MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MAG5035

  1. I'm certainly mindful of these frontal boundary setups where the fronts pressing south as AllWeather alluded to. I said last night that I'd rather be watching this evolve from our region than from the DC area. One factor is these waves are pretty close to each other, precip might never really end during the day tomorrow in some places in between events.. so the close proximity might hang up the front a bit more. On the other hand, this doesn't look like a frontal passage with marginal cold behind it. This will have arctic cold pressing down into this moisture, which will serve to make this a snow bomb in a narrow corridor. Also could make for a sharper cutoff of precip on the northern side as well. As for a rough guess on amounts attm, I do think roughly the route 22 corridor and south (and then from I-81 southeast in eastern Penn) looks pretty decent for generally a 4-8" type deal, with 2-5" N and NW of that (west of I-81 in eastern Penn). A narrow corridor in the southern tier depending on where the best QPF ends up could have a 10-12" swath. Another thing that might need considered as the event progresses is ratios, as the arctic air presses south. Could make folks with more moderate QPF (e.g. that corridor between the turnpike and 80) end up with pretty big amounts as well. Gonna be interesting haha.
  2. I'm surprised they didn't go with watches in the first place in those counties, WPC guidance had been pretty bullish on >0.25" in north central. I personally think that 0.1-0.25" range they have should be extended down to include the area between Altoona - Mount Union-Bedford. Maybe the cold can hold a bit deeper longer and you can get more sleet. Speaking of which, mainly pingers and some freezing rain mixed in down here with temps around 27-28ºF.
  3. I still think that frontal boundary will be sluggish to press southeast especially with that second wave right on the heels of the first one. Probably won't be to the point of full NAM, but that solution isn't particularly outlandish either. The cold air that is pressing will be pretty legit too and certainly nothing marginal, so we could be talking more ice again in the southern tier to start (or transition back from rain if precip never really ends from wave #1) with the cold air bleeding in at the surface and low levels first if the more northern solutions come to fruition. Either way, I know I'd rather watch this whole mess evolve from this region instead of the DC tropics.
  4. Or at least have a doppler near Scranton so that whole part of eastern PA would be easier to monitor these winter storms coming into that area (or severe weather in the summer). Actually, one in Reading would ideally fill that radar hole.
  5. Just ventured out into the backyard to measure the overall snow depth. Pretty much between 15-16" with an ice layer somewhere in the middle of that. Safe to say the state of the snowpack is strong here.
  6. This week is certainly looking eventful... I'm becoming quite concerned about the ice potential with the Tuesday/Wed system. Can barely call it a cutter anymore, looks more like a piece of southern energy that ejects out and a more dominant northern stream low that resides all the way up in Ontario (as in the Canada Territory Ontario, not the lake). Once again, utter lack of a surface (or 850/700) low tells me that it won't be cut and dry to say the least with the p-types over the commonwealth with this particular system. Broad SW flow and rising heights in response to the digging out west will certainly ensure warm air comes in aloft, but no strong surface low running to the lakes indicates to me that low level temps are probably going to anchor themselves near the freezing mark or below for a good part of this in the eastern 2/3s of the state in general and the central third in particular. Could set up a significant sleet/zr period in the central counties. Bulk of precip looking to come thru during the evening Tuesday helps the case for freezing rain if the surface temps are there. The NAM/SREFs have had a lot of sleet as well. In fact CTP grids for my point and click location are indicating 1-2 inches of it during Tuesday changing to rain or freezing rain Tue night. WPC probs for >.25" ZR are def supportive of winter storm watches potentially being needed for at least some of the central counties as noted in the map here: So there's that, and then it is beginning to look like at least the southern third to half of the region is going to be decently impacted by the second wave that runs the frontal boundary on Thursday. GFS on its own just skirting the southern tier with snow, European has at least moderate snow for the southern third of the state and the NAM/GGEM are hitting the majority of the state pretty squarely. Euro ensemble mean is a bit more expansive getting at least the southern half to two thirds of the state in moderate snows and more notably the GFS ensemble mean actually looks at lot like the Euro's ensemble mean. So my current assessment of the situation would be that from I-80 southward (at the least) is looking at the increasing potential of a sizable snowfall. Positioning of the frontal boundary is going to be very important for this second wave, as the corridor of heavy snow is likely not going to be extremely wide. But given the big time thermal gradient, this could be a pretty big snowfall for the folks lucky/unlucky enough to get it. Here's WPC day 3 probs of >4", which probably aren't encompassing the whole storm yet for PA. But there's the initial take.
