MAG5035

The two pronged nature of this system is going to provide two different areas of accumulating snow. What the south central and Sus Valley see's snow-wise will heavily depend on the front running wave of precipitation, and how much into PA it reaches (as well as rates/intensity). The models have been focusing that initial wave on the southern portions of the subforum (generally below I-80) and not so much in the northern tier. The main precip associated with the surface low passage will then involve the entire region, though warm advection aloft will introduce the mixing issues to at least the southern tier. The uncertainty that remains is where the second snow swath ends up being. Models pretty firm now on the surface low coming close but passing just south of PA... so while lack of a high to the north continues to be a sticking point for me, cold air at 925mb-surface should hold fairly well for most of the event (esp north of the turnpike). 0z and 6z Euro seems to be furthest south with the second swath of snow, getting places like IPT their 2-3" of snow as that particular models hangs the 850 0ºC line right through the middle of the state. GFS seems the most "black and white" (snow and rain) and fairly warm with not a lot of ice while the NAM has more widespread icing in central PA after the initial snow. Personally I think the NAM's P-type take seems the most plausible given the scenario. This should be an overall winter weather advisory type event on both the snow and ice aspect.

I think the south central counties (south of I-80, west of I-81)  have the best chance of getting the 2-3" snowfall that appears to be the mostly likely decent snowfall outcome of this. I'm worried that the front running wave fizzles some as it gets into the LSV, and folks there end up with lighter rates and have trouble getting an inch or so. And then, I'm also concerned about the advection aloft getting further north and mixing most of the northern tier when they finally see the precip from the main wave.. essentially providing the same scenario as the LSV with having trouble getting say, an inch out of this. We could also end up colder aloft as well too in the end, which could possibly make for a higher end advisory event if anyone saw mostly snow from both waves, but lack of high pressure to the north is a limiting factor for that potential outcome. 

Pretty healthy dose of pingers currently with a glaze of ice. Sure hope road crews were at least somewhat ready to deal with this stuff this morning because it could turn into a lot of problems real quick. 

25 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Is this looking like swfe or Miller B type deal?

Depends on the model, the Canadian was showing a Miller B type solution on it's 12z run today. The latest 0z run has that particular model tracking somewhat northwest of 12z, running the primary surface low right up the Ohio River. Some semblance of a eventual transfer but the solution is mixy/rainy in PA after a period of accumulating snow for most of our region. 

Models are generally similar with storm evolution, running a decent wave originating in the Lower Mississippi Valley tracking into the Ohio Valley on the approach to our region. So yea, I guess it does look to be more of a straight up SWFE over a miller B scenario. I'm not seeing much high pressure to the north being progged so in turn I'm not seeing this potential wave getting heavily forced to transfer to the coast. For the most part the biggest difference in the models is track right now. The GFS (surprisingly) continues to be on the NW envelope of guidance, running the low into the Lower Lakes, while the new Canadian tracks as mentioned up the Ohio River to SW PA and then starts an ambiguous looking transfer to the coast. Today's 12z Euro has the same evolution but is notably SE with the low track, running it out of the Lower MS Valley towards VA and the DelMarVA coast. The Canadian shifted north tonight so we'll see what the Euro does later. 

Even if the NW GFS track were to verify, the setup in place should be adequate enough for some wintry issues in our region on the front end at least. It's not the greatest look ever, obviously I would like to see a stronger high in place to the north. Even the 12z Euro's favorable track with not much high pressure to the north would probably introduce p-type issues to the Lower Sus Valley. Issues aside, this thing has a good chance at being our first region-wide frozen event (even if it ends up as rain at the end). 

Some surprise snow flying around this evening. And it's 28ºF so it's even sticking to the streets too for a change (dusting).

Most of the globals have generally showed this kicker system early next week behind the weekend storm.

Speaking of the weekend storm, some of the central counties may see initial mixing.. if it times a bit faster (say more on Friday). Mainly this is probably going to be another wasted opportunity. Cutters like the current storm are one thing, but a Gulf Low taking a just inside the coastline track but not having the available cold air in mid-Dec is a real bummer. Strong high over New England midweek quickly retreats in the progressive pattern ahead of that system, and the lack of western ridge and a pretty positive NAO (and AO) don't do any favors either. The result being a mostly wet coastal. 

My obvious concern for the following system potentially in the D7 or so range is for a trend toward another cutter. The positive NAO is forecast to neutralize getting toward that timeframe and we have a bit of a better look up top overall (Canada/northern latitudes), so we'll see if that remains more workable. A very active looking pattern the next 10 days either way. I think we still have a good chance of landing something in the region before the holiday.

