WarmNose

26 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

The 18z NAM appears to be sticking to its guns.

3k actually looked like a significant improvement..

31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

What a craptastic winter! The blockbuster cold pattern that was supposed to start next week went poof, thank god irs almost over

At least it’s not an analfronal cutter yet. We could honestly use the rain. Need the crappy beds as far up on the bank as we can get them. Beetlespins aren’t as effective in deep water 

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Euro doesn't look good for wraparound 

No it doesn’t..but it jumped a couple hundred miles south with the ULL at 12z..it’s moving towards other guidance 

00z

12z

32 minutes ago, msuwx said:

 

The 'it doesn't get cold anymore' narrative gets tiresome. 

Agreed, but you have to agree it’s difficult to get snow when a trough sets up in the west for the entirety of winter..every winter 

37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah , we get our best snows at 45-50 degrees!

Ducks on the pond! CJ going with a mountain r/s mix on Saturday/Sunday.. even with models being a disaster for the mountains today..this one ain’t over..You have to smell the rain down in the valley before you accumulate on top of the mountain  

3 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

I am just hoping the latest Euro was correct and the earlier CMC was on to something. Clearly seems to be several different options on the table, but I am nervous about the situation. I'm not giving up just yet.

Might be time to put all of our eggs in that trailing ULL basket..Need that flow out of the NW after the rain

Ukie ticked east with precip..we don’t want to lose it too far east yet bc the precip shield will usually expand towards verification..but ughh

15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s the best look we’ve had all winter, and looks like an old school 80s type of storm! I’d rather be chasing fantasy storms, than fantasy pattern changes! I guess this could be both, fingers crossed though!

Over/Under 36 hours before it’s a rainy apps rubber?

6 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

What a difference 

GFS has been all over the place..I would put zero stock in the American model at this point in the game. Going to be reaaaalllly close on this one. Everything still on the table

00z Ukie for this weekend 

Tough mountain forecast this weekend. I booked a place on Sugar but I’m not paying $400 for the weekend to ski in a rain snow mix. I feel pretty good about it but Ray is still on the fence so that gives me cause for concern. Do you think we’ll know what we’re looking at for areas above 4K feet by Wednesday evening? Thanks

I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”.

11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The Feb 1st storm looks even better! Track closer to the coast, still no cold air! A nice Miller A , in late Jan/Early Feb, and we rain

It comes with the territory when you’ve got a juiced up STJ. Rain, and lots of it. 

Don’t show @mackerel_sky

48 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Can someone explain what the CFS model is? It’s showing big snow in roughly 280 to 300. Yes I am a desperate weenie but trying to learn what this model even does 

Basically, just disregard 

Couple more tics north from the euro and it’ll be seasonal and wet next week as opposed to seasonal and dry! Exciting model runs ahead

10 minutes ago, SteveRDU said:

Don’t we need that big High to be wayyyy further south?

Maybe if we could shift that big low in the Northeast NE another couple hundred miles it could help funnel colder air in and push that HP down out of SE Canada into NY state..I know, It’s a reach 

1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

Maggie valley for the win!


.

Unreal. Good for them

15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Do you have any evidence to counteract what he presented?

12z Euro showed a smidge if onset frozen up around Buncombe, Haywood, Yancey, McDowell counties..other than that, not much. Subject to change 

On 1/16/2020 at 11:10 AM, griteater said:

 

Looking a bit better this morning 

7 minutes ago, IWC said:

Wishing our lives away, 10 Days at a time...

 

Spring is basically here so this madness should come to a halt anytime now 

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’ll take it! Of course Kendra found a map with 100% rain!

Rule of thumb: Go with the warmest model 

1 hour ago, oconeexman said:

All we have to hang our hats on this winter

 

Sure beats a shutout winter..maybe 

2 hours ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Hope is dwindling, but it’s hope

Coastals usually tick back east in the last 48 hours. It will be crucial to get those bigger totals on land before the inevitable eastward jog