MAG5035

So far this frontal passage has ripped through Ohio to the tune of almost 200k without power via First Energy"s outage map, and some outages starting to appear in western PA. Currently receiving some heavy rain just out ahead of the frontal line itself... which is moving rapidly and likely to be here in the next hour or so.

Finally a good rainstorm in this area today that drew a half decent response on the local streams. Actually overachieved in the portion of PA that needs it the most by the looks of the totals CTP received (map thru 6pm tonight) with a stripe of 1.5-2+" up the center of the state. It is still stupid warm out at this hour at 63ºF degrees to go with the pretty much 100% humidity and fog. The 2 inch snowfall i received on the morning of the 2nd feels about as distant of a memory as last year with the past week's stretch of warm weather. Can't remember a stretch of November weather that was so warm with a couple days in the past week up around 75ºF or so. That's just about as warm as it can possibly get this time of the year around here. Certainly the opposite of the past couple mid Novembers, which were quite cold. I know we did cash in the early cold in 2018 with the big snowstorm but that setup doesn't come around too often. I'd rather be in the thick of this significant above average regime now than 3-4 weeks from now. We still look to linger somewhat above average to close out this week even with the passage of today's system. However, the next system slated for around Monday looks to finally send some late November/early Dec caliber chill into the region next week. Overall not really seeing anything yet on the models I'm particularly excited about in terms of anything noteworthy that sticks quite yet. There's cold opportunities but it's transient looking. We've been working a pretty strong +AO/NAO and -PNA which helped contribute to the cause of the very warm weather here. Model progs take the edge off that regime a bit but still keeping the AO/NAO positive and PNA somewhat negative. MJO working phase 8-1- possibly 2, which sounds good but this time of the year phase 8 and 1 equate differently. Using OND data, phase 8 is a bit of a tossup and phase 1 skews warm on the east coast while colder over the rest of the country. These two phases show more warmth with the SON data, which arguably might be the better one to apply right now given the late tropical activity and warmer than average waters in the Atlantic and Gulf. MJO may get into phase 2, which is a colder phase in either SON or OND.. so that might lend some support for such things. But otherwise, while we're going to finally trend colder starting next week.. I'm not seeing an established legit winter pattern emerging quite yet. And given we're still just getting into mid November, that's fine.

So 2.0” was what I measured with that band of snow here. Took a drive up to the top of the mountain west of town and there was probably about 3” or so up there. Roads were a disaster, especially up there where it was 27°.

Lol if it keeps snowing like this I might be able to. I’m up to 1.3”, and that’s here at 1300’ off the Laurel’s

Got the first “roads are caving” pic of the season. Some pretty decent snow falling as the Huron connected snowband has shifted overhead.

Rain/snow mix here now.

CTP added winter weather advisories for Somerset and Cambria this afternoon for up to 2-4". Could be a wild early morning in places up there with some high winds as well as a brief Huron connection to potentially enhance an overall robust lake response with this brief but significant cold shot. New snow map:

One heck of a shower rolling through with some pretty high winds. Small hail and/or grapuel falling with it (smaller than pea size)

