MAG5035

Wed night-Thursday's system is still presenting a distinct heavy rain/flooding threat. The Euro has seemed to be the wettest/slowest operational model with this system, which is probably a fair assumption that wetter is probably the way to go given the strong southerly flow driving high PWATs and the overall pattern. NAM and GFS aren't quite as wet, and 12km NAM has a weak spot in the Sus Valley. The ensembles, GEFS/Canadian/Euro/SREF generally support the wetter Euro region wide. 

Still think the heavy rain portion of this event is going to come over a 3-6 hour period within the overall 18-24 hr duration of precip from later tomorrow-Thursday afternoon. That invites sharp rises on the waterways across the area as FFG is pretty low (especially in the central) and waterways are running a bit elevated. Another thing to watch is secondary development on/near the Mid-Atlantic coast, which may hang the heavy rain longer somewhere in Eastern PA.  WPC has Eastern PA in a slight risk on it's excessive rainfall outlook Thursday (Day 3).

GEFS guidance for the Sus River @ Harrisburg (NAEFS is similar)

21 hours ago, Voyager said:

And right on cue, when the storm moves out, the winds move in. While it's not as bad as past events, 45 degrees with a 20+ mph wind is chilly. I am SO OVER this pattern. Where is our late April/early May normal weather???

Man I don't want to be that guy, but the Euro has been doing it's best "year without a summer" impression lol. The overnight run wrecked Northern PA/Southern NY with another snowstorm (yesterday's 12z did pretty much the same thing) on May freaking 6th. This is the Euro we're talking about, and the fact that it's even showing something like this at this point in the spring season is downright remarkable. At this rate the southern tier NY/Catskills region might end up with a better "winter" MAM than DJF. There were some pretty significant snows up there from the weekend system. 

The weather isn't going to be wall to wall horrendous going into the first couple weeks of May, there will be nice weather and any sunny day will make things nice with the strong sun. But we're settled into an overall western ridge/eastern trough regime. Temperatures looks to remain below normal overall. The Euro is riding solo on the May 6th snowstorm but that period is showing an amplification in the eastern trough in that timeframe on modeling. 

1 day average 850mb temps on 0z Euro ensemble:

That's quite a solid signal for chilly weather. If I had gardening/planting/farming interests, I would be very wary of a high chance of seeing a late freeze(s) during the first half of May and be ready to deal with one. The good news in all of this? I would say by the time we transition to a warmer pattern that we'll be at a point in the spring where we won't be backtracking to weather like we're seeing now. 

Lol, well you Sus Valley folks that felt a little left out in the QPF department yesterday should be excited for Wed-Thursday. 

CTP has mentioned this particular threat in the long range portion of their discussion the last couple days and seem pretty keen on an elevated flooding risk with this. Deep southerly flow ahead of this system progged for the Lakes likely imply a rain event within which a 3-6 hour period of heavy rainfall with some imbedded convection could create some issues. 3 and 6 hr FFG values are in that 2-3" range in the LSV (more like 3" in the 6hr values). They're notable lower in the western counties in the CTP region (AOO/JST) as well as the northern tier. Timing and probably track still need resolved, as corridor of heaviest precip amounts could end up being more narrow. 

Also fun, I just saw Pittsburgh NWS post on their Facebook that based on this weeks forecasts right now Pittsburgh, Zanesville, and Morgantown will have recorded a lower max temp in April than in January... (70/73/71) vs (71/74/74). First time that would be recorded ever in their climate records. 

Definitely a wet/unsettled regime the next few days. That Sunday/Monday system looks like it's going to be another solid rain producer. Can't help but wonder about the what if, as the overnight models now all draw the low under PA to redevelop on the coast with a high anchored to the north. Here's hoping we're ready to rock come December, and not waste a cold pattern early during the first half of November for a change. At any rate, the potential is still there in the northern tier higher elevations of PA for a mix/changeover to snow later on in that system as the low goes to the coast.. as well as even the Laurel's on the very tail end. Pretty impressive that the prospect of such things is even on the table this late. It doesn't look like we're ready to come out of this below average/unsettled pattern through likely at least into the first week of May. When the 540 line is still clearing PA behind systems on May 1st (as in the case of the GFS), we're definitely not talking any kind of late spring/early summer warmth. 

18 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Let's have a presser on how much rainy days help to clean covid off shared outside surfaces. 

Lol, or just inject a lil Lysol and it'll fix us up in no time . Nope couldn't leave that one go. 

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Congrats!

What do you think of the snow chances for CTP that the Euro has been advertising?

