the_other_guy

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

you might have a point there, I could see them doing this lol

 

It was icy as hell last night. there was a fine layer of new snow on top of all the wet roads that froze.

The salt was needed and appreciated by 5pm haha

I don’t know I guess there’s a lot less snow on the ground on Long Island and in the city or something.

Because all these posts keep talking about snow down in Philadelphia and in Washington. And I’ve had snow on the ground since the last storm and I got more snow today and it’s a winter Wonderland and I don’t understand the fascination talking about Southern Jersey.

These posts make it seem like we have no snow on the ground and haven’t had snow on the ground all week.

It is very odd though. I can’t wait for next week when it’s gonna be 50 and there won’t be snow on the ground. I want to see the same people posting about how awful it is.

just went sledding with the kids. Excellent conditions because the ice from last week coupled by the couple of inches of new snow make it a fast chute.

Anybody know why I can’t post a photo on here even with a screenshot

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, total?

it’s a shit winter no doubt. But to say to the guy that there can’t be a ridge out west three weeks from now is totally ridiculous. and to write off the next 60 days is totally absurd. 

When you get to 3/7 and you see two weeks of warm weather, then you write off the winter. right now we’re still in the game and even a mediocre winter gives its chances.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb.....

don’t latch onto long range models and run with them. And don’t latch onto people having an agenda on this site and run with them.

The rest of January looks hostile, and then it looks to ease as we go into early February. 

But its mid winter and anything is possible. With certainty wont be warm thru 3/1

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good luck

you make me laugh too. what do you think it’s just gonna be 50 for the rest of the winter? 

10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Le Harve!

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

We're only about a month away from the sun angle becoming an issue. Really is remarkable how short the big snow season is around here. Most of December is pretty much lost and then you get that period between Christmas and say Presidents Day that I refer to as the meat of the snow season and then it's over, especially for the coast. Doesn't mean we can't have a snowy March. If I recall March 2017 was very snowy but I'm fairly certain that was a La Nina.

yeah, next week and the extreme warmth is a real kick in the balls in the heart of winter

finally have a snow day feel here in Westchester. Streets are all wet, but it’s sticking where it has to stick very nicely on top of the original snowpack.

When all is done in January, we will have had snow on the ground for about 10 days of the 30 day month.

I’ll take that as a win for a +5 month. And we live to fight for February.

my gut tells me unless a big one comes We are going to be solidly below average for snowfall this year. but if we can get another week like this in February that scratches your itch and you reload hopefully for next winter.

It’s been snowing at a good rate here in Westchester for several hours. It’s just not sticking anywhere but on top of the old snow. it’s making that look pretty at least.

This needed to happen at night for it to work

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They might be near their seasonal average to date after today

In a couple decades, this will be near your seasonal average too haha

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder when the last time DC had more snowfall than CPK? Was it really 09/10?

 

yeah, but this is a shit winter for them too. You’re comparing two piles of shit and wondering who’s is bigger

09/10 was good for all. 

11 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Our peak warm spells this winter have been in MJO 8 1, what does that tell you?

and they’ve been accompanied by a lot of posts asking why MJO doesn’t work anymore when predicting patterns.

interesting take on this and I appreciate your post

Since this isnt much of a storm anyway, I’ll take the lesser of the storm and have the kids in school.

In the past few weeks, we’ve had too many closures and delays for about 4 inches of snow. It’s just too disruptive to our lives.

Snow starting in Westcheter.

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. 

this is what I meant. insanity  enjoy the snow

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've always looked for north+some elevation for the ideal combo.  The reason why I selected Mt Sinai is because it has some elevation compared to say, Port Jefferson or anywhere else right on the sound.  Where in Queens did you used to live-- was it near Whitestone? I imagine it was very snowy there too back in the day before UHI.

Muttontown for Nassau County is an interesting story.  They routinely get colder than anywhere on the island outside of Westhampton (KFOK), I've also noticed they hang onto snowcover long after the rest of Nassau County is down to pavement and blacktop lol.

Westchester is another interesting story, back when I was trying to keep much closer track of rain/snow lines for the north shore, the three official reporting stations I'd use were LaGuardia Airport, White Plains and Bridgeport (and sometimes New Haven although they don't measure snow there anymore, but they do report weather conditions.)  One thing I noticed is that the north shore's rain snow line was usually somewhere between LaGuardia and White Plains, but sometimes the north shore did stay snow longer than Bridgeport did although never quite as long as New Haven did.  It's just another way to estimate annual snowfall without official data-- trying to figure out who changes over to rain or freezing mix least quickly lol.

 

Whitestone. It used to very suburban. Totally changed in density over last 20 years as has most of queens

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I looked for a sweet spot based on your detailed snowfall maps of the region and I'd say for Nassau County it's near Muttowntown and for Suffolk County (and Long Island in general), it's somewhere between Miller Place and Mt Sinai.  We have snowfall measuring stations there I believe?

It’s funny you should say this because I’ve lived in wading River since the 80s, we also had a house in Queens. And it was snowier in Queens by a lot.

Granted, when you move inland, just a few miles toward Brookhaven national lab, you lose the effect of being on the immediate water.

But living out there for most of my childhood, I would never say it’s as cold or as snowy, as where I am in Westchester now. 

As queens has warmed dramatically with the UHI and general warming, I would say it’s definitely colder out there than Queens and probably snowier now.

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro...........

January is a plus 5 month with no snow going into this. You are lucky you are getting this week in what will be an awful winter weather month.

Here comes another 7 days above freezing for next week

52 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Cause a week that had such potential is basically turn into a cold non event  week 

Well in fairness, you had snow on ground for a week. there was a possibility of 0 for a while there last weekend.

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........

but you don’t need to Nowcast for a general idea. Yesterday’s event was very well forecasted.

It was a 1-3 event with a glaze of ice and rain on Long Island and immediate coast.

What you have going on here are people wish casting and picking models That agree with whatever they want. more alarmingly, you have a national weather service that is posting a bit too much on social media and getting into a sensationalist type agency.

As for the forum, it always went on. But it’s gotten into a new level and it’s quite upsetting.

Ultimately, it leads to disappointment and people saying the models fucked up. But they didn’t fuck up. People just chose an outlier and tried to form a trend in their minds. and they are armed with a nice colorful map from the national weather service that they end up on the low end of and call it a bust.

Unless something drastically changes, Friday is another 1-3 event with more cold air. you can nowcast idiosyncrasies as they happen. but you can’t make this a 6 inch storm, and then say the forecast was wrong… unless there is model consensus on a drastic change in the next 48 hours.

whatever Friday brings, enjoy it. And enjoy this week because it ends sunday and there is no return date…yet

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Most of our strong Nino snowfalls are inside a short favorable window. The blizzard of 2016 was sandwiched between warmth 

This week is probably your winter. I hate to say that and hope Im wrong, but I think Im right

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Score a huge win for the NAM and the RGEM the two major mesoscale/regional models, as both models have been calling for significant freezing rain (ZR) since Sunday morning and generally weren't joined by the global models in predicting appreciable ZR until Monday morning or afternoon.  

Lets stop with the win/bust declarations until this is all over.

Obviously a dynamic situation here

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

palisades parkway is a nightmare, no plow in sight and definitely ice all over the road, saw a tahoe banged up on the side of the road.

What would they plow? You need salters for days like this. Roads are wet going to icy