Pretty impressive early snow event in southern New England ongoing, maybe not in sheer accumulations but fact that it's snowing basically all the way to the coast (places like Boston metro). There was also some flakes reported in parts of NYC metro and Long Island earlier today along with some reports in northern/northeastern PA. Just a tad late for us, and perhaps a bit north with the boundary. This event is probably a moderate snowstorm for us in Dec/Jan. There was some entrainment of Zeta's moisture, but the remnant core rocketed northeast rapidly and didn't really catch much of south central PA. A lot of the heavy lifting yesterday in terms of precip was the warm advection precip shield and we had a lull in between that and the upper level low that rolled through in the early morning hours. The deepening at the coast was just a bit too late for us. Been watching pattern evolution alot this month to maybe catch some early hints. We've been developing solid La Nina conditions as the fall has gone on with the previous weekly ENSO 3.4 region at -1.4ºC (quite low). The new three month average will probably be out next week for ASO. The previous three month average for JAS was -0.6ºC and given October's bigger anomalies I'd look for that new value to perhaps be quite close to moderate territory. On the weekly scale we have been there (moderate) the last few weeks. To technically get the official full blown La-Nina, the conditions need to be present for at least 5 consecutive three month averages (we'll be up to two next week). But La-Nina conditions are definitely present and It's very likely to be some kind of an influence this winter. That influence has already manifested in a very active Atlantic tropical season. Standard boilerplate La-Nina winters here like a lot of northern branch, limited southern branch/phasing opportunities, wild temperature swings in a general progressive pattern, and perhaps a tad drier than average. So when I watched this current storm roll up this week, I can easily envision this happening during the winter with a strong cutoff in the SW ejecting out and drawing Gulf moisture up but not phasing with a progressive northern branch. The result can be a good snowstorm but more of a 6-8" type variety. Of course not all Nina's are standard, and other factors like the MJO and the NAO are going to play into what we end up looking like this winter. A stronger Nina later in the winter could invite more of a possibility of the MJO spending some time in the dreaded 4-5-6 or certainly at least the combo of the two things being an overwhelming influence in eastern US temps. It would probably be preferable to remain in the weak to borderline moderate range, as there isn't too many examples of moderate or strong Nina's having notably snowy winters around here analog wise. Will be interesting to see how the strength of it evolves as we get into the front end of winter.

There was also this slightly unprecedented event on this date the very next year.

Some lighter rain currently, with some heavier stuff out near Pittsburgh likely to move back in soon. It's def been quite a rainy day here... and also somewhat breezy with a stiff wind out of the NNE. Need this to return in about a month and a half. Speaking of flakes... looking beyond today's system to the end of the weekend into Monday, we have a very strong frontal passage progged for later Sunday. This brings -8 to -10ºC 850mb air into all of PA by Monday morning. Brief window with this cold shot but it's looking to be a potent one that will present a 6-12hr period where we light up the western/central PA counties with snow showers and even squalls for the first time. The NW snowbelt could get some accumulations out of this as well as lighter amounts into the Laurels. Reasonable chance some scattered action gets into the Sus Valley in the form of wet flakes and/or grapuel mixed in Monday. The anomalies with this airmass at 850 are in the -10 to -12ºC range below climo for the first half of Monday.

The progressive pattern kind of limits the potential. If we end up with the further south track, it'll likely be because it ended up with a more progressive storm and you don't have as much time to get much of a changeover. Zeta runs out in front of the closed 500mb low, and the weakening 500mb low slides east just under us and doesn't really phase with the northern branch. This is a really big early season snowstorm if these things phased together with the cold available nearby, but we're too progressive. I think that far northern part of PA does change over at the end but probably the inch or less variety slushy accumulation.. pretty much your guess.

I think the whole subforum is basically locked into the washout Thur into early Friday for at least an inch or so. The only question now with the rainfall is how much of PA sees the more excessive 2+ totals, which is likely going to hinge on how far the remnant low of Zeta presses north before getting arced eastward. This morning's WPC map really knocked that down from yesterday.. with only the southern tier below the turnpike seeing 2" or more now. They seem to be factoring more heavily the GFS/GEFS in that makeup. I personally expect a lot of 1.5-2" type amounts in the subforum, with perhaps the far NW near an inch. If Zeta gets high enough and tracks just south of the Mason-Dixon line, that would likely send it's swath of more excessive rainfall rates directly associated with the tropical system itself into a good portion of southern PA. Flash flood guidance is through the roof, and thus we'd need a widespread 4"+ rainfall in 6 or 12hrs to see any notable issues in that department. We'd be hard pressed to see that even if Zeta sent it's swath of heaviest precip right through the heart of C-PA. Either way, this will be a very beneficial rainfall.

