MikeB_01

I got a quick 1" this morning between 2:30 and 4:00 am. There was even a little sleet mixed in with that snow that feel at the tail end of that band this morinng. The second round has been all sleet.

I agree with the 1-2. I didn't like the 3" high mark they had. Here's hoping for the 4" surprise. Maybe the column saturates rapidly and we snow for 6 consecutive hours. I'll second you and put the positive vibes out there

beep... beep... beep... Back that truck on up. Was never quite sure why they were going with the higher amounts that they were. I feel like they sometimes forget how this area performs during snow systems.

Its been depicted on models for days, but we've stayed mostly out of it. I'll be watching to see the set up of the dry slot. That first wave and then the dry slot and then the main storm. The position of the dry slot and the duration will go a long way in to determining whether we get the low end or high end of the forecasted totals.

I was seeking and I found. Though it is a little old data --> 12z today. I did find the EPS data. I find it interesting that the 90% is up over 2" for KPIT. Just seems high to me. Maybe because the storm seems to be a little bit more zonal rather than amplified, we get a slightly slower change over than what we are used to. Maybe I am just wishing? Maybe i am crazy? Maybe I am seeing things because it is almost 1 am and I have been looking at the weather for the last 4 hours... Whatever it may be, I'm out. goodnight.

GFS continues to hang on to the cold air for longer. Not really how, but it seems like the high pressure that is moving in behind our system today is digging in hard. Not sure i buy it, but the GFS is showing it.

00z GFS is going with a cooler air column that what has been seen in the model in the previous runs. at preceip onset (12z sat morning) the precip is down to 26°. That is a 3° drop from 18z, a 2° drop from 12 z and a 3° drop from last nights 00z. This is also translating to the mid levels. Still flirting with 32°, but its an improvement from the other runs. I say this, but we all know how these systems work. WAA always wins. We will snow for the first 5 minutes, move to some brief sleet, freezing rain, and then turn on the garden hose. All rain. I'm hoping that I can get up early enough on Saturday to see some decent rates early in the morning.

Euro and the Ukie look almost identical. Anyone have access to the EPS? Would like to see the variability between the members.

Well, the Ukie could have been better lol

i'd take it... Until it changes, Im singing O Canada.

In case anyone is curious...

Euro showing a pretty decent thump on saturday. This if of course before a change over to some mix and then all rain. Not sure it pans out, but its something to watch.

Record day today. Also, the 12th january day on record to make it over the 70° mark

Just to mention ---> Candian and Euro have a pretty similar look in the upper levels for tuesday. Very different from 18z GFS. Im waiting up for the 00z gfs tonight. Curious to see if anything changes or if it continues to be slightly rainier than the euro

A day? That’s generous. I need to see it on the ground with my own eyes before I believe it .

Starting to see some signs of the models seeing cold during the first week of January - just need to hope we get the precip too.

10 year anniversary of a major screw job... https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

LOL

In case you want to do a little early analysis on how the storm is looking right now and what it will do, the 15z RAP is initializing really well. The thermal gradients are nearly perfect. The only thing that I am seeing different is the convergence area off the east coast. The current analysis is more norther/zonal and the model initialized has a more southern look to it. Eventually, the model brings that rain/snow/mix line right through AGC. Granted, these are fluid systems, but to me it looks like the system may track even a touch further north due to the area of convergence. Will be interesting to see how that changes over the course of the day.

My prediction for tonight --->

yuck... nasty Tuesday morning commute

keep in mind this is the 00z hires nam that is indicating a quick transition to some moderate snow that will amount in a few inches. I cannot for the life of me, figure out how this sounding profile yields snow. Any ideas? Am I looking at this wrong? It looks to me like it is still above freezing at 10,000 ft and no colder closer to the ground. No way this is snow - right?

Whether we get anything or not, the CPC and the models have been indicating a warm up somewhere around Christmas. Starting to see a flip in that. Here is the Euro. Check out the increased high latitude blocking [emoji102] .

I'm dreaming of a white christmas...

This is a few runs old, but its interesting to see that the EPS has the snowfall there. Both the ens and the op have the storm, just need to watch and see how the ingredients start to come together.