Definitely a slim chance of happening even in the mountains, but the only other widespread notable snowfall that's occurred this late in western/central PA was back in 1928.. so that's to be expected. For this to have a chance this advertised system will have to transfer the low to the coast, preferably early enough to get a solid Delmarva low. That's what today's 12z Euro and previous runs of either that or the GFS has done the last few days when they've occasionally had the snowfall solution. The models have a high in position to the north, but generally they're keeping a primary up into PA or the Lakes. New Canadian does have a timely transfer to the coast decently south of PA, but just a bit too warm overall with maybe high Laurel's changing over. That model had a much stronger high. Very little ensemble support right now for the wintry side. New GEFS siding generally with GFS op maintaining a dominant primary west of PA. 18z Euro ensemble showed much more signs of a decent secondary low but no snowfall. 

Scrutinized the Canadian a bit more, since it showed a solution that in the actual season of winter would have equaled a major snowstorm for all of C-PA. 850 temps are there, 925 and surface are not. And that illustrates why it is so hard to actually get something this late. The deep easterly fetch directly into PA on that solution would equal a pile of snow in the dead of winter, but the low level easterly flow (at 925mb to the surface) is a detriment in this case with cooling the temps enough sans significant dynamic cooling. And the solar insolation this far into spring is going to warm surface temps even with cloud cover, esp lower elevations. 

3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Guys...I have refrained from all the virus discussion just so I can maintain my sanity.  I have an anxiety disorder (take meds) and I don't have to tell you that without my beloved gym 6 days/week as was my normal routine, it's becoming more challenging.  I'm commenting tonight because Governor Wolf just held his news conference where he laid out his plans for reopening the state.  IT'S NOT GOOD!  For us along and east of the Susquehanna, unless the positive case counts does an immediate about-face in the next few days there is no way our area will reopen at all on May 8th.  To be specific, he's doing it by county prevalence.  He says that any county must be at a level of 50 positive cases per 100,000 population count or under for 14 consecutive days before any relaxation of anything will commence!  I checked, the population of Cumberland county is roughly 200,000.  The positive cases today came in at 202.  That's easy math.  That's a ratio of 100 cases per 100,000 population count.  That means that our county is more than twice the level he has outlined in order to have any reopening of any businesses.  I haven't checked but I'd be willing to bet Lancaster county's ratio is worse than 2:1.  I am one of the lucky ones on here.  I retired 2 years ago and don't have a job to worry about.  My wife works from home full time in a job that is unaffected by the pandemic.  We sold our home last October and moved into an apartment in November.  We had planned on waiting until Feb or Mar to put the house up, but we changed our minds because of how hot the market was at the time.  Please don't take what I'm saying the wrong way.  I pray for all of you whose jobs/livelihoods have been horribly impacted.  I'm just fortunate to be a little older than most of you.  I'll continue to pray for all of us and for our own health for that matter.  I'm in an at-risk category being 60 and having asthma and a predisposition to bronchitis.  So, I pretty much do have to stay at home as much as I can.  But, I want my gym back!!!!!  By the way, it even looks like the first level of reopening from Gov Wolf does not include gyms.  Maybe by August before we reach level green?

Edit:>>I went ahead and did Lancaster county.  You don't want to know.  It's four times worse than Cumberland county.  Population is 545,000 and positive case count as of today (4/22) is 1,326 which gives a ratio of about four times worse than Cumberland county.  In decimal format we need a value of 0.0005 or less after you divide the positive cases by the population.  Cumberland is 0.001 (twice the threshold) and Lancaster is 0.0026 (four times the threshold).

It's a little bit confusing but I'm pretty sure these guidelines are talking about keeping a 14 day average of new cases below that 50 per 100,000 threshold. So for Cumberland County's estimated 253,370 people.. the 50 per 100,000 (0.0005) would come out to staying under 127 new cases in a 14 day period. Or in other words, they would have to average no more than about 9 new cases per day over the two weeks. Since Cumberland County as of today has only had 207 total cases for the whole span of this outbreak, you may be a lot closer to the threshold to relaxing guidelines than you think. 

Otherwise, how would a county whose total number of cases already exceeded infecting 50 per 100,000 people ever technically reach the guidelines to relax restrictions? PA doesn't keep track of who has recovered from this thing. 

Lol, mangled snow flakes mixed in with this early batch of precip.

Back to the flakes flying around again this afternoon. 