Well, the way too early look at the 12km NAM looks fun. 984mb low sitting dead center on the NJ coastline at 84hrs with a changeover starting in NW PA hr 78 and by 84 is showing approx 2/3rd of PA changed or mixing. And that's after a basically PA-wide 2"+ of rain has fallen. Def in the Euro camp with the souped up coastal low (though 18z Euro run wasn't quite as wound up). All normal NAM disclaimers aside, I do like to see what it's looking like when a storm is just getting into the edge of it's range in comparison to especially the Euro. Here's the kind of snow accumulation makeup we're seeing via the latest Euro ensemble probs. It's quite a sold snow signal for NY state/VT/NH and into a good bit of southern New England. Showing the probs of 1+ in 24 hrs, which shows how far things could reach with a potential changeover. I will mention that there are half decent 3"+ probs down to about US 6 in the northern tier of PA, those probs and the 6"+ ones focus on NY State/VT/NH/northern MA/southern ME. Couple 12+ probs show just in the Adirondacks and also Green&White Mountains. So to simplify, the Euro ensembles are liking a general 4-8" type storm centered in those aforementioned northeastern locations. The 18z GEFS is similar placement wise, just simply less overall since that op and ensemble have been less amped.

I see the Euro op continues to show the potentially snowier solution, which is certainly on the table for the north central counties and possibly the Laurels as well. A quick look at things shows the Euro/Euro ensemble has a notably sharper 500mb trough than the GFS/GEFS and thus a much deeper surface low. Pattern is somewhat progressive, and that probably limits the amount of phasing where we'd see something much wilder in the wintry department here. But either way, I think even a compromise of that guidance would support a solid chance of flakes in the C-PA high ground towards the end of this late week system. The chances look a lot better further up into the NEUS, with even the immediate interior of southern New England showing solid snow on both models. Seeing snow nearby or even some flakes here at the house to end October would be nice.. although I'm eyeing up the big time rainfall potential being presented with an already sizable mid-latitude system on its own PLUS yanking up Zeta into it. It's one of those setups that could stop the immediate short term effects of our drought in its tracks.

Becoming more evident on the models that the bigger ticket storm system this coming week is starting to show in the Thur/Fri timeframe over seeing much precip early week with the weaker waves running the jet through PA. Also becoming evident is this system is presenting a Northeast snowfall potential. Both GFS and Euro showing a drawn out, possibly two part system with the front part of the overall system providing the much needed rainfall we all need and the second part associated with a robust closed 500mb low and increasingly available cold bringing more rainfall and a changeover to snow somewhere in the NE dependent on track. I posted the GFS having the snow into the higher areas of C-PA the other day and tonight the Euro has it while the GFS is on a more northern track attm that gives the interior Northeast from NY state north a pretty decent early season snow. Both indicate tropical shenanigans from the Gulf that may charge things up more.. hopefully in the rainfall department. I'd look for any snow threat to be of the elevational variety of course, with the Laurel's/N Central/Poconos the favorites if we get the track we need... but here we go. We're at a D4-6 event now, not out in fantasy land. Euro:

The real question is will the AC still be running? Lol

Despite continued dry weather overall and very low streamflows, we’ve had just enough rain this fall for the grass to make a rip roaring comeback. Still quite active despite actually having several frosts and a freeze last Saturday.

I pulled my window AC's for the winter a couple weeks ago when we were getting morning frost on the daily. Kinda regretting that yesterday and today lol. Also, how about the 12z GFS ftw with the wintry Halloween in the central counties? It even snows in Bradford with the Tuesday wave of precip. Probably pressing cold too much, but everything's been showing a major battleground temp-wise. The -NAO period we had didn't stick for long, and we're working a -PNA (ridge axis off the Pac coast).. thus the eastern ridging and not much press southeastward of what is some pretty wintry stuff in the north-central... soon to be diving even deeper in the central US. Models seem to differ a good bit in pattern progression later next week, so that will be something to watch. Winter's not too far off.