  7. European looks like a pretty big southern PA and I-70 corridor hit again. Pretty major thermal gradient as well... at hour 78 the 850mb -16ºC line is into NW PA while the +12ºC line is across North Carolina.
  8. Right at 5" as the precip is starting to shut off around here. Nice storm. Holy **** haha, with the -10 isotherm at 850mb cutting PA cleanly in half diagonally to boot. NAM'ed for sure.
  9. Wow that's pretty impressive, no idea why CTP backed off their 4-6" range in the Altoona area. Probably should report that so they can change their map once again lol. 4.3" up here in Bellwood. Saw a report on CTP facebook about it changing to rain/sleet in Johnstown a little while ago. Think the Altoona area should maintain all snow with the rest of this main precip pushing through..wouldn't rule out some freezing drizzle later on though with any lingering very light precip.
  10. Yea we'll see what happens with that, with that trailing wave setup I feel like we could have a lagging frontal boundary that hangs up near the Mason-Dixon somewhere. GFS is probably pressing it southeast more cuz it has had a stronger cutter.
  11. Quick OT, That 18z hr NAM looked pretty sizable with the second wave in PA. Also still looks really mixy with the cutter. RGEM starting to get into range of the cutter and it's showing some decent front end mix too. GFS seems to be the least enthused overall with front end mixing. Either way probably gonna end up at least an advisory mix event for most of us with that. Gonna be an interesting week.
  12. Yea alot of the lingering light stuff falling now in your area is under the CCX radar beam. WGAL's live radar show's a thin area of light precip falling in a corridor from Harrisburg to Lebanon, and on eastward.
  13. It looks like we're starting to see that well advertised late storm split starting to occur, though it seems the slot is further east more over the Sus Valley and NE PA and that secondary heavier precip area is further east/southeast. We'll have to see if this stuff mounting a charge in western PA get off the mountains and slide across the state. Looks like some kind of line of heavy snow embedded in that. 2001kx must be seein some pretty intense snowfall attm.
  14. Still a pretty steady stream of it from out past Pittsburgh coming, looks to last at least several more hours. Pittsburgh radar looks quite healthy so we should be able to keep up good rates for at least the next 1-2 hours. I'd say the high end of the NWS map's 4-6" in the Altoona area is looking quite doable right now.
  15. 3.1" so far, getting a heavier bout of bigger wet fluffy flakes currently. This is actually turning out to be a half decent event here.
  16. Certainly not an active start. Had to look but I found on SPC's site that February 25 ended a 51 day stretch without a single watch issued by SPC.
  17. I would but the 511pa.com site makes it hard to link the cameras. Your clicking a camera on the map and it pops a small window up with the image or streaming video that you can make full screen, but no separate link for each individual camera.
  18. I'm starting to wonder if the far north central (NW part of CTP's CWA) towards the US 6 corridor gets that 4-6". Precip has seemed pretty broken up there so far. Other than that there's def no weak spot, as precip shield coverage is very solid across the state.. likely attributing them bumping totals up in the south central. Heck Cashtown already has 3".
  19. Def looks to be all snow the whole way. Judging by 511 cams Routes 22 and 219 look to be slushy in spots but not too bad. Roads probably will start getting worse again after 3 or 4 if the steady snow keeps up as we lose the more direct sun getting through the clouds helping to keep maintained roads fairly clean.
  20. This is happening currently on I-99 at MP 52 (Bald Eagle Exit). Car was upside down when I first started watching. (Note: image is screen capture not video link)