Quote

.CLIMATE...
Record-challenging cold is expected on Wednesday morning, April
22nd. Here are the daily records for all major sites:

Current Record Low (Year) Forecast
Harrisburg (MDT):31 F (1981) 33 F
Williamsport (IPT): 31 F (1981) 29 F*
Johnstown (JST): 30 F (2002)27 F*
Altoona (AOO): 26 F (1975) 29 F
Bradford (BFD): 20 F (1981) 22 F
State College: 23 F (1920,32) 28 F

*Indicates record-setting forecast.

Another fairly cool and unsettled week ahead, especially the front half of the week as we drop a potent shortwave in Tuesday night and attending 510dm low centers near VT/NH/ME. Those 500mb heights are on the order of 3-4 sigma below normal for this time of the year (highly anomalous). While that 500 low centers north of here, it's still going to make for cooler than normal temps and probably more mountain snow showers Tuesday night behind the front.

Extended still features a western ridge/eastern trough overall, so don't think we're going to bust into any kind of early summertime in the next couple weeks. Heck the 12z GFS wanted to do the whole northern PA snowstorm thing all over again on the 26th. It's on it's own with that, although I saw at least one run yesterday that looked like that. Moral of the story is more of the type of pattern we wanted to see in DJF lies ahead.  

Here's some second hand pics I saw on my F-book feed out of Clinton County, likely from early tonight. First one's at LHU in Lock Haven in southern Clinton and the second one looks like Rt 120 west somewhere between Lock Haven and Renovo in the western end of the county. 

CTP and BGM PNS statements had some 6"+ amounts in it. The west end of State College had 2-3" and Potter and Tioga counties had a couple 5-6" reports. CTP's statement was issued just before 11pm so some of those amounts in the far northern tier probably ended up higher.  Binghamton the city had a 7" report (Endicott) and 5.7" at their NWS office.

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm enjoying the pics so far. This time of year, snow looks so much better in SOMEONE ELSE'S backyard than my own...

I had been pretty content moving on from the bad winter and looking forward to warmer spring weather but the accumulating stuff missed me here by about 20 miles today and the alternative has been 35-37ºF moderate to heavy rain all afternoon/evening. I personally would've rathered the out of season 2-5" of concrete. 

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

State College has reported snow for the last 6 hours with 1 mile or less visibility, yet the point & click forecast just says Rain.

Are they looking out of their window up there at CTP headquarters? Lol...

Yea they probably should have added a tier of counties to the advisory as the I-80 corridor has been showing it on the ground all afternoon. State College had a little bit on the ground early before that heavy burst of precip moved in. PennDOT being pretty proactive and has I-80 Bellefonte to Dubois as well as I-99 from I-80 to Bellefonte under a 45mph restriction. Probably would've been a Friday evening debacle had there been regular traffic. 

21 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

2.25 on that chair and roughly 2" or so in other spots...but it just switched to rain / sleet

Lol that 2.25 is a bigger single snowfall than I had the entire winter. 

On the changeover yea the dual pol is really showing it now, and also how the UNV region is hanging on. There is actually accumulating snow starting to show on the overpasses on the I-99 cams all the way down to Port Matilda as well as a crash between Skytop and the Grays Woods exit near State College.

1 minute ago, 2001kx said:

It's was coming down pretty good for a while...I live about 3 miles from there as the crow flies.

How much do you have? It looked like the top of the mountain easily had advisory amounts.

Impressive, down to Clearfield's elevation with the snow on the road.

3 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Snowing much harder here now...bigger flakes.

Temp 33

 

Think it will stay all snow here?

It might, you certainly have a good chance of at least staying snow while the heaviest precip of the event is moving through right now. There is some signs of mixing in SW Clearfield county on the dual pol products but I think your pretty established in the snow. 

19 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

The rates have picked up and its now sticking much easier.

Looks like I-80 at the top of Rockton Mountain is starting to cave. 

Tryin to mix some wet flakes with this heavier precip pressing in.

I think the further south rain/snow line of the Euro ended up being most correct, as we do have some instances of snow on the ground below I-80 this afternoon. Just rain here, but State College has had snow and there is some on the ground on the 511 cams up there and ESE of there on top of Seven Mountains (Rt 322). I-80 from Milesburg west to the Ohio border has varying degrees of snow.  

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

So, I see that my subject change attempt a little earlier didn’t work...

Let me try again...

@MAG5035 ,what are your thoughts on the snow chance tomorrow for the CTP     I-80 crew tomorrow?

