MAG5035

QPF aside, the two systems would have been likely examples of systems we would have all scored from had this occurred in the dead of winter. The pattern setup is just enough to finally run a couple systems under us but we need significant anomalous cold (compared to March climo) to go with that this time of the year which we don't have.

So this is happening about 10 miles from here... and probably at the top of the mountain 4 miles from here as well. It's raining here. Might see stuff like this further up in central and north central at similar elevations.

Have had some precip falling for a little while, looks to be mostly or all rain.

I don't think this storm is necessarily a loss track-wise, the main issue is what I mentioned the other day about precip intensity vs very marginal temperatures. Although, I suppose a bump NW with this initial shield of WAA precip doesn't help with the earlier portion of this event where the best chance for initial snowfall is.. esp central and SE. It's chilly and quite dry in front of this system, like last week. The snow potential on the lead up this week was certainly viable.. If we had a solid slug of moderate to heavy precip targeting the region late tonight into tomorrow morning, most of us would likely be receiving an accumulating wet snowfall. The problem is a separation from the initial precip which seems destined more toward the north central and the blossoming precip associated with the developing coastal low. Timing of the latter is later tomorrow, when the strong high (which doesn't have extremely cold air to be tapped anyways) is off to the east and the delay in the onset of more decent precip allows for daytime warming of the already highly marginal low level temps. Thus, we still have a viable snow threat in the north central region (esp at higher elevations) where this initial wave of precip will impact the most and where it will remain just barely cold enough as the coastal takes over. Unfortunately for the central and Sus Valley, whatever potential flakes may be seen is going to be dependent on if we can develop a band of WAA precip. Early looks at the HRRR haven't been too enthused about that. The radar looks okay (much better for the north central eventually) but one has to be mindful of the dry air in place. Just another case of close but not enough... fundamentally the same problems are still there. I still think the continued +AO coupled with the quietly persistent -PNA is outdoing what the recently turned negative EPO regime could have done for our region without that counterbalance. The AO is at nearly +5 right now, and the pattern alignment over the CONUS favoring eastern ridging at 500mb won't allow for this system to really amp. The EPO may have helped enough to finally get something under us, but we're not cold enough...and we're way late in the season to rely on marginal. The system later this week may well take about the same track as tomorrow's system, but it doesn't appear that it will have enough cold to work with outside of the higher north central.

Models and ensembles are still generally supportive of this snow threat on Monday, which I think could be in the cards for most in here. The Euro still leads the way but has edged down accums and shifted north a tad. Some of the runs this week on that model were looking March/November 2018 worthy. Obviously the elevated central and north central parts of the state stand the best chance of seeing any kind of decent accumulations, but we could see accumulating potential even in the Sus Valley. Surface temps are going to be very marginal and it seems that timing is heading towards most of this event being in the daytime though, especially east. I think the biggest thing I see from the models is the snow potential appears to be rate driven. The column temps are there enough if we have a wave of heavier precipitation, and we're going to need a several hour burst of heavy precip to realize any white on the ground with the surface temps.

I had a light coating on the grass and cold surfaces, 0.2” ish. It was snowing decent for a little while last night. It seemed just a couple hundred feet of elevation made the difference between that and a half inch to an inch here off the Laurels, and once below about 1100-1200’ (I’m at about 1300’) there was little to no accum. The Allegheny Front is white of course, I didn’t get a chance to run up and see how much was up there.

Me too lol, I haven't gotten to put mine out since I made it.

I don't know if much of tonight's wave makes it very far east of the mountains, but from I-99/US 220 below I-80 westward into the Laurel's region this is starting to look like a surprise event considering what CTP has in their winter products at the moment compared to the models today. Early HRRR looks into this event are pretty robust, with more northern extent than the NAM and high end advisory snow amounts Cambria/Somerset (Laurels). Models are generally supportive of that region (and even into the surrounding counties) seeing potentially an advisory event "on paper". Temps are warm today obviously, but dew points are very low.. so I don't think getting a timely changeover will be hard once the heavier precip moves in. Given how warm it has been and virtually no preceding or entrenched true cold, this is going to be very springlike and play out more like an early April type wave.. with accums mostly on the grassy surfaces and it might take awhile to actually get anything going on the ground. But timing of this thing overnight is going to help. I think any road issues that pop up will be reserved for the higher Laurel's. Somerset County looks to be the PA place to be for this, and I wouldn't be surprised if parts of that county sees close to the amount the short term guidance is putting out snow wise. I don't think the precip makes it past the the mountains to the Sus Valley heavy enough to make for any accums, even if it does actually mix or changeover. Will have to see how the swath tracks, as it could run the turnpike or perhaps make it a bit further north as the HRRR is suggesting. A decent amount of guidance says I get my biggest snowfall of the season tonight, we'll see lol.

Haha it’s okay. My biggest single event this year was 2.1” back in Jan, of which like an inch of that was actually sleet. I’ve never seen a winter like that here, the bad ones always have at least one half decent event. The only reason I have 15.5” is being right at the foot of the Laurels and getting several inch or less type snows. The airport 15 miles SE of Altoona (KAOO) I think has like 5” for the season. We could get whatever large snowstorm from here out in the next few weeks but it isn’t going to change that stretch of futility. I almost hope that we don’t see anything notable til next winter. Because this winter has pretty much demonstrated what a truly bad one looks like.

