of forums including both of ours would be happy with that solution. Wish it was tomorrow.

Definitely hones in from I-95 up through Central PA with some intense meso totals near 3 feet in the above mentioned spots. CCB gets cranking on that run. Too bad it's Day 6. 

I'd be estatic just with getting half of those amounts the way this winter has been going haha. But definitely gotta keep perspective and a level head as we have a long week of hashing this event out and I'm sure there will be ups and downs as always. I will say the potential for a big one is there IF everything comes together at the right time. This is the kind of opportunity I've been waiting to see this winter if it comes to fruition, a major coastal on a charged southern jet with available cold air and the warm SST's off the Eastern Seaboard especially near the Gulf stream.

Holy @&^!

Holy @&^! indeed, wow. KAOO for the win with 37" on the || Euro lol. That's gotta be about the biggest slam job i've ever seen for C-PA at any range.

(Taken from MA thread)

Was a nice run Mag. Now take it home. I'm heading to bed lol

Lol definitely nice to see something interesting even if it is still out there range wise, I was going to post a snow map grab from the Mid-Atlantic thread but I don't want our northerners (Hazelton, wmsptwx, etc) all riled up yet considering this is still a day 6-8 thing haha. 

Still precip lingering in the LSV through 168.. Euro bombs the system out (984 mb offshore of Ocean City, MD) and ends up slower than the GFS. Looks like a good Sus Valley hit, but really a good I-95 hit from NYC south. 

All of the 95 corridor from DC-Boston still getting hammered at 174 and Philly-Boston at 180.

In short, I think the Euro just gave the Mid-Atlantic and I-95 weenies an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary. 

Euro at 126hr so far is further south and weaker than the GFS is... but the system is def there. GFS has 1004mb centered on about Nashville and Euro has a broader 1010ish low centered on roughly central Alabama. 

138 hr - 1008 on the central GA/SC border with precip to the mason dixon line. Snowing in most of western/central VA and arriving into DC

144 hr - Broad 1008mb centered on the Carolina coastline, precip (snow) into PA up through JST/AOO/MDT

150hr - Light to moderate snow south of I-80... heavier precip near the mason-dixon

156hr - Light to moderate snow hanging in the LSV below I-80

Glad to see were all up waiting for the 2am run of the Euro. Are MAG and MillVille awake yet?

I'm here and watching. I'll try to give a Euro play by play here shortly. GFS definitely came to play tonight, GGEM is a bit warm but looked like at least a front end snowfall ordeal and Miller B evolution. The GFS had this all out snowstorm a few days ago when it was in the 222-240ish range before kinda losing it and occasionally looking like the Euro with cutting the southern wave off and thus cutting off the cold air... although the Euro has been all over the place. 

Cautiously optimistic on it.. def a legit storm threat for that time frame. Just worried about enough cold air. It seems so far this year when we involve the southern stream we end up too warm. We should have an antecedent cold air mass in place this time so central PA should definitely be in the game. Hopefully we get it, cuz it's getting to that point of the winter that unless we have a good March like we did in 07.. it's going to be tough to even get to our average winter snowfall totals (esp interior stations like IPT/UNV/JST, etc) without a big hitter or two. But we're still in mid-January, so plenty of time yet. 

Have ended up with about an inch of fresh powder this evening from the area of snow that pushed in from western PA with it still snowing currently. High ratio snow as well, there was a couple good bursts with some nice sized aggregates. 

Models haven't looked all that great for this weekend affair as of late. PA seems to be stuck in between the Lakes low and the developing coastal as there has looked to be less interaction (phasing) between the two. This limits both timely cold air intrusion as well as precip in general in PA as the coastal low ends up weaker and further to the east. We could end up having some last minute comeback but I'm not sure we could get the Sus Valley involved given the marginal air mass. 

Things have settled down, 1.4" with the squall line...holy ****.

3.5" total so far

MAG are you near any of the lightning that is showing up with that line?

I thought I had caught a flash outside out of the corner of my eye a little bit ago, but heard no thunder.. so can't say that I had any thundersnow. It's definitely the kind of squall that will could have it though. Which lightning map were you looking at?

Grass is almost covered down here in Park Forest. Definitely the best event of the year so far 

 

Incoming squall still looks really nice on radar too.

It's here now, and its a good one. Pretty good winds and visibility down under 100 ft.

Well that didnt last very long.

Waiting on the line here, looks like you had a good day today. 

Euro says not so fast... it brings temps down due to low deepening earlier (further south) than GFS run... still would need things to come together properly but I wouldn't call DOA just yet.

i noticed the models starting to look a little better last night with throwing more weight on the coastal low's influence. As far as the 12z suite goes the Euro gets things cold quicker than the GFS. Either way temps are really marginal, this could initially favor elevations and interior PA if anybody. Euro did have several inches of snow in roughly the central third of PA. Both the GFS and Euro have a pretty significantly tilted 500 trough associated with this system, which is a plus for having a rapidly developing coastal and potentially an area of heavy precip rates (which could aid in a dynamic cooling scenario). 

Been in a bit of a lull here in between the initial snow and the squalls associated with the front with a few peaks of sun and temps that have risen to around freezing.

Measured 2.1" from this morning..gonna clear off and see how much falls this afternoon. 

A nice steady snow falling this morning, just measured a little over 1.5".