MAG5035

I think we should keep some perspective on the fact that Harrisburg has had 5 above average winters just in the last decade (5 of the last 7 winters to be more specific). I mean you can put the asterisk on 2015-16 that like 30 of the 39 inches came from Jonas but then you'd have to do the same thing for 82-83 that featured the 83 blizzard in that super Nino winter as well (25 of the 36"). So yea last year sucked, I think we're all aware of that. But I can pick out collective bad periods (88-92, 96-02, 05-09, 11-13, etc), or overall just point out that in this 40 year chart that 23/40 were below the mean and close to half (17 winters) were 75% or less of the mean. If we end up stringing together a few lackluster winters in a row the next couple years, it's definitely not something that hasn't happened before. Obviously it's a different story if we stack up several winters in close proximity as historically bad as last winter, but until such a point I look at last winter as an anomaly where an even more anomalous weather pattern (unprecedented +AO regime) had a big part in it.

Not until parts of VA probably see their first light snowfall of the season tomorrow lol. Overall pessimism for the eastern US has been the general consensus I've seen of outlooks (even JB) for this winter. With a solidly moderate La Nina ongoing, the tendency is for the MJO to favor 4-5 as we settle into the the main part of winter. Not necessarily something that ultimately results in a complete non-winter, but could mean the base winter pattern in the east favors above average temps (eastern ridge) more often than not. This is something I anticipate being an issue that probably ruins a period of prime winter real estate at some point in Jan/Feb if we flare up a strong MJO pulse through 4-6. Again, that in itself doesn't mean we won't see anything at all or periods where we have a favorable setup. I mean, the dreaded high amplitude eastern ridge favoring MJO pulse doesn't necessarily have to materialize either. But that's what these stronger Ninas like to favor historically. As I've mentioned in a couple posts, I expect a season about 75% of normal in most of PA with the Laurel's/NW seeing the best chance of a near average season. It's not a deal breaker by any means but what happens in December weighs heavily on that thinking as I'm banking on a fast start this month with perhaps one or two widespread events that get all of us off and running. From about 5 miles west of my house at the start of the Laurel's to Pittsburgh/western PA, mission accomplished so far there with early last week's storm and associated LES/upslope. For all of us in this subforum, well we just missed lol. And I really haven't liked the pattern alignment for us that ultimately set up for yesterday's coastal in New England and is setting up tomorrow's minor event that will be well south of PA. The positive orientation of the axis of the sprawling ridge in the western/central US into Canada just isn't allowing the dig we need out of the northern branch IMO. Yesterday's coastal was primarily a southern branch event that got some late phasing way too late for us and as a double whammy, the northern stream orientation didn't allow for a cold air mass for this event, depending mainly on dynamics of the rapidly deepening coastal to get the swath of snow to the New England folks that were lucky enough to see it. So now of course that we're actually settling in a colder regime tonight and dropping a shortwave straight out of Canada, the orientation is such that the partial phasing of features are going to force the developing coastal way low and out to sea with the press of that sprawling ridge. So despite some opportunities, C-PA and the LSV ends up with a swing and a miss for the opening week of December. We moderate back above average late this week after a few chilly days as that ridge eventually pushes into the eastern US. It's likely we're going to have to deal with another cutting system near D7 to perhaps reset things back to getting another period of opportunity the following week. In terms of teleconnections, there is some good there. Models have been generally favoring somewhat negative NAO and AO and while we lose the big +PNA, it may be more neutral than outright negative depending on which ensemble has their way. MJO influence looks dampened as modeling has been keeping that within the circle. The big sticking point I"m seeing right now is the EPO being forecast to swing positive, which could imply a strong Pac jet and perhaps Pac influence on our temps and/or storm track unless we can counteract with higher heights in the NAO realm/eastern Canada to force the northern branch storm track down.

Same here, I've had some surprising wind gusts. I'd bet there's some major blowing and drifting up in the Laurel's today where there were several warning total's reported and the Seven Springs Resort region of Somerset County getting 12-15" of snow yesterday. Also, I know you were wondering about the warm November. Here's climo from the CTP discussion.

Wow, 12z Euro just roasted all of interior New England with that weekend storm. That shows the potential with a phase, although I think with the pattern alignment being presented on the models a phase solution might happen too late for us as it did there. GFS didn't really phase in northern stream energy like the Euro did and thus we have a decent coastal storm but nothing huge... but the GFS did get precip into southern PA. Still a lot of differences in features. One thing I do notice today are that it seems all solutions are a bit colder and the tracks of the developing low come out of the deep south into VA and to the coast, which is a serviceable track for us. Just don't like the alignment, with the colder scenario the northern branch just seems to squeeze this under us with eventual late development once the storm is past us. Barring some kind of major development on models (which still isn't out of the question)... I think what's on the table for us here in this setup is if we can get enough cold air in place and a wave of precip up enough into PA with this southern wave. That would present something of the advisory variety if all went right.

There's been a lot of model uncertainly with this potential storm as I mentioned on my post yesterday. It does appear that the models have consolidated more today on having a more impactful system for the Mid-Atlantic into potentially the NE. Appears the issue is going to be temps and possibly a bit of an inside low track. This brings back my other bigger post last week when this current storm was looking to cut off over a few days depressing the storm track and keeping cold in longer. What ended up happening is a more progressive outcome, as this storm will lift out more quickly and we moderate and build some heights toward the end of the week. Now temps still look to be seasonal, but that may not be enough for the Sus Valley even with the type of solution the 18z Euro put out this evening. Even though we're into early December, it's still early in the winter season and we need the more anomalous cold air mass in place. While the 0z GFS looked a bit too high and inside, I do think the 18z Euro type solution (also 0z Canadian) eventually would present more of a wintry threat for northern and potentially interior/higher elevation portions of central PA on models when the short range high resolution models get in range. And even there we could be talking a rain to snow type scenario as the storm winds up on the coast... which adds in the usual timing and having enough remaining QPF issues. A colder outcome implies more press from the northern stream and thus likely a more progressive and/or southern tracking storm. This looks like a thread the needle type deal to get a widespread C-PA snow event into the Sus Valley.

Kicking this off with some wintry obs. 30ºF with steady light snow and about 0.5-1" has fallen since late this afternoon.

Also, if you go back to the 2nd page of this thread (post 45) you find a poster that quoted JoMo's last few posts before the storm hit.. the second of which saying about the sirens going off. TIme on that post was 5:17 CDT, right at the time of the warning (VTEC31) issuance. 10 minutes later was his last post about the couplet being nearly overhead. Whatever happened to that particular thread (or portion of this thread) where people were posting as the storm was unfolding? I seem to remember that folks might've been watching that first warned cell when the Joplin cell suddenly exploded into the monster tornado signature just outside of town. There's of course those couple chaser videos that show this tornado going from a developing multiple vortice to a massive wedge in about the time it takes for the doppler to make one scan. I know that's one of the many aspects of this storm that fascinates me..practically watching the whole wall cloud drop to the ground in a minute or two.

Very glad to hear that you and your family are ok.