I'm bringing this over here. Yea i was reading some of that last night and this morning, which continued over to their banter. I've noticed it seems the forums have been moderated less the last couple winters.. which is fine in some respects as there's no need to get super strict on being on topic or some banter scattered here and there, even in the busier threads (this one is small enough that usually banter isn't an issue). But a couple of those folks down there need 5 posted or banned as it's been reading maybe slightly better than your run of the mill facebook news comment section.

I saw 74ºF here today. I made a new thread for spring, you guys can thank me later when we probably get that super late snowstorm out of nowhere lol.

This new thread should hold us over for awhile. I'm starting to feel like a broken record, but until the AO breaks down we are going to remain in the same general pattern we've had largely the last 2 months. The major downturn of the EPO in the progs does offer up a potential winter opportunity later this coming weekend as the monster East Pac into AK ridge (-EPO) tries to press the cold via a very strong high tracking to the north. Again, this +AO regime up over the pole is mitigating what such a negative EPO could potentially do. Another issue is the trough dumping into the west coast (-PNA) It does appear to be enough to suppress the storm track in the case of this storm next week but there doesn't appear to much opportunity for the wave being progged to deepen much. If we didn't have the continued low heights over the pole, we would be probably talking a major period of cold for March incoming with how negative the EPO is forecast to go. Here's todays Euro at H144, first the surface and then the 500mb.. and you can see what this +AO (and -PNA) does despite the monster -EPO. But you can also see that the -EPO tries to press the cold into the northern US despite a 500mb look that doesn't look anything of the sort. It also shows this wave doesn't have much opportunity for amplification. So while we may time this really strong high (1048 in the case of today's Euro) with a wave to get wintry precip. It may not be much, or even suppressed.

The overnight GFS (and the 6z coming in) is still persistent on a snow event in our area near the 12th. A look at the GFS ensembles didn't show much support for that op position and reviewing yesterday's 12z insanity on the op, ensembles weren't reflecting a strong coastal snow storm in that cycle either. Other ops don't have C-PA snow (Canadian tries a rain to snow) but they do all show a potential system in the timeframe. In fact, the 0z Euro shows pretty much the kind of wave the GFS had, but running surface low further north through PA with the snow swath through NY State. GFS C-PA snowstorms have been a thing in this range this winter, and not a thing that has translated to much actual white on the ground. So given the general storm pattern all winter, I have to lean towards something like the Euro right now. Especially since the AO is forecast to be the most positive in this time frame on all the models (around +4). Again, the regime in this realm has to neutralize significantly or reverse eventually to maybe have a late chance. I just don't see a -EPO overcoming this unless it's super negative. And an especially -EPO in the progs would signify something's wrong in the guidance since the AO stays very positive. It would either mean the EPO corrects more toward neutral or positive as the forecast range gets closer (has already happened this winter) or the AO corrects toward neutral signifying some higher heights near the pole and possibly a disturbance in the strong PV. A major EPO ridge poking into the polar regions would suggest finally perturbing the PV and weakening the AO regime. But, I'm not seeing any signs of that in the ensemble guidance at the moment. I don't think we're there yet. Ironically, the GFS ensembles actually keep the EPO positive. Also, the persistently -PNA we look to remain in enforces IMO the continued issues I see in terms of storm track issues and a base warm pattern here in the east with only brief attempts at chilly. This pattern over the pole will break down, it has to... but the remarkable stability of it and continued forecast stability up through the next 10-15 currently in the models suggest that it will take time. I know your talking about March, but we might've been talking a worse winter snow wise in MDT around this time in 2016 if not for the one hit wonder of a lifetime in January. The weather can do some crazy stuff. Only needs a window of opportunity.

Nighttime outbreaks are a pretty common occurrence in the early severe season in the deep south and TN Valley as they're more dynamically driven from the more potent storm systems you start seeing in the late winter/early spring months. These setups don't necessarily require daytime heating and can happen anytime of the day. This was the first major metro hit from a big tornado in awhile and it was pretty much a direct one unfortunately. It looked like the tornado just missed the Broadway area in downtown where the Bridgestone arena, Titan's Stadium, Country Music Hall of Fame and all the different honkey tonk bars, etc along Broadway are...plus all the surrounding high rises. Tons of people down there, especially on weekends.

Of the 12z ops and ensemble guidance, the 12z Euro ensemble is particularly suggestive of this potentially being an event for C-PA. Pretty sizable clustering of coastal low tracks that would be decent C-PA tracks (although consensus still leans east of here with the main coastal). Overall, this system has an inverted trough look to it with the northern branch system from the lakes phasing into the southern branch system coming off the NC Coast. Typically this is a pretty good signal for a lighter, potentially advisory type snow event in our region even if the heaviest resides east or northeast of C-PA with the main coastal low ramping up but I'm worried about the low level/surface temp regime for a lighter event, especially east of the mountains. Will have to see if the coastal low trends closer to us with time. Like I said yesterday, very short window of opportunity for this.