It's looking like the snow swath is going to reside above I-80 in the northern tier counties and up into the NY Southern tier. The low has edged north the last couple days just enough that it's going to take the best precip into central/northern PA and bump up the thermal boundary just enough to make a cold rain for most of us in here. Models are pretty dialed in on the northern tier, where it's probably going to be a pretty solid advisory event. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the high ground even cracks 6". Euro still has more of a dip south in the middle of the state, where UNV or IPT could see some snow esp on the front. I think front end snow in those places would depend on if more WAA broke out ahead but it looks like that would also be targeting the northern tier more. This was really close, if the low would've been able to stay under PA this probably could've snowed on the majority of us. The cold was/is there. 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

The criticism to your post is none of those are highly contagious and carried by asymptomatic people infected and killing others unknowingly. It’s not a choice if you catch a pandemic.

If this had run its course naturally the economic harm would be far more devastating imo. 

I agree, if we would have went about this business as usual we likely would have ended up in the same stay at home situation anyways with a whole lot more death and overwhelmed hospitals. I think PA has handled this fairly well to this point and we have stayed off the peak in daily cases several days ago and have limited the spread/expansion of the hot spots in the Philly/SE PA, Scranton/WB, and Pittsburgh metro regions of the state.

With that said, I do believe they need to start exploring what "non-essential" sectors they can start opening back up safely more seriously than just talking about it.. which was generally the goal of the legislation that worked through the PA house/senate. PA and MI are two of the bigger states with the highest percentage of UC claims (roughly 20% of the workforce). I think anywhere where one could lessen that tremendous burden on the state UC system by getting some people back to work where it is deemed safe would help with being able to assist other sectors of the workforce that this is going to affect for a good bit longer even with eventual easing of guidelines (travel/restaurants/entertainment/sports/etc). That's also not to mention the small business part of the equation where there still isn't anything in place in terms of UC for self employed individuals.  

It's been harped on for weeks that testing ability is a major key to getting things started back up and countries that implemented aggressive testing for this right off the bat have been ones that have been able to both handle cases/isolating people while keeping at least some functionality. So it's mind boggling to me that we're still at a point this far into this outbreak where in a lot of cases we can only test folks with more serious symptoms and that's it (and sometimes not even then depending on availability) when in the same breath there's evidence that a notable percentage of possible cases could be from asymptomatic carriers. That type of data is extremely vital to those model projections they use to determine where were at in the spread of the virus and what measures are taken. We've tested roughly about 1% of the population in the US, which is certainly not enough of a percentage to really have the big picture without a lot of assumptions. This is a more of a visualization than a direct comparison... but if we're putting this really roughly in weather terms, that would be sort of like trying to figure out the weather pattern in the US plotting out 1% of official weather stations around the country. You might get an overall picture but your going to miss alot of details. 

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Mid May could be doable, but probably on a limited basis. Theme parks, theaters, and any other large gathering places maybe not so much. I'm still afraid of opening up to soon and then having to shut it right back down again because the virus came back with a vengeance...

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sounds like Trump is going to recommend the Wyoming's and Idaho's of the world to start opening up some (tomorrow).  The businesses I am involved with keep hearing Tom Wolf is aiming for May 20th in PA. 

There's been movement of a couple bills in the PA House/Senate to reopen some businesses provided they are able to comply with specific guidelines, and also develop mitigation plans off of CDC guidelines. That main one passed the house and then senate today, basically on party lines. Highly unlikely Gov Wolf goes with that and also unlikely there's enough votes to overturn a veto. 

Rain/snow mix and 39ºF. 

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

What do you think of the the chance of some More CTP snow this Friday?

The 12z Euro & Canadian were very interesting today for this late season snow chance.

 

This week is likely to be the last week until later this fall for prospects of the wintry kind in the majority of PA. There's 3 disturbances on the models that have been showing up for this week, with this evening's system being one of them. Another weaker disturbance passes through tomorrow evening (Wed night). This one arrives from the west and it doesn't look like it's going to make it over the western mountains precip wise. But there will probably be another light accumulation in the Laurels and potentially more flakes to be seen in western PA and the immediate central off the Laurels. 

Friday's system looks like the strongest of the 3. Track of the system is going to dictate how far south any snowfall gets. I'd like the prospects of north-central above I-80 by the looks of things. 0z Euro has come north a tad more where the GFS/NAM reside. 0z GEFS spread has some members with a swath into the heart of PA lending to a more robust snowfall mean into places like UNV (sort of jived with the Canadian), but generally it's swath is running I-80 and above. This could be a solid event for whoever sees it, especially for the time of the year. 850 air in place ahead of the system will be sufficiently cold (-6ºC or so over most of PA prior), which is about 10ºC below average for this time of the year. If the track of the low ends up trending south, so will the prospects of a very late season snowfall with it. Northern PA/southern tier NY is the safe bet right now, and where I'm eyeing this potential to be most likely.