WarmNose

@mackerel_sky 

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Ok, so we weenies give local Mets and NWS crap for missing these forecasts, and some think oh well, they were wrong, but they try!? That was half assed forecasting at best,! Imagine if this was a weekday, and this unfolded? Kids at school, it’s puking snow, they cancel school early, roads are a disaster, parents and busses are scrambling to get kids home, parents and kids lives are at risk because the resources the school systems rely on, were totally wrong!? Rant over, thank god it was Saturday I guess, they already had a “ rain” day off of school Friday here in Greenville county!

Yeah not sure how they can discount the NAM in good faith when it is hands down spot on almost every time it snows here. WWA should have been hoisted in all northern upstate counties last night before people went to bed. Greenville county should have been a no brainer last night. Low impact here but it definitely warranted some public notice 

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I’m suprised they mentioned anything frozen, did not know they had that in their vocabulary 

How much did you tally up? Probably just over an inch on elevated surfaces here. Maybe a half inch in the Zoysia at one point. Not now. Could have been half a foot if clouds would have rolled in 90 minutes earlier 

I vote @mackerel_sky gets to start every storm thread for the foreseeable future  

Check out my snow, guys

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yep, bridges are caving on 385, 85 and even in Simpsonville area! Good call by all our local Mets and GSP!

Pounding snow for 3.5 hours and I only managed a half inch! #Winning

anybody heard from the brickmeister?

WYFF did not get this right. I’ve only got a dusting but it has snowed and snowed hard for the duration of the event. CJ dropped the ball here

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just starting here, or somebody’s fire ash just flew buy?

Sorry about that. I’ve got a stack of wood I wasn’t able to burn during the mid 70 stretch. No snow here yet. Raging virga storm overhead 

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Seneca might be S.C. sweetspot!

Snowing south of Atlanta and inside the Toccoa warm bubble. Man your battle stations. Incoming 

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

They’ve never ever been wrong!

You seen the new 00z 12k 10:1 snow map? 2.1” lollipop over warmNose ranch 

5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Latest HRR at the end of its run, juicy... valid for 10am Saturday morning. Gainesville is gonna get plastered!

Should have a full head of steam as it rolls into SC. HRRR seems a bit faster with onset

This was probably already posted but pretty good model consensus. You don’t want to be in the bullseye 14 hours out!

43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!

Whatever map Cedric just put out live on the air had Moderate snow north of 85 and a cold cold rain over our heads 

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

NM, just saw CJ Facebook post, downplaying as a non event, rain snow mix! Man, he’s the best!

If the timing is just a litttle faster he’s going to eat a plate full of bird stew. However, I’ll take another trace as long as brick gets shutout this winter 

15 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

RAP is always too warm at the surface at this range. furthermore, even it shows the freezing level only few hundred feet above the ground. All that precip would certainly be falling as snow. even if it doesn't have a chance to stick.

Hope you’re right. Nailed the last event for my area

RAP doesn’t like this one for Upstate SC. So for that reason, I’m out 

@mackerel_sky all aboard!

26 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

925= 2500'

Maybe a dumb question but I’ll ask it anyway. If 925’s are above freezing but you’re location is above 2500 feet, is it even an issue?

27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, temp down here were 37/38 and it stuck just fine, some places got 2-3” with BL temps in the upper 30s! We got to keep a wary eye out on that high , mid Feb sun angle!

Agreed. All we really need is a 64dbz supercell to pop and backbuild for an hour and a half and we should be money for an inch or two

Yeah I’ve got my eye on Maggie/Cataloochee this weekend. We’ll see 

46 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 

Not only is the arctic not going to be ice free this summer, it’s making gains. Not small gains either. It’s obvious the climate isn’t in the same state it was 40-50 years ago. No argument there. The doomsday predictions are what I struggle to understand. The fear mongering. I guess that’s what I don’t like about the other side of the argument.

7 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Who is saying that daily or annual sea ice extent would only monotonically decrease? 

Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out.

Where will it stop? Nobody knows. Ice is still on the rise. An arctic winter like this wasn’t supposed to happen.

Grandfather at sunrise