With regards to the potential changeover tomorrow night into Wed, I'm not particularly enthused about it. I think you might need to be in the Laurel's or E and SE of MDT for the best chance of seeing any kind of actual accumulation, and even then I think the best our subforum might see is an inch or so. Most models not named the GFS seem to give the I-95 corridor more of the focus for something that could be of the advisory variety. Been starting to watch the HRRR on the major z times (0,6,12,18) that extends out to 36hr. It does bring another wave of precip up through PA later this morning, but the cold air isn't in yet. 

Awful nice rainstorm out there today, blah. 

I think the biggest issue the next 6-10 days is a bit of a progressive pattern and not much western ridging to be had.. keeping us vulnerable to cutters despite what looks to be a pretty decent cold shot behind the storm progged for early next week. Models are quite insistent on something fairly significant in that D8 realm. The problem is it appears the cold air is pretty well displaced from the eastern seaboard even in the 12z GFS case of having a coastal low run right up the coastline (no high in place either). There's a lot of time for that to evolve but that's where we're at with that currently.

NAO realm has shifted to postive as well, after the downstream blocking was a big factor in us very nearly being more directly in what was a blockbuster snowstorm not all that far away from our subforum at the beginning of the week. Such is how it goes a lot of times this early. At the moment, I don't see anything particularly detrimental pattern wise in the longer range to say we won't have chances...but there are some limitations to consider.

Finally getting the ground whitened up this evening with some of the lake effect making it off the Laurel's. This could have been a 2-3" type of day here between the several hours of steady light snow this afternoon and a relatively robust NW flow LES regime but temps in the mid 30s made for nothing to show for this afternoon. Temp is still in fact 34ºF at this hour so the snow falling currently isn't affecting paved surfaces. Took the 4 mile drive up to the top of Wopsy Mountain not too long ago.. 29ºF up there with snow and blowing snow. There's easily 4-5" up there (a lot of that from Sun/Mon) plus most of the ice storm ice remaining encasing the trees almost completely in white. Insane how fast it changes in just 3-4 miles.

Some steadier snow moving through, although surface temps are a bit warm and nothing accumulating currently. Some of the heavier returns coming might get some accums started. Lake effect regime sets in tonight which favors the NW and Laurels. 

Some of you guys in the LSV are beating me in the early going with snowfall haha. Despite the snowy/icy pics from where I was hunting 20 miles away and the completely ice encased and snowcovered Allegheny front a mere 4 miles away from here.. I only got about 0.2" at the house from Sun/Mon's major storm. I logged 0.7" in November so just shy of an inch on the season total. 

Speaking of the ice from Sun/Mon's storm, I snapped this pic in the woods yesterday morning.

Treestand ob is much different this morning than Saturday’s with a steady light snow falling and about 1.5” on the ground (with ice left over on the trees). This is Tussey ridge around 1700’ in NW Huntingdon County.

Back in Altoona from camp for a few hours. The area of precip I went through coming from Huntingdon County turned to snow and there's a light accumulation back in town. Ice was relatively minor today, mainly just on the ridgetops by the afternoon. Tomorrow looks interesting. 

Reporting from the tree stand haha

I get poor cell reception down at the camp so I’m a bit limited this weekend with updates. For the wintry mix/ice portion of this storm I have my usual position on CAD staying anchored better than modelled, and really most models have been consistently icy all week to begin with. There will definitely be some impacts region wide with the worst of the ice potential in the ice storm warned counties. More sleet further east and northeast may prevent warning level ice accrual but the mix will likely make things slippery.

The wildcard is the redeveloping coastal and upper level low swinging through. The biggest snow potential is in the Poconos (with the coastal) but the ULL passage could make for periods of snow getting towards Monday in C-PA. I thinking maybe 1-2” type potential with the ULL but any meso banding could spike snowfall in spots. Patchy snow could linger for awhile too

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good morning @MAG5035 , congrats on the snow!

Do you think that the solid deform band with heavy precipitation in southern PA will changeover to snow this morning?

Good to see a lot of folks in here scored/are scoring some snow this morning. I only had a couple tenths worth of snowfall here as the deform band set up probably about 20-30miles east of here early this morning. NWS State College reported 1.5" at the office and I'll be finding out here a little later if my hunting area on Tussey southeast of town ended up with more. 

Next focus for possible winter weather appears to be next weekend. Models have been progging a deep low developing into the northern plains, while a strong Canadian high sets up to our north. A pretty classic ice event look. Sometimes this setup with the parent low so far west can yield front end snowfall too but there doesn't seem to be a deep cold push behind Wednesday's system to be very sure on that. GFS has been more insistent on this scenario but I saw the Euro had that look as well last night. Def something to keep an eye on this week. First week of December looks cold behind this potential system. 

9 hours ago, pawatch said:

Weather World
@WeatherWorldPSU
 
A weather rarity this November in State College: This November (to date) is the 10th coldest on record. All other Novembers this cold or colder have had measurable snowfall by this point. But, just a trace this year. #ctpwx #pawx #psuwx #SnowlessInStateCollege
10:53 AM - 23 Nov 2019

 

Judging by the 511 cams around the State College area currently, it appears that UNV is going to have it's measurable snow. Several cams showing snow covered roads. This solid band of heavier precip in the central mountains region may end up warranting an advisory first thing this morning for a few counties.

