the_other_guy

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

..are you predicting that your favorite baseball team's season is going down the drain???

Mets so…

I had my mini snow. All set for pitchers and catchers  City can make it 1065. Why not?

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

KC's great. Rest of the state not so much

Doesnt KC average like 18 inches of snow per year? Much lower than us

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Seems it's still 7-10 days away for anything decent-next 2 storms are raging cutters.

Well that goes without saying. Done thru Sunday. But then it looks nice and cold for more than 3!!! days

Question is will that be wasted or does something pop next Tuesday.

You be surprised, you get a nice 6 incher that stays on ground for a week or so, and people have a different outlook. Another one in February and even if thats your winter, you were in the game.

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Low was only 32 here, was forecasted to drop to 26. I cant remember the last time we had a decent snowfall followed by colder weather moving in right afterwards. 11" at the stake, 32/27 currently 

32.7 all night even with snow on ground. Its true. Snowfall sticking around is the biggest change in last 10 years.

Like Raleigh now haha. Pandemonium and gone all in a few days

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

You know I jest, right? 

Now, I just need to ensure that my log cabin along the 287 trail is secure and mother has acquired provisions for the harsh winter prior to this gale. 

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

From a weather perspective both Brooklyn and queens have shorelines susceptible to severe coastal flooding and often get the same high winds as Nassau and Suffolk. JFK often gusts just as high as the ASOS sites on the island. Southern queens and Brooklyn also suffered severe flooding in sandy, etc. 

 

so for weather purposes Brooklyn and queens are often lumped in with the island 

Per the the United States Supreme Court, Brooklyn and Queens are not part of Long Island. Long Island is its own geographic area beginning at the Queens border.

As for the storm, I love all the uncertainty around a few inches of snow, and all the absolute certainty when it comes to a rainstorm in the same timeframe from storm start.

This photo from today into HPN.

You can see the rain/snow line ran on 95 thru Port Chester.

The Sound totally fucked over Coastal Westchester and of course the north shore of LI

Can someone put the 287 horse and buggy up again?

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Violently disagree

What an adjective for Sunday at 830am

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Interesting but knew the line would be sharp in this type of storm. The differences north to south and east to west in lower Westchester seem pretty dramatic.

We didnt catch the maritime affect east/west in models for westchester. Water is warm

6 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Taking Metro North from Croton Harmon  back the city, really amazing the differences in snow between Yonkers and Riverdale. 

This was modeled between all the variations. A rain/snow line thru the northern bronx. Glad it panned out

the best rain/snow line indicator around…

2 inches or so in Hastings

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The cutoff is sharp. Nothing here and thurway cameras show Ridge Hill part of Yonkers completely snow covered.

Hastings is well covered. I guess the Sound fucked you

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new 12z RGEM is almost identical to the 6z Euro, midlevel mixing issues south of Orange/Passaic, nothing at all along and south of 287: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010612&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps

Enough. No snow south and east of 287. You have been saying it for days.

Tomorrow take your victory lap

10 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

If its the Hojo, it certainly isnt!

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I need to read it-- whats the title?

I believe the Rising Sea, but don’t hold me to that. They all have plots that have to do with the water.

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so if we want to change the climate, the first thing we need to do is change the ocean circulation, hmmmm

That is the basis of a good Clive Cussler book fyi

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The point and click for HPN is 3-6 inches.

Yonkers is 2-4 inches.

Would expect  advisories soon for the southern part of the county.

 

 

but I don’t think those amounts are bullish given the model runs we’ve been seeing.

I think going one to three in Central Park is probably bullish

45 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NWS is pretty bullish for Westchester and Rockland compared to recent model trends.  

I don’t think they’re being bullish at all. At least compared to AccuWeather, which I know is a for-profit entity.

No watches warnings advisories nothing

and if I read my text forecast its showing rain with snow mixed in

This map looks exactly like many of the model runs

Belleayre today. 23F

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Transfer to the bx or uptown 

that’s really the key. It’s not like Long Island. You get north of the cross county and you have no traffic the whole way.

Just now, MJO812 said:

The only thing that is stopping me from moving to Orange County is the traffic to my job.

get a new job. Once you leave the city, it’s like a breath of fresh air literally and figuratively. life is just easier.