Looks like meso obs around here were 29° for a low this morning in town. Probably some mid 20s in the cold valley spots outside of town. Saw Bradford got to 21°.

The sun managed to come out in the mid- late afternoon around here. Looking a bit past peak now but still some good color on the foliage.

Settled into a pretty decent steady rain here as precip has finally blossomed. Short/near term guidance doesn't seem to be seeing the heavy band in the Laurels and steady precip in the adjacent counties (AOO-UNV corridor) very well. Probably some pretty heavy rain under that area in Somerset County aided with the S/SE flow upsloping into the ridges and some of this enhancement may work into the ridge and valley region overnight I-80 south into the Sus Valley. Still doesn't look like the LSV sees the widespread 2"+ type deal that seemed like a certainty but should still generally see 0.5-1.0" with some higher amounts in spots. Unfortunately for our north-central, the heavier rain doesn't look interested in making much press above I-80... with some lighter rainfall instead. Once to the US 6 corridor in the central, there might be little if any rain.

The Sus Valley and most of the southern tier look okay for this event but that north central portion of PA in the D2 drought area aren't looking all that great for getting the type of rainfall that is really needed there after pretty much the whole area had looked pretty good for a region wide 1-2" rainfall a few days ago. 12z GFS/Euro darn near take PIttburgh and SWPA out of the whole thing and really reduces the central (JST/AOO/UNV). Given radar trends of the initial rainfall edging toward the mason-dixon line, I'd say that's a bit extreme as Pitt and central region should get into that eventually this eve. Really don't know what to think of the globals really pushing southeast with this. They could be lowballing some considering what should be high PWATs/very efficient rainfall via tropical connection (Delta remnants) and a nice Atlantic easterly fetch via a 1030ish high setting up to our north. I think everyone in the region will see rain, it's just a matter of how much and how far into central PA some of the more soaking rain gets. Having discussed the event at hand, I'd like to throw out some thoughts about the pattern we're about to get into and some winter thoughts/concerns. The NAO/AO is heading solidly negative in the D6-10 and possibly staying there for a time. The mid into late month period def looks to favor below average, with today's GFS looking more like mid-late November on D6-10. A pattern like that has been at a premium the last few years, so seeing it emerge in mid-October is fairly encouraging for possibly seeing this regime show up once we get into the winter. When I posted in August some really early thoughts on the upcoming winter, my concern was not so much whether or not the cold will be around but moisture and that thinking hasn't changed. We're seeing the continuation of an overall dry regime getting deep into the fall now, with this current event being of a tropical origin and not a typical mid-latitude cyclone. ENSO is looking like it's going to be a player as we have a pretty solid La Nina going, with last weeks number at -1.1ºC in Nino 3.4. Typical Nina pattern favors a northern branch storm track over Pac NW with limited southern stream influence (dry California coast). With the base setup like that, downstream blocking via the NAO becomes more important than usual to anchor an eastern trough and to capitalize on more limited opportunities for phasing a coastal. Generally, I expect our winter events to be northern branch heavy this season.. but if we have a good pattern alignment we can put together some solid events (4-6" type) and clippers which pretty much didn't exist in our region last winter. I don't usually put together an outlook but I'll throw out that I think snowfall will be in the 75-100% of average range, with the Laurels perhaps having the best opportunity for an average season with what I see is a better season than the last few for LES/upslope in that region. Now this could be worse if we get into a Nina type setup that drives a lot of eastern ridging (dominant MJO 4-5-6, for example), but either way this season will likely be a lot better compared to pretty much a rock bottom winter last year. There's also the 95-96 option on the table if we do lock in an extended -NAO/-AO during the front half of the winter. Think winter's still far off? This was the GFS hr 180 today.

I managed to watch about 10-15 minutes of it.. couldn't hang.

It should advance into the Sus Valley later on this evening and into the overnight hours, and it does appear there's also some stuff developing from the south starting to come up into York/Lancaster counties on TBWI radar.