I'd say the potential system near the 6-7th represents the best chance of anything that may materialize as a northern branch wave drops in and look to maybe phase. Seemed like roughly 1/4 of the members on each ensemble showed 2"+ at MDT with some bigger snows in there bumping the mean up. Think the 12z Euro ensembles for instance had something like 14/51 members with 2"+ with 4 having more than 6". It's a half decent signal at that range but I see the same base issues though stemming from our dominant pattern of anomalous low heights over the pole with a high northern branch and progression. The northern wave does seem to drop down with some amplification and a pretty good signal of phasing on the models, but not enough for my liking.. and too late. Wavelengths are shortened but it's too progressive with no blocking downstream or up top. Unfortunately I think New England is better positioned to get something out of this. Very short window for this to materialize for anyone as the cold coming in with this is in and out rapidly. Did not like the long range on the ensembles as the PV over the pole remains strongly in tact with general troughing near the west coast (quietly a pretty solid -PNA forecasted) and consistent central Pac ridging. As such all the ensembles show above normal heights in the east in the longer term. We look closer to early spring fling than scoring a winter storm with a look like that. This stuff over the pole staying business as usual throughout the model runs pretty much play into my worry of this very dominant pattern not breaking down til it's too late.. or at least late enough that it makes things much harder for us to score anything climo wise. It'd take a storm of that description for me to consider the winter maybe at least a little bit salvaged haha. And you better not leave @Wmsptwx and esp @2001kx out of this. You think I'd boycott the storm if it missed me? Haha

I had about 1.6" in the last few days of snow showers, but definitely not on the ground all at once. That brings my season to 15.5" to date. To put that in perspective for around here I still need about 6-10" to GET to the levels of the other recent junk winters of note. Those season totals I have up from the last two winters (54.6" and 52.2") are both roughly average winters for this particular location. This one's the worst I've seen personally.. I've never seen a bad winter not have at least one decent event. There's still time for that to change obviously but the recent three bad ones (01-02, 11-12, 15-16) had the bigger event before March. Since back here technically requires 3" of snow to verify an advisory (non-ice), I haven't had one of those up through today this winter. That's insane.

Nice haha. Judging by the satellite it looked like the more organized band you were under had a Huron connection to it, which is typically a way to send more significant lake snows deep into C-PA.

Got whacked with a snow squall not too long ago that added a half inch to the day. Roads are trashed. 1.3" on the day. That snow squall line is taking aim at H-burg and it might make it.

The more you get into the longer range the more heavily the computer models factor in climatology, especially in the ensembles but also operationals. We've been running an exceptionally positive AO/stratospheric PV for the majority of the winter after Jan 1 to this point. Not very often you see the pattern we have, and even less often you see it last as long as it has. So the models are factoring in the climo more in the longer range and try to break down the pattern but the reality ends up the pattern hasn't broke down, specifically in the AO realm in this winter's case. That's why you often see the "always 10 days away" debacle with pattern changes. This was especially noticeable about a month ago, in the dead of winter when we're at our coldest. Now that climo is starting to warm rapidly getting into March you'll notice we haven't seen as many long range snow events on the models lately. Typically a long lasting pattern does break down, but often not as fast as the models try to break it down... but usually it doesn't last as long as this has. My general concern lately has been that given how strong the PV has been, it may not start to finally break down until it's too late (late March/early April). We see the EPO flip postive/PNA negative next week and maintain the +AO so we're probably throwing the first week of March away with that as we ridge in the east in the wake of this cold shot. The first half of March isn't too hard to work up a storm for us with a half decent pattern, but it gets a lot harder to do late in the month. One can debate whether the dog is wagging the tail or the tail is wagging the dog in terms of how the +AO came to be and how it's maintaining itself, but this has been primarily the thing that has wrecked our winter in my opinion. This current storm was the closest thing since the beginning of the month we've had to a coastal, and you can see the other teleconnections (PNA,EPO, and NAO) are all pretty close to neutral currently but the AO, while off it's exceptionally high values is still running pretty positive. Just not enough to suppress the storm track.

Wind is ripping this morning. The Laurel’s look like a rough drive by the looks of the 511 cams. @ItstrainingtimeWhere do I collect the prize for my 100% prediction on measurable snow? Lol

Got a nice moderate snow going now but it's a race against the back edge as far as the synoptic goes.

Changing over to snow now and down to 36. This pic was at my parents 4 miles up the road in Bellwood taken a little while after the squall line (about 930pm). Piled up on the west side of the house. Wasn’t overly large stuff, more like large sleet pellets. I guess it could be more of a grapuel but it seemed like the pellets were clear and definitely not soft. It actually solidified pretty good since it was around 40 and water logged by the time I saw it.

I missed the line when it came through but I saw the hail reports on mPing and discovered there was accumulated hail in spots. So if you Sus Valley folks want some frozen there’s your shot lol. I’ll try to get a couple pics.

There's probably garden enthusiasts in Florida that are envious of the full spring fling you already have going on at your place haha.