the_other_guy

34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was just referring to expectations. By the early 90s they were very low 

True.

But the next 93-94 will feature a VA type climate. 

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Back in the 70's and 80's a 3 inch snowstorm was a big deal..Believe me the climate between 02-18 was not NYC snow climate..Again it's not this bad..but 20 inches a year is common.

It was cold then and warm now. this is simply unprecedented in terms of extended warmth over multiple seasons.

Nina, Nino, Neutral, MJO, doesnt really matter. Its warm.

Even with this pattern change, I don’t see one below normal or even normal day over the next 15

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meh we kinda came to expect crappy winters with 1 or 2 3 to 6" events by that point. We weren't spoiled with 60" winters

Too warm now. 1-3 happens with 30s/20s split.

Our climate is now 40s/30s split. you need a big storm that pulls in cold air for that so it becomes all or nothing thing.

That has been on display for the last 20 years but it’s been masked by the amount of big storms we had

as for the comparison between the 70s and 90s… stop doing it. It’s a much warmer climate, and while there may be similarities in terms of storm track and background state, the reality is we are so far removed from any winter weather at this point there’s nothing in that time That even comes comes close 

the good thing about this weather is when you have a major party in December, you can keep every drink outside without worrying about it freezing and you don’t have to clean up the bar before bed. It’s just a great recipe for nice cold drinks that won’t freeze on you!

Merry Christmas everyone! 40F in Westchester!

26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Been through enough of them that I generally write major snows off for the winter especially if December is snowless. Gotta worry about mice infestations destroying the snowblowers at this point; two years of no usage. Talking to folks in other parts of the country and it doesn't feel that wintry in most places.

Somebody posted a pic of a snowy train coming out of Grand Central in the early 90s. and a lot of the comments in the general public were oh that’s when it used to snow in New York.

People are starting to notice now. It takes a while for the general public to notice, but people are really starting to.

I’ll go with my old adage… December is snowless the winter ahead is gonna be shit. Better hope for a one hit wonder because that’s probably it if we haven’t had snow by December 31

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

1952 1957 1963 1969 2002 2009

List the ones that were bad. We did this already.

You got your Nino reset. Lets hope it plays out like you want. Id like to see AN snow.

12 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The amount of weenies in this forum that cannot handle the factual truth so far this winter season is somehow shocking to me. 

come on, there’s too many opinions, agendas and narratives floating around in between factual truth. don’t confuse the two or the arguments that are going on because of one not the other.

Too many supposed experts, are making this Dec 2015 or 1997 with little factual evidence to back themselves up. that is where the arguments ensue, not over the facts

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Do you think this is all CC-related, or patterns like El Niño amplifying CC to make it worse?

(Probably an open-ended question, but wanted the opinion of someone who knows what they’re talking about. Thanks!)


.

Option 2. El Niños are always bad, and it’s amplified with CC

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What's the difference between that and say, 1982-83 or 2015-16?  The latter was even warmer than this one, the main difference being the warmest anomalies this time around are in MN.

 

that’s correct. Minnesota is in the bull’s-eye now and in 2015 we were in the bull’s-eye.

I believe that blizzard in 2015-2016 that saved the season involved a lot of luck. I only say that because we really didn’t have any snow or any winter weather outside of that and a cold snap in February that lasted for a few days.

I wouldn’t look for something like that to happen again this year. It would be too coincidental. Ninos are often known for their one hit wonders. The question is how big that hit will be.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/21/weather/us-winter-temperatures-climate-change/index.html

Article has some good nuggets imbedded with the fluff

22F this morning. I imagine we drop another degree or two. that would make it one of the coldest nights of the season thus far.

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again

+3 is insane? Novel

I would say precip amounts insane.

5 hours ago, mannynyc said:

Obviously not great but a 1-3 degree F anomaly doesn't mean it can't or won't snow, though it certainly will be harder. This shouldn't be used as a declaration of winter being over.

Almost every month is 1-3 AN. Dont know why guys expect 3 months of winter to be different than the other 9 months. Certainly not unusual

It’s 34F with a stiff wind out. I just read the last several posts and I think you guys are in a disturbing echo chamber.

I want to know where the grass is green and growing, where its warm, and where it doesnt feel and look like Dec 19th right now. Enjoy the cold week Gloomy Doomys. It will be rainy and 50 next week

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

You know the pattern is terrible when the storm goes by and the "cold air" after the storm drops the temp to 50.

it’s gonna be quite the cold week. Just let’s have some patience. 

16 minutes ago, justinj said:

The beaches took an absolute hammering 

I’ve lived on the beach in Wading River since the mid 80s. Our worst damage was never summer hurricanes, but winter noreasters. The hurricanes are less frequent and tend to be weakening By the time they reach us. The winter storms are strengthening as they reach us and cause huge amounts of erosion

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just wrapped up. 3.45" total. 6.5 for the month

Like a snow report from 20 years ago. Oh well

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The full month ranking in a few weeks won’t be significantly different. We aren’t talking just two years here. There have been 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months to only 1 coldest month since 2015 at our local stations. 

But after you say it over and over again, whats the point?

Like this is the 700th day without an inch of snow at a Mid Atlantic station. New record. Tomorrow new record too for 701.  

Truth is, not nearly as warm as some want to make it out to be this December. Certainly not a torch. If you end with a +2-3, January could easily be warmer in this new climate. Nothing outstanding about it at all.

17 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

This seems like a meaningless post…. 

Just important to note that there is a lot of time before the northern fringe of the storm actually hits and that rain hours earlier than expected probably isnt an indication that:

1. the storm has arrived early

2. forecasts are wrong

3. the storm will be worse than thought

It may be any of those things, but the band of rain over NJ isnt reason to call Noah yet. But as I said when I flew through it last night, there is plenty of rain and wind headed to NYC

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Already raining hours earlier than expected. Coming down nicely.

The first circle is you in Hoboken.

The second circle is the storm 400 miles away.

I just flew through the storm into Orlando. In terms of big storms, really not too bad. Some light turbulence. No moderate.  

A constant, steady, wind swept rain in Orlando currently. But nothing down here is flooded in terms of roads or airports.

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Honest question, are we going to have some shots at snow, or is this going to be like last year? Or is it too early to tell?


.

No one on this forum can answer that. But statistically, you should have a winter of 15-25 inches and be slightly warmer than normal.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t really had a mean on Long Island since the early 90s. Just a bunch of all or nothing snowfall seasons. Completely different from the 60s to early 90s with numerous snowfall years near the median. 
 

That is because you destroyed the atmosphere with your Buick in 1987.

The all or nothing will gradually become mostly nothing and then nothing

I’ve got to tell you it’s beautiful outside after a cold week. This reminds me of living in Daytona Beach in January. A nice way to do winter… a few cold days and then a warm-up.