All snow, and coming down decently. Working on a coating.

Changeover is starting to occur down here. Mostly sleet now. 

Some winter action to report on from nearby (4 miles up the road). The Allegheny front has some fairly notable ice accums ongoing.
 

Wopsy Rd@Skyline Dr above Altoona:

The way the pattern appears to be shaping up for the second half of the month is certainly favorable for a potential early season event(s). Considering the month we're talking about is still November, the progged establishment/stability of what is pretty much a winter-type pattern is notable. It's not a "one off" type thing where we briefly might line up things for a snow event and it's back to being 60ºF and above average in a few days. It's more of a seasonal temps at best (generally below average) with a fairly suppressed storm track that keeps the cold air close and provides realistic opportunities for early snows.

Going off some of today's runs (12 and 18z), GFS and Euro differ some in alignment in that D6-10 timeframe. The GFS seems more amplified with the western ridge and overall high height anomalies in the high latitudes (specifically Canada), providing a bit of a colder look and more suppression to the storm track. The Euro is flatter with the western ridge but more amplified with a Greenland ridge in the NAO realm. The flatter western ridge would imply a more zonal pattern that's a bit warmer (but still workable). I do think the more highly amped western ridge the GFS had provides the better potential. We'll see. 

Happy one year anniversary:

Pretty snow squally day around here, although the bare ground and earlier sun in between melted most light accums off. Glass table on the deck has about a half inch on it, so that's probably a fair representation of the running total for the day. 

It also didn't take long to pile up I-80 today in multiple places in Ohio and PA. 

The prospect of some potential snow in at least some of the region late in the week is certainly earlier than we generally see but it does occur in the early half of November from time to time. Let's briefly discuss what the models currently have progged next week in the form of a major shot of cold air. That is a whole other thing if that were to come to fruition. Euro and GFS send in sub 504 thicknesses which is quite anomalous for the dead of winter much less the Nov 13-15ish timeframe. We're talking highs not out of the 20s and single digits/ teens low temps depending on the region of PA and if there happens to be any snow on the ground anywhere.

Simply put, the D6-10 timeframe looks straight up wintry. If it indeed ends up being that cold or even close to that, one would hope we can score some kind of event out of it. Sans any kind of synoptic event, NW PA and the Laurel's would stand to benefit from a potentially favorable trajectory and ∆T's that figure to light up the lakes like a Christmas tree with a few days of -10 to -15ºC 850 air overhead. 

Edit to add, the Great Lakes temp map shows Lake Erie (by far the warmest lake by virtue of it also being the shallowest) largely in the upper 50s to near 60ºF or so as of Sunday Nov 3. I haven't looked over in the upstate NY thread much yet, but I'm sure the LES gurus are quite excited about the potential of that. So that's like a 20-30ºC ∆T between lake surface and 850mb (5k feet).

On 11/2/2019 at 3:38 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro today delivered on the snow threat for Thursday night into early Friday with a storm tracking to our southeast while cold high pressure is moving in to our north & west. I would take this solution & run !

 

Today's 12z run had a similar look with the wave and pressing cold high running a slug of moderate precip across the state albeit a bit warmer thermally... relegating most of the potential accumulating snows to the Laurel's and the northern tier generally above I-80. Doesn't appear that the low levels get cool in time in the south central and Sus Valley, with 925mb-surface temps lagging. It certainly could indicate an overall rain to snow type scenario for most though, just not notable accums once towards the Sus Valley . Either way, a major shot of cold coming behind the potential system. Canadian and ICON have this system and wave of precip positioned similarly while the GFS is way SE keeping PA completely dry. 

That's just the take on the models as they look currently but this system is certainly worth keeping an eye on (just in time for switching back to standard time). Timing of the system vs press of the cold air will be important. Given how early it is things will have to align just right, but this is an impressive cold airmass for early November on the playing field so something to the tune of our early event last November is quite possible. I'd personally rather see this type of cold pattern come to fruition in the latter half of November but it's good to see some potential action right off the get go.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the warm air is gone for good this year!

Great to hear it is snowing in PA !

And I can confirm a few flurries flying around in the wind here as well now. November looks to open up quite cold. 

NWS Pittsburgh reported it snowing at the office there (near the airport) within the last half hour which officially would go as a T. 10th Halloween with snow since 1890.

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Looks like down in Franklin County they have gusts up to 70, headed pretty much right at harrisburg. 

And moving at 50 mph. Like I says upthread, this is very similar to a Texas March setup.

Yea I think the LSV is more mixed out (evidenced by some gustier surface winds out ahead) and has a much better chance of seeing severe gusts mixed down with the leading line of storms.