MAG5035

Probably the next hour at least (edit: I'm talking just about the heavy band, not the rest of the event lol). I'm watching to see what that weak spot in returns does down in Somerset County and if we keep building some banding. Back to heavy snow here but probably not as heavy as there.

I see you had to switch to a bigger ruler haha.

Next couple hours are crucial but my chances for getting that high are slipping away the longer that band stays arced to my NW and north. It seems to be setting up over 2001kx over to just NW of IPT. @2001kx has to be getting crushed. This is the band that's going to see the excessive totals and it's setting more NW than any guidance had it earlier today. Up to 8" with moderate rates. Snowing decent but I probably lost my outside chance at 20".

You can see the dry slot on the IR, if you put it in motion you can see the comma head shifting towards the Sus Valley. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-14-24-0-50-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

Mesoanalysis has the low roughly on the southern tip of the Delmarva currently. So track doesn't look to end up as far NW as some models had it but the models like the Euro and especially NAM got the stronger warm nose aloft correct. I was def thinking mix in southern York/Lancaster but didn't think it'd get as far north as it did. That tremendous 850mb fetch likely had a big hand in that. I'd say things will probably get changed over once heavier precip starts shifting back into the Sus Valley (and also comes up from the SW by looks of the LWX radar). Likely within the next couple hours.

That's a nice band your set up in right now, it does seem these deform bands are setting even more NW than some of the more NW guidance had them.

WeatherBell doesn't include sleet in it's snow map like TT does. There's a separate accumulation map for sleet (using a 3:1) map. Which brings the question, does anyone have any noteworthy sleet accumulations to report? Typically I'll measure and clear when a transition occurs and measure the sleet separately.

7.6" and moderate snow. Waiting for that deform band to shift over just a little bit more.

7.0" Moderate snow. That band associated with the thundersnow over Mt Davis (Somerset County) is lurking. I did see the GLM flash product on the COD satellite page pick up on about two or three strikes back about an hour ago. The extra instability likely aided by the SE flow over the one ridge line in that region.

So the pingers did make it to H-burg. I'm pretty surprised the mix line got up that far, so looks like the NAM et al ended up being more correct thermally aloft. In terms of the dry air post I mean yea it does appear the slot is going to get into the LSV, although judging by LWX radar trends its more of a slot of lighter rates than an actual dry slot. Since the columns already busted, the lighter rates will probably ensure some mixing continues until the heavier bands start shifting back east/northeast later tonight and heavier rates and dynamics likely turn things back to snow. The pivot isn't completely obvious yet but it does appear like it's showing some signs of starting, so watch radar trends on CCX radar.

M6.2". Heavy snow with a pretty stiff breeze. 0.8" last hour

That stuff about to come up into town from the south looks nuts. Checked the CC product to make sure that wasn't a mix lol (50dbz!)

Yea we might have some lower rates or at least more varying rates during about the 6pm hour or so. The stuff building on Pittsburgh radar should pivot over and I think the real height of this thing could be roughly 0-3z (7-10pm) with the max rates of the storm.

Moderate to heavy snow continues. Breeze has kicked up a bit. M5.4" with 1.4" in the last hour.

At 4.0". Rates really picked up within last 20-30min.. it's really going to start piling up. Very heavy snow and visibility under 1/8th. This stuff is straight powder snow too.

Per CTP discussion, it had to have been close but apparently March '93 must not have went down as a 24"+ in IPT. This storm has a chance to break all of that. .CLIMATE... The last time there was 12+" of snow over a two day period (as many storms will cross from one date into another): State College: 6-7 Feb 2010 = 14.0" Harrisburg: 20-21 Mar 2018 = 14.2" Williamsport: 14-15 Mar 2017 = 18.4" Last time there was an 24+" storm (not sayin`, just sayin`): State College: 3-4 Mar 1994 = 27.7" Harrisburg: 22-23 Jan 2016 = 30.2" Williamsport: 12-13 Jan 1964 = 24.1" (the only two-foot storm for Williamsport) Highest two-day total: State College: 29-30 Mar 1942 = 30.5" Harrisburg: 22-23 Jan 2016 = 30.2" (that one, again) Williamsport: 12-13 Jan 1964 = 24.1" (that one, again) Higest two-day total in December: Harrisburg: 24-25 Dec 1961 = 13.9" Williamsport: 25-26 Dec 1969 = 17.2" Highest one-day total in December: Harrisburg: 23 Dec 1963 = 10.1" Williamsport: 26 Dec 1969 = 14.7" State College (7am-7am): 11 Dec 1992 = 12.5"

Definitely, the radar seems set up real nice right now. You may miss the most intense bands but I think you should get to at least 12" without too much drama.

2.9" with moderate-heavy snow. Visibility ~1/4mi. 1" in the last hour. That rate has been about the same since a bit before 1pm.

Wow on the 18z HRRR. And these Kuchera totals aren't doing anything mind blowing ratio wise. Did some calculating and KAOO and UNV get to their ~2ft amounts via 14-15:1 ratios. Selinsgrove (SEG) and IPT get to their nearly 32" totals via a 13-14:1 average. This is doable if the QPF ends up that high in the deform bands.

Passing the 1" mark here, moderate rates and 26ºF.

Looks like the more steady stuff has arrived here by looks of the radar. Moderate rate currently.

Wow, this might have been the snowiest GFS run of them all right at game time. Both that and the 3k NAM have 3' at IPT (via Kuchera). Huge difference in the York/LNS realm though. That's going to be something to watch today which model wins with the thermals. Heck the 3k NAM got sleet all the way to KAOO on a huge surge of >0ºC 850mb temps, that's probably not going to happen. York and Lancaster probably aren't quite going to get to 20+ either as there should be some mixing. Given already solid establishment of cold air at 925mb and below via the Canadian high, I still feel most mixing is going to be in the form of sleet north of the mason-dixon. Here's the latest HRRR, which probably represents accums in the LSV a bit better currently with limited erosion of the accumulations in far southern York and Lancaster . Still snowing at 18hr in pretty much the whole eastern half of PA.

Already a nice burst of moderate-heavy snow with this first band, accumulating on all surfaces.