the_other_guy

33 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wait. 34 and not 33 or 31 - literally who the hell cares if there is no precip associated. I love weather and storms but the constant talk about low temps when it literally doesn’t matter at all without precip is fascinating to me.

It is a weather forum in a season that is slowly disappearing.

It is like talking about old LIRR train cars as the new models slowly roll out. 

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Queens near Douglaston/Bayside is also a lot colder pretty often vs the more built up areas and averages more snow. If there’s any place in the city I’d want to live for a slightly better shot at more wintry precip it’d be there, or northern Bronx.

Whitestone was always like that too. The LGA Heat Island killed it

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who on this forum specifically called for a Merry Torchmas for NYC Metro?  I know for sure that I didn’t. 

You didnt!

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term. 

A LOT of people. Lets cut the BS Bluewave. I even saw Merry Torchmas.

We could debate a lot of things, let’s at least stay in reality here

28F this morning.

Dont look now, but…looks like that storm really pulls in a lot of cool air behind it. haha 

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is a deluge with the storm for next week. It then pulls down cold air . Pattern change ?

what you’re seeing is the guys that profess gospel two or three weeks out leave themselves open to being wrong. Nobody could predict the weather or the specific patterns three weeks out. It is a generalization.

What you’re looking at is a December with a marginal air mass interrupted by three or four days at a time of warmth. It isn’t a torch. it isn’t 2015.

You get a big storm, cold air gets pulled in, things happen. 

That’s why I’m not so quick to praise people for predicting things with certainty when no such certainty exists in this science

Belleayre today. No snow guns on as they told me there was a Temp Inversion last night as others have posted

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z and 6z gfs cut the warmup down  . Maybe a miracle happening ?

Fri-Mon. Then marginal air.

Like it rained every weekend in Fall, we shoot for 60 every weekend in Dec. No biggie

anyone notice how warm the overnight Lows are on this cold week? I should easily be below freezing right now…but Im not. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Why they nailed it why you were still barking -NAO

because how you act makes a difference. Im with MJO on this. 

41 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

A broken clock is still right twice a day. That said statistics is still against a shutout snow wise here this year. 

This^

Belleayre got 7 inches and has 25 trails open. Anyone wanna car pool Wednesday? haha

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep must be great to be a snow weenie up there. We live in a terrible area.

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We can't buy a big cold outbreak anymore . Winter is dying on the east coast.

 

Man, it’s really all or nothing with you.

Just some advice, you need to check some of the emotion on these posts. Its not as bad or good as you think. It isnt a 2015 redo, and it isnt 1993.

+2-4 month with little to no snow unless we get lucky

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We had a big slop storm here in early Feb that dropped 8-9 inches that year.  That plus the blizzard made for a decent 3 week stretch but that was about it.  After the cold snap winter was over that year..

That was a N W storm right? I remember not much in city

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Christmas actually felt like Christmas last year with temps in the single digits on Christmas eve morning.

Oh please it was a two day cold snap that was already warming up by Christmas Day. It was alarming how we can’t keep cold for more than 48 hours now even when it’s that deep.

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's my hope here.  It's going to take awhile to get north America cold again after the upcoming torch.  I could see us struggling into January for sure....

would you call 2016 a 3 to 4 week winter?

That was one mega storm, that immediately melted. There was a cold snap in February. Those are the only two notable things that winter. There was a lot of warmth around that

Wind picked up at night. In general, if this was a snowstorm, I would have been disappointed by result. Underperformed all around. Rain snow line racing east->for mood flakes.

Backside snow never works out in NYC. DC and BWI are better positioned for this (when it rarely works) as they are further inland off coast. In NYC this is Fools Gold

i’m outside, walking the dog and typing this in flip-flops and shorts and a T-shirt.  -RA can’t make this up for 12/10. We had a heavy batch of rain that lasted from 840 till 9 PM and that was it. That was the heaviest all day.

30 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yup, I’ll take the over on +3 despite the next week of weather.  Torch will trend very impressive to end the month, warmest of the month despite temps over 60 today

You always skew too warm. MJO skews to cold. If you go over, Ill take the under.

Stick around enough, and you get the biases in everyones calls

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wind starting to roar now, gusts to 30 or so, has that sound now

I think being east, you were exception to the rule. Steady on and off. Not much here at all and not any notable wind thus far. Tonight…

I wonder how many people canceled plans today based on the storm hysteria. Most of this will come while we are asleep.

4 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Why are we freakin hyping 97-98?..lol..it didn't snow at all in the winter months..I mean I think some here are jumping the gun.

A lot of people here are jumping the gun, not only on the winter but on this month.

21 days left, and it looks slightly above average. It doesn’t look like a torch. Everything is in play when you see a bunch of 40s in the day over a 2 to 3 week period

16 minutes ago, North and West said:

Geez.

Literally the trade-off of having an advancing civilization, which allows us to instantaneously have these very pleasant conversations across long distances.

(I do have hope and believe that we will find a way to cleanse more carbon out of the air and sequester it during our lifetimes, even if it’s at the end.)


.

well, that’s the debate of a lifetime and of a generation. No answers and probably no quick solutions.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last decade has been about 6.6° warmer than the late 1800s in December. So we currently have the same December temperatures that used to be common in Virginia in the late 1800s.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.7	40.7
2022	38.5	38.5
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

Bam. I think this is really important because a lot of the 30 year averages are smoothing Just how bad it has become in the last 15 years.

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the -ao has become useless along with the -nao without pac help 

I really think you guys dig into the nitty-gritty a little bit too much. December is just 5 to 10° warmer than it used to be. the normals kind of skew it because it’s over a 30 year period, but that’s where we are at now. i’m looking at those mid 40s Christmas week and that’s pretty normal now. plus 5-10. That isn’t